Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Strike That (shorts are squirming still)
This was one of the craziest days for me in some time. I pushed long, then bailed and pushed short, then bailed and pushed long again late in the day. If I were younger I guess I'd be ready to go out and party.
As it is I'll settle for a soak and straight to bed to recoup.
In spite of the churn, I managed reasonable gains overall and I like my position here (even more, ha!). I kept up live on the spit-Twitts but you can see on a day like today that conviction for me only means I am willing to step hard on the accelerator. But if I then see congestion ahead, police cars entering the highway or I suddenly feel incredibly uneasy for no apparent reason, I begin to adjust regardless of what my conviction believes.
No wonder I didn't go into medical school.
805 on the SP500 remains the pivot for me to keep aggressive long and below 800 means I am running scared until I can shift heavily short. Below 790 and I start wrapping myself in cellophane and heading for the nearest ice-hole, unless I'm adequately short in which case I carve another cube of Elk jerky from one of these waning winter carcasses still hanging in the living room behind me and hunt down another wounded pup seal to short.
I re-entered the GS long at 109.60 today; perhaps I can sell that one now up at the 200-day after all (200-day currently ~117.50).
Also, the MYGN breakout looks for real. This one closed above the 88.40 pivot on > 3x's normal volume. I have a big profit here, so I will risk the entire barracuda by pushing like mad up on the day tomorrow or else bailing out instead if I get clubbed below 87.75 or so.
Finally, I did let go of the SNDA long today. Even though the stock is behaving quite well, it is now extended and has run up to the top of a base going back to late 2007. I would like to see this one build a bit of a handle (mammoth cup/handle chart then at that point); I will re-load on a good slice lower (expecting that low then to hold within a new handle), otherwise I will let this base a bit; or else let it rip to infinity and buy it back when it revisits support coming back to Earth.
Did that last paragraph make any sense?
Total Position: currently 5.34-to-1 net long, (78% invested)
Currently Long (according to size): RJI, MYGN, GS, ARST, PMCS, WNR, TSYS, MNRO, IOC
Currently Short (according to size): AXA, ELOS