Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Shorting Cramer's EGO (El Dorado Gold)

Give it up (hard!) for Cramer's latest multiple promo...Go Go EGO!

I was able to get off some EGO short in the aftermkt, but orders were only partially filled at 9.49 and higher.

Gold miners are acting well lately, but this is Cramer's second promo of EGO and he invited the CEO of the company on the show tonight. That's enough to make this one suspect and worthy of taking the 4% of Cramer push-premium (from the original closing price) to see if this one resonates downward.

I will try to complete an initial 5% position early tomorrow. Usually I look then cover early, after hype has worn away and the artificial premium dissipates (risking of course, that he struck a chord and price does not cooperate after the mouth-hype is dry).

But after shorting his FSYS ceo-promo on Feb 2nd and covering the next morning for a quick profit, I tried and tried but was never able to borrow the shares again until (sadly) the stock was simply obliterated (that was within a few shows of his XEC Speculation-Friday shin-digger in fact...yup).

So I am rethinking how I play Cramer now. I've scalped this man's plays for over 3 years, but now I think the red-meat is better than a few 60-minute bars of potatoes; we'll have to see on this one.

Oh, while I am not going to publicly accuse Cramer of pump-and-dump and/or bailing out friends-in-need who are connected with companies whose underlying stocks are about to plummet (simply because I have no direct evidence of his intentions), the performance of stocks which he singles out for multiple-promotion is notably terrible. Others have done quantitative work on Cramer's picks (Barron's as well), but my argument is that it has been the multiple-promo names which behave most egregiously.

Final note, it was AUY that was Cramer's growth gold play from over a year ago, one he promo'd on multiple occasions (at prices of 15 up to 20). "Yamana is the only true growth gold company out there" quote from 07.

You've been warned.

No comments: