Friday, June 12, 2009

Pelted (shift towards neutral)


While I've been fiendishly attempting to neutralize exposure, reducing names and adding hedges, my brand of longs today are taking it worst on the tape; especially Chinese-growth ADR's.

Whereas earlier in the week leadership growth was rising, regardless of the rest of the market, today the Dow (for example) is relatively flat while leadership is giving it up considerably.

The market has teeth - even for me.

On the positive side, a slam-thrust down following strong, lengthy moves higher can be bullish action (in that the first hard slice lower very often marks the short-term lows for such stocks going forward). But that is hardly worth praising out-loud when you're being taken out back and flayed. I have somewhat neutralized my position, but frankly the beta of my longs is higher than the hedges, so dollar-for-dollar I'm still a little more long than it looks currently below.

Also encouraging, the reversal on ARST following last night's eps report looms positive. Forward guidance there was an issue, but the market has a different outlook there.

I'll incrementally cower out of this stance if things worsen from here. Otherwise if it does develop such that today's lows on the growth names look to be holding, I'm wearing them from here.

Lovely furs of growth in that case.

Total Position: 2-to-1 net-long (plays 1.18-to1 net-long considering levered TWM, FXP, SRS), 61% invested

Currently Long (according to size): TQNT (5.3%), ASIA (4.5%), RAX (4.5%), ARST (reduced today, 4.4%), LFT (increased today, 4.4%), MRVL (3.6%), PEET (3.6%), SNDA (3.1%), AU (3%), JDSU (2.1%)

Currently Short (according to size):
MA (6.6%), TWM-long (6.6%; Russell2k Dbl-short), FXP-long (4.8%, Xinhua China Dbl-short), SRS-long (2.5%; US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the Russell2k index)

Futures Accounts: out of Long Russell-2k Sept, 528.25 ave. (+3.2)

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