I don't have anything brilliant to share, so I'll keep things brief.
It may or may not be late in the game for this rally (brilliant!). And while I'm not going to fight the larger trend (certainly not in a January month), for the time being I'm not looking to invest in it either.
I'll keep a swing-trade approach for now.
Today's open then turned out to be a perfect exit-point for taking profits. And while I was selling with both hands at the open, I wish I had been selling with both feet as well. Regardless, I've lightened dramatically and I can do almost anything from here; as things develop.
...Or I can take time-out to drive to Mavericks and watch the market from my phone instead. Maverick's may see 40'+ waves by Wednesday; which seems more exciting than near-term prospects for trading; at least at the moment.
Total Position: 100% net-long, 16% invested (down from 57% at Friday's close) Currently Long (according to size): CML (5.3%); CISG (4.3%); WATG; (3.8%); VIT (2.8%) *See the Twittspitt for details on today's exit-sells
Currently Short: no current position Futures Accounts: No current position
It's been a decent week for me, and like any red-blooded trader I'm absolutely dying to book profits. Take meat off the table, protect the gains and party over the weekend like it's 1999.
Can't do it. Tie me to the mast. At least until Monday...
Yes, had we not had disappointing jobs data, which kept this rally briefly checked (I'd have sold into a bang-up open had it gone the other way), it would be different. Instead the indices are stable-boring, while underneath the surface growth is quietly driving higher. Growth stocks are leading again (not unusual in January), as they have all week; the Chinese names listed in the US especially.
And then there's Monday...
The biggest rally days since the March bottom have occurred on Mondays. Nine out of the last ten Monday's have been up-days (that I have confirmed) and I am looking at un-confirmed data that 16 out of the previous 18 Monday's were winners.
It gets wilder. I don't have time to confirm all of the following (blame TransworldDepravity if any of it turns out to be inaccurate ;), but here it is anyway...
Since the March 9th, the Dow has had 30 "up" Mondays (or Tuesdays after a Monday holiday) out of a possible 43. That's equal to 70 percent. And 16 of the past 18 Mondays being "up" (I just mentioned) equals 89 percent. Then incredibly, 80 percent of all the point-gains since March 9th came on those 30 Monday up-days.
Read that last line again. It's truly amazing; the stuff conspiracy theories thrive upon; It must be wrong; I better go check this out and report back :)
Add this to Mole's point yesterday about the ISEE and I'm going to speculate the obvious:
Monday we'll see a strong tape, we'll see the ISEE hit a 240 trigger and Stupid Lucky here will bank sick profits and call it a day. The fact that the growth is surging today and the majors are quiet is a big factor, on top of the Monday data, since this is the type of tape I'm used to seeing a day ahead of a big, capping rally.
Monday then I can exit most of this (hedge-off the remainder only after the market begins downward) and begin to relax; focus again on Maverick's, which may see 30' surf by mid-week (Jaws in Hawaii might see 40'+ by Monday; this, according to buoy data which is starting to make waves).
Don't think I'm not going to mention that. If you like your swells big, well, big swells are looming.
I'm shopping for helmet cams as we speak (tough to do when sitting on one's hands) and planning to emulate Niagara Falls over a barrel; jamming my jetski right into the bowl by Big Wednesday next week.
Total Position: 100% net-long, 57% invested Currently Long (according to size): CYD (7.5%); SWN (6.1%); VIT (6%), HMIN (5.6%); RINO (5.5%); CML (5.3%); HEAT (4.6%); CAAS (4.5%); CISG (4.5%); WATG (3.8%) Currently Short: no current position Futures Accounts: No current position (see the Twittspitt for details)
I’m not as fast as I used to be and I miss a lot of opps to book good, quick profits and then fire-back again on the first entry; grinding grinding grinding each day to another 200% year.
But I don’t blow-up every couple of years anymore either.
So there you go - age will slow you down, gumption wanes and aversion to risk grows. And if you don’t exercise the soul you’re as good as walking-dead by age 30 (not joking). At the same time though, you learn something which might be valuable; should you insist on paying attention.
One of the things I’ve learned is - the market is bigger than me, it doesn’t care about me and therefore if I want to make money (and never blow-up), then I don’t care about me. I don’t give a rat’s ass what I think.
Even though I’m analyzing all the time, I don’t give it much credit if it flies in the face of what is happening on the tape. There is an art to this, and there is a burn when things churn, but in general I believe it is best to discount conviction and over-weight an actual trend.
If I don’t agree with the market, I can go on vacation. Or else I can agree with the market.
This is not a blow-my-own-horn brag-post. This is a response to seeing mistakes of my past flowing through the comments of this and other sites. Guys who have been short for a lengthy period are fighting fighting fighting and all the while their conviction and energy is waning waning waning. When the market turns down, even though I’m such a withered snail, I will get short and I will believe in my position.
I won’t be exhausted and I won’t need to take a quick profit just to prove those still exist.
I’m not telling you guys to get long here. There are a lot of sloppy signs right now and you are pointing out more and more every day (and then more and more the next day ;). But learn how to surf my friends. Wait for the chop to pass before paddling out; especially in the bigger swells. Don’t blow-up!
That’s it. I’m going back to buying stupid stocks now which are still rising. If it weren’t January I’d be on vacation instead, like you wish you had been (I know because I’ve been there - I have a right to give us both a hard time; I don’t take it personally; hope you don’t either).
I've posted more on money flows, this time highlighting the Energy-Other group, just now on ES HERE.
I'm still adding names today, though this might be about the maximum. If I add from here, it will likely be coincident with reducing elsewhere. Smaller growth names, especially Chinese, continue to out-perform; so I continue to work them.
Total Position: 100% net-long, 60% invested Currently Long (according to size): UWM (R2k Dbl-long, 10%); GTI (6.3%), VIT (6.1%), HMIN (5.5%); CYD (5.4%), CML (5.4%); CISG (4.2%), HEAT (4.6%), RINO (4.2%), WATG (4%), ULTA (2.3%) Currently Short: no current position Futures Accounts: No current position (see the Twittspitt for details)
New post re Steel-Specialty Alloys and GTI specifically posted just now to Evil Speculator HERE.
In other terms, I am quite unhappy to have shaken myself out of HRBN long; will look to re-enter assuming this holds above the 22.90 pivot-point for break-out. My not being perfect has become more obvious lately (though the week is going well-enough overall)
Total Position: 100% net-long, 47% invested Currently Long (according to size): UWM (R2k Dbl-long, 10%); GTI (6.5%), HMIN (5.5%); CYD (5.3%), CML (5.3%); CISG (4.2%), RINO (4%), WATG (3.8%), ULTA (2.3%) Currently Short: no current position Futures Accounts: No current position (see the Twittspitt for details)
Don't do what I do, but I've outlined my early-year logic - on Evil Speculator HERE.
Total Position: 100% net-long, 30% invested Currently Long (according to size): UWM (R2k Dbl-long, 10%); HMIN (5.5%); CML (5.3%); CISG (4.1%), HRBN (3.1%), ULTA (2.3%) Currently Short: no current position Futures Accounts: No current position (see the Twittspitt for details)
Mavericks photo by Frank Quirarte©; January 10, 2010
