Monday, March 23, 2009

Whale Tails and Market Tells

I'll quickly discuss the Treasury's flush-and-gush plan to attack the banking sector's bad assets (whereby the Government intends to spend up to another $T).

This follows the Fed's plan to spend more than a $T buying mortgages and selling themselves their own product of treasury bonds; the quantitative easing thrush-crush for shorts, announced last Wednesday.

Let's reduce this to the simplest form. If I was smarter than the market, then I would be adding shorts right now. The Government is taking very large steps (they're gambling) and basically the severity of these actions illustrate just how desperate they are (or how dire the situation is).

Fortunately, I don't like to think. I react. For all I know the Government will succeed and I'm an idiot.

Either way, when whales start splashing vehemently I don't like to be on the wrong side of the wake. Market internals remain extremely positive for today, to a large enough degree it suggests we'll see higher-highs in the final 90 minutes of the session and likely close at or near the highs.

If we do manage to reverse on this news, which I truly doubt based on the tape thus far, I would not want to be long.

Of all the major Financial names out there, GS is the only one I see above last week's high so far. That is the Financial play I am content to play long here.

If the complexion of the day changes to any signifcant degree, I will post again later. Otherwise you can follow my new trades on the Twittfeed; I expect to do some long-side day-trading in the final 90 minutes if internals remain extreme.

Total Position: currently 5.19-to-1 net long, (72% invested)

Currently Long (according to size): RJI, GS, ARST, PMCS, WNR, MYGN, SNDA, STAR, MNRO, UGP, IOC

Currently Short (according to size): AXA, ELOS

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