Monday, March 02, 2009

Sitting on Hands

While things are generally orderly, thus far today, internals are severely negative; NYSE breadth >7-1 neg. and Down-vol is currently 90%; total volume, however is not major (snowstorm affecting volume?).

Here is how I am playing it...

-Given the severity of the internals, we should see either A.) some amount of panic ensue, or B.) we should close somewhere near the lows of the day.
-I am not targeting price levels, but instead measuring the severity of the internals. If they stay this extreme, I will remain this short - until a panic wave develops (in which case I will lighten my short-line) or until the final 30 minutes (whichever comes first).
-the one caveat is the chance the Feds goose the market somewhere near the final 90 minutes. If today is still this severe heading into that window, I will be trying to hang-in short in spite of that potential.
-If the internals begin to improve, I will begin to reduce the total short line here.
-In general, unless we start getting panicky out there, or the day is done, if the internals remain this negative I'm holding aggressively short - sitting on hands with both butt cheeks.

I sold the IOC (at 22.00 in the pre-mkt) on the positive news (will consider rebuying if it can hold above the 200-day, ~21.60, after 2pm est). IF SYT remains below the 10-day m.a. after 2pm est, I will blow it out (it is doing strong volume today on the downside). I am still looking to get out of the new Cramer short, ALTH (from Friday's after-mkt - my price is still a couple %-points lower). This one reports tomorrow, FYI. I covered AXA and TMK today, as certain insurance groups are holding well today, in the face of a negative tape for financials; and I am looking to swap for weaker during the session assuming action remain. bleak.

Total Position: currently 14-to-1 net-short (75% invested)...

Currently Short (according to size): SKF-long (Fncl's Dbl-short), SRS-long (Real-Estate Dbl-short), VNO, AEM, ETN, ALTH, NYB, WFC
(Note: above long inverse-ETF's SKF and SRS represent being dbl-short respective indices)

Currenty long (according to size): SYT

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