Iceland 2011 (Þorlákshöfn, Arctic Tern, Jökulsárlón)

Iceland 2011 (Mývatn and the highlands)

Iceland 2011 (Jökulsárlón, Vatnajökull and Skjaldbreiður)

Going to the

Just a quick update (since I still pay rent on this blog).

I'll be off the grid the next couple of weeks, playing chutes and ladders with Iceland's finest.

I will look to post something exotic, beautiful and serene, which coincidentally will become my state of mind as the long days progress. I reserved a 4wd vehicle the size of Scotland and I'm in search of some hot spring, inside of a cave, wrapped within a glacier. You know the one.

If July then is choppy with no clear trend, I will be younger still; resting until money becomes too easy not to come back.

At least initially, I will hold a little Healthcare. The sector is leading and rather conservative. If I miss big drama by a few hours, it shouldn't ruin my year. I'll manage my benchmarks and stops along the way, generally once a day.

Currently Long: $JNJ (10%), $BMY (6%); will look to hold these, benching accordingly each day. Twitter updates will still be posted, @Centrifugal, though not likely to be in real-time.

Cheers.

Blitz Thoughts re ONXX (talking my book, sucker)

I'm nothing of a biologist, so dismiss anything I have to say here regarding cancer drugs in clinical development. I'm also in a hurry and this is sloppy, so just dismiss all of it.

Sucks to be me.

My expertise is trading stocks and to my eyes, the Biotech group (at moment) is your best beast and ONXX is something of a monster stock (i.e. beast!).

Don't do what I do, but here is why I do it...

ONXX is extended, and selling-off today on news of phase-II trial results re Nexavar. As I suggested, the stock has demonstrated sufficient relative-strength and momentum to elevate it to the top of my buy-long lists. Nexavar is already deemed effective for use in kidney and liver cancer. The drug prolongs life and does not cure the fatal nature of these diseases. More recently though, they are testing compounds of the drug for use in other cancers.

ONXX will report further data on June 6th, at ASCO.

Here is my strategy on buying the dip today in the name, though it can go certainly trade lower...

The market is still a little suspect (since early May), but healthcare and biotech acting very well. The top industry groups at moment, as measured by relative strength, are littered with Biotech and Healthcare. This is your true market leadership, as far as industry groups.

ONXX, is at a buy-point this morning (between 42-43). Speculative, but very powerful, and with an exciting, developing pipeline (maybe).

I've been trading this name long the last few weeks - sold yesterday and re-bot now today. Don't get jealous though - I also had emergency root canal this week.

Plunger boy!

For a trade, you buy today and sell just ahead of the Jun 6th presentation of data.

For a speculative investment, you would buy today and hold for the presentation; bail-out only if they ultimately disappoint w the presentation of data; or if stopped-out prior.

The 3rd option is to sell half or more before the presentation and hold some for the event. This is my likely play; subject to change any time.

Benchmarks for stop-loss are going to be a moving target. I will keep mine defined via Twitter posts. No guarantees and I might get it exactly wrong. Fade me instead sucker.

Keep it light - it's a mover

Follow @Centrifugal (still!) to fade trades in real time

ONXX: May 19, 2011 (intraday). click chart twice to expand

Developments on the Psychological Tape (take heed or be headed)

I don't have much time and I don't blog much anymore, but since my current-best Super Secret (SS) psychological indicator triggered late Friday, I figure I owe you at least the courtesy to mention it.

Bah!

How much does this matter? None I hope - I like a roaring market as much as anyone. But as these machines gain furiously on the heels of my human mind, I don't attempt to play every set-up. Instead I look for set-ups I know I can trade and get out of those I'm less sure of. There are times, mathematically speaking, where I do accounts a great justice simply by identifying when might be a good time to back-off and let the rest of the crowd make all that money. Ease-up on the accelerator and hover the foot above the brake pedal; determine then whether or not to begin braking.

How significant is this negative indicator I'm alluding to? Well, we don't yet know and in fact news broke very soon after which might explain why the emotional octaves of SS Scott W. triggered as they did during the last trading hour of an otherwise fabulous week. After Friday's close, news broke that Erin Burnett is being hired away (to CNN from CNBC). This story, developing behind the scenes at CNBC, may possibly be behind what excited our special agent enough to induce a signal; perhaps it would not have triggered otherwise.

No matter - if the sky might fall and you've been warned, it is best not to stand directly under the sky. I will trade off of a signal from Mr. W. until he stops being Mr. W. They come few and far between these days, but that is the nature of elegance (harmonious, brilliant, fleeting).

As for the exit of Erin B., I can only say thanks - as in thank god! She never once gave me something to trade off and the cumulative debris in my headpan is forever reeling from the extended overdose regarding the sound of her voice.

I cut long-only exposure from 85% to under 50% and I'm on guard to hedge-off remaining longs should Monday's action warrant it (Monday's and the first day of the month have been notably strong for some months now. Thus it will be easy to determine if the strength of the market is truly suspect. Anything less than a broad rally will have me responding in kind and hedging).

Inversely speaking, here is what SS Scott W. has foretold (yelled-out actually) for the near future:

1. The US Dollar is set to bounce
2. The US Stock Market is set to pullback
3. The Silver market is poised to decline
4. Institutional Money will be net-sellers of equities prior to the conclusion of QE2 (end of June)
5. What Everyone owns is not worth owning (at least not once SS Scott is announcing why they own it, excitedly and loudly).

Laugh, scoff, spit if you please, but push the Dollar short and Stocks long right now at your own peril. Again, it doesn't matter if fading this man turns out to be a good idea or not. I don't need to squeeze every dollar out of the markets - but by avoiding the big set-backs I maintain a mathematical edge against the rest of the players in the long run.

I scrambled and began selling stocks abruptly, but I resisted neutralizing altogether, as 1st Monday's of the month have been a major edge. Meanwhile, getting net-short at this stage, even if we see a weakening market Monday, would be a little premature for my point of view. This is not a bearish market call and I'm not so young or heroic as to short a runaway bull market; run that trade a thousand times and you lose, defiantly.

But when Special Super Secret Scott W. can tell the story of why the dollar is going lower and stocks and precious metals are going higher to a fifth grader...AND he's excited about it - that's the time to move to the middle of the ship.

You stand in the way of this guy. I choose surviving.

Follow @Centrifugal (still!) to fade trades in real time

Total Position: Currently 100% net-long, 46% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CRM (15.2%); APKT (13.8%); PPO (8%); DPS (5%); ACTG (4%)

Currently Short: no current position

Futures: no current position

Night Gallery (tread-well edition)