Quick Note

Not getting any prettier out there so far.

The broad market is getting hit hard on rising volume; breadth is significantly negative; new 52-wk lows are expanding to bearish levels again; the Semi's have cracked well beyond new-low territory; the Nasdaq is currently trading below the November low; there are few positives to speak of.

Solars are holding reasonably well. Biotechs and drugs also (GENZ is bucking the tape very nicely), so none of my remaining position is looking terribly bad; no cause for celebration yet, however.

I've shorted a first-tranche of semi CYMI at 34.08; looking to get short others, or else get hedged if we don't see any improvement. I will unload MICC below the 111 low today, if it takes that out. I may let go of FWLT as well, depending. And the potential for serious profit taking to suddenly grip the solars is a real threat. I'm willing to unload JASO and YGE in a hurry if I sense that action; not yet there, however.

[Edit: finished the CYMI position, adding 2nd tranche at 34.21]
[Edit: added TWM (Russell 2000 Ultrashort) at 77.33 as hedge - presently biggest position here; until market firms or until I unload long stocks; whichever becomes more necessary]

Standing Small

Okay, the market's frying an egg on my head at the moment...but I've got more outs than MacGyver on a Saturday night.

Jobs growth? Strong economy? Hell, I can't remember when. And lower rates ahead are now a further given. We'll see how this develops. In the end, I take my cues from the market, not from fried eggs in my head...I will respond accordingly; whether I like it or not.

Fortunately I unloaded 2 out of 3 dogs late yesterday (COH and C), basically due to the weak last hour and this here big jobs report on the docket. At the immediate-open today, I unloaded the 3rd (SBUX, 18.45). So I am stinging slightly, but I am holding nothing but nets and strong names at the moment. My overall position now is not heavy.

I'm a little nervous about FWLT, since it is my heaviest regard and it may actually need a decent economy to keep higher. Neo-drug makers ONXX and GENZ, however, really shouldn't mind such noise. As far as the solars...we'll have to watch and respond.

Identify - Predict -Decide - Execute. That's what we learned in driving school. Put a big rig in my hands and throw the throttle. I'm ready for this. I'll get short in an Andy Griffith minute if I am forced...

[Edit: I did trim back the newer FWLT shares at 167 on a bounce. ONXX is back to my largest holding at the moment] [Currently long ONXX, MICC, FWLT, GENZ, JASO, YGE, CAF - ranked by size]

Further

I unloaded C and COH late in the day. They will probably rally tomorrow, but I have plenty of stock here now and if the jobs report due before the market is a negative I don't need 3 loser stocks in the mix to fight against the grain with. I'm giving SBUX one more day (what a pig).

Next year I think I will pick the losing stocks for the wk-1 parity trade after the year starts and I see the life. Then I would have been riding higher in something like SHLD instead of strangling on Citigroups, Starbucks and Coach purse strings.

I also added more FWLT late today at 167.45, making that one my largest position.

The good news is how well the rest of the portfolio is acting. The market cross currents are extreme right now but the portfolio was up pretty sharply today; even with the above loser-longs and a market which has yet to trend anything higher in '08. I still think the aggressive-growth names look good for January, assuming we don't crack on the jobs report tomorrow (and I have to seriously doubt that potential).

'night

Solar Candy...and some other good stuff

If I'm understanding this market, I am really beginning to like the prospects for being long aggressive growth in January.

Overall, selling pressure is subsiding (my read, anyway) and many of the stronger sectors (basically the same leaders as in December) are starting to bolt higher.

The bottom line - January is typically a strong month for small/medium aggressive growth stocks and many of these are now breaking out to higher highs; from decent consolidation patterns. And while there are cross-currents out there (including some pockets of horror and malaise), the areas of strength are determined and becoming powerful.

I let go of all shorts in the opening 30 minutes today. I'm adding to longs and surveying for new potential plays.

Given the power in many of the biotech/drug names, I added to GENZ (ave. 75.34). I am looking to possibly add to an already heavy position in ONXX, which looks like a breakout is imminent. I say that, because look at the action in a name like TEVA; which is now on my 'get-this-bugger-soon' list. The biotech group looks live where it is live and should be a decent play for this month (where it is live - be selective).

Building and heavy-construction leader FWLT also looks like a breakout is imminent. I already have a heavy position there, having added more yesterday. This group remains strong, but the leader here is enough for me at the moment.

I added back MICC today (ave. 117.60), as it crossed back above the 10-day and the chart is simply beautiful. The telecom/wireless services group remains mostly very strong and shopping for January shells here is not a bad plan.

The Agri-groups also remain fire-hot. SYT, a new beast, makes chemicals for growing corn (yikes) and other worthless and stupid agri-stuff and is breaking higher; looking very live. This one is on my attack list.

Okay, let's move on to the Insane-Jane - Super Porno Solar Group (Energy Other - Woot!)

I added back to JASO when it was lower today (ave. 72.68). I need more. the solars remain uber-hot (which is a lot of the reason I remain bullish for January) JASO started up late yesterday when the market was still worsening (something which causes salivation glands in me to activate). Now that the market is/might be (ha!) turning, JASO is kicking back in to the upside. Butter butter butter butter - solar butter is better for Poptarts.

AKNS, mentioned yesterday, is the newest porno-long in the solar group (I never got it; quality is a little suspect for me and it is extended now). CSIQ still looks very powerful and barely pulled back on the market weakness. SOLF and ASTI also remain insanely hot (suspect quality). STP, SPWR, FSLR, ESLR and YGE remain merely...hot. I haven't mentioned this in a while, but this group reminds me of when the networking stocks were young and hot, when CSCO was a budding baby and wouldn't trend lower no matter how much pressure the market in the early 90's could throw at it. Obviously, there is going to be a lot of shuffling with these solars and some of them will eat your grand children's dowry money (go to ZERO), but the industry-group as a whole has arrived and it is the real deal.

We'll be eating out of solar toasters and driving solar hot dog carts, surfing solar chuck wagons and driving Miss Daisy solar Continentals soon enough...judging by the money flow into this stuff this last 12 months now.

Solar is a beast. I've got solar girdle panels on order from Solar Macy's. Solar candy from Barton's, WWF solar dolls off of Ebay. This group is apparently going to soak up all the market hot-money this month, so it's apparently solar suicide for the shorts.

HOKU, which has some technology I don't understand (somehow related to the solar group), is breaking out. This name has an enormous short position (~25%), so I'm likely passing there. The shorts tend to do their homework and I tend to avoid being long any big short-interest stocks. The chart here is interesting though.

Ok, I just added back my YGE position at 38.75. This one is doing pretty strong volume today and is beginning to resolve higher. We'll see if it can't go mid evil on the tape here.

Current Position (all long and according to size) [ONXX, FWLT, MICC, GENZ, C, COH, JASO, YGE, SBUX, CAF] ...note, C, SBUX and COH are the losers-for-wk-1 play. Will be gone soon enough and sooner if the market is not firming here.

Quick Note

I have covered all shorts here; first half-hour of trading today. Lost a small touch on FSLR, but gained nicely on WFR and especially AAPL trades.

The market is stabilizing. If it can turn up here the smaller growth stocks are the place to put new money. I'm loading shotguns and pulling rubber bands over harpoons now.

I am already long a handful of names coming into today, but I'm willing to fire fresh as the market proves something.

Intriguing Action

The action remains poor today, but something is missing for a complete breakdown here.

Indeed, volume is on the heavy side and rising; the indices are showing big %-declines; some key stocks are breaking important levels while the Nasdaq is breaking its 200-day (so if these do not pivot-back higher, they are broken from a trading perspective); Europe is following suit; the Semi's are getting hit very hard; the dollar is hit again; gold is breaking out to the upside; oil is approaching the $100 level.

...but with this many clear negatives I would expect market breadth to be 3-1 negative at least, and that just is not the case. We are presently closer to 2-1 negative on Nasdaq and less than that even on the NYSE at this point.

This will be interesting - we are either beginning a decent slide lower now, or we are setting up for a good pivot-higher. Either way, I like the volatility and I'll grab this wave; see which way it wants to break.

I covered half of the AAPL short at 193.20 (this was my largest position for today by far; no longer). I am adding a bit more short to WFR now.

I've been hit on the SBUX today, but other longs here are more than holding their own while my shorts are dropping very nicely (nice image). Others longs at moment remain COH, C, FWLT, GENZ and ONXX.

I will cover the remaining AAPL if it can get back and hold above its 10-day (193.65). I will try to hold the FSLR and WFR further , unless the market manages to recover strongly in the remaining few hours. Something which is entirely possible given the lack of negative breadth.

First Grind

My 'opposite-day' scheme was tipped a little in the wrong direction by two untimely analyst calls. AMZN was upgraded and SBUX was downgraded; both by major firms.

I actually blew-out the AMZN trade for a quick, small loss in the pre-session (94.50); since the market was not trading lower. I have held onto the SBUX so far, for the same reason. So far it is acting pretty poorly; I'll be keeping a short leash there.

The solar group is still (mostly) hot so far today, especially the smaller names. I was nervous being short FSLR seeing AKNS up a million % on the pre-mkt tape - and all of the group was getting some activity; all higher. The fact that FSLR is hardly handing me my own head now (it is reversing down early in the regular session at moment), makes me think I may be fine on this plan. This chart looks quite ripe for profit-taking. I may hold out short here until we get the first real slice down; unless the market gets hot again first.

I'm looking for other '07 winners now, where a slice-down looks imminent. In FSLR, or any of the others I might take on, I will cover and take profits on the first significant slice-down. And I won't hold any which insist on continuing to trend higher.

I don't have any serious scenarios for the overall market at the moment. I didn't like the market's action last week, especially the inability to the fade the events in Pakistan, the geopolitical implications and new uncertainties, etc. I may keep things relatively simple for the time being.

OK, I just added 50% to my FSLR short (ave. 266.40; my overall position ave. now is 268.25). The market action is overall sluggish or weak and I am hunting more '07 winners which look like a slice-down might be imminent (did I say that already?). I'm going to keep net-short for the moment (biotechs aside).

[Edit: I went short WFR (ave. 88.78); another extended '07 winner which looks ripe for profit taking. The market is weakening further now and Semi's are acting the worst today].

[Edit: Market worsening still; Naz flirting with breaking the 200-day m.a and GOOG is a few points below the key 50-day m.a., on rising volume. I remain net-short, not counting the ONXX and GENZ (long bio's), but I did add FWLT long (ave. 157.18)- which just cannot sell-off here and remains higher on heavy volume].