Bloat Note

Following body shots taken from the weak reception of IPO GAME, I'm presently net-short again; having coughed-up SNDA and CYOU longs into that unseemly event.

I could have reduced my hedge and/or replaced lost longs, but the potential pivot in the market has deteriorated and I'll keep things small here (overall short until something improves). Market internals, while not extreme, have returned to negative. NYSE breadth for example, has re-reversed today; currently 2-to-1 negative.

Noteworthy, bellwether GS is trading to lower lows now and the AAPL reversal higher has faded (although AAPL is still quite impressive relative to the RIMM weeper). GS may be having a bit of trouble from these failed IPO's this week (their name was on several of them), but whatever the reason - if the Financial's leader is driving/leading lower the buy-button should likely be avoided.

I bought TSL and SXCI today before things worsened. They're holding in so far and not such a worry since I have but one other long remaining. [Follow realtime on the Twittpitt if you dare]

Back to the GAME blame - I think it is clear the course of action for me was to take lumps quickly, unthinkingly, given the surprise weak-open in GAME. I'll be staying off this group for now, but definitely interested. If they are not longs, then I would have to call them shorts. Something may have died under the floorboards today...any lingering smell would indicate rotting.

Thus bears remain downtown after all, sipping coffee still. And it looks like I bought the most recent round.

-Total Position: Aprox. 1.75-to-1 net-short, considering levered SKF and under-levered UUP hedges.
-33% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 13%

Currently Long (according to size): SXCI (5.1%), TSL (4.2%), ULTA (3.4%)

Currently Short (according to size):
-UUP-long (12.1%); current inverse correlation with equity mkts defines this as an equity hedge
-SKF-long (US Financials Dbl-short; (8.4% position)
(Note: inverse-ETFs SKF and TWM represents being dbl-short their respective index).

Futures Accounts: no position

Shanda Spin-off (quicknote on GAME-ing the system)

SNDA spins-off IPO GAME, which should begin trading on Friday (it is due to price tomorrow; after the close I presume).

I wanted to reduce the SNDA position tomorrow, just ahead of that event, but it is running hard this morning and given I was more than double-normal on the long position, I bailed out on half today; 58.80.

I'm looking to hold the remainder (now 5.5% of accounts) into Friday and then blow-out the GAME holding once the new issue begins trading (should it open at a decent premium). I expect to hold SNDA from there, unless it trades poorly following the spin-off; I will blow it out same day in that case.

On a side note, NTES from the same group is breaking out today. If I were really bright I'd be long that name as well.

Quicknote

Busy morning and previous portfolio update already out of date; as I covered most short hedges for now. All trades (and occasional updated-allocation) are being conveyed via Twittfeed.. Futures accounts aside, allocation here is nearly fully long again (UUP Dollar-hedge the only exception at moment); may change again, depending, but internals early in the session are too strong to fight w shorts.

Pure-longs at moment = 69% of portfolios [Edit: 59%, not 69]

CFSG has broken out.
SNDA acting like a beast following downgrade to sell by big firm.
STEC breakdown is a bit of a wake-up call; as that name has been a tech leader.

Rock Paper Rock (paper group leading)

Fully long here again, for now at least.

I'll be up early tomorrow, watching life flash before drooping eyelids as anti-jobs data pummels my shares into oblivion. I've been warned now so many times it appears I'm staying back for the hurricane while the rest of the town is on the highway out of here.

Good luck to me. It should be a real barn-burner, right?

Okay, so I am avoiding Retail at least, even though there are several strong charts there. But if Hurricane 10% hits right in the gullet I'll at least not have to bail-out from under the teen-jean sector. Otherwise I'm discounting all better logic and giving premium to the market strength.

We're still holding after the strongest advance in years, at the same time that everyone knows better than to trust it. I'll take that and a 5th cup of coffee to get my performance up.

Paper - Paper is king. I saw this some time ago, even before leaving for summer. But at that point I didn't buy into it (logic is a killer). By the time it was clear I had been missing out on something special, I was in babysit-only mode and not taking on new positions (in-between sipping umbrella drinks). Now though, I've taken this nasty little pullback to load up on bleached paperboad, lightweight linerboard, and fancy cigarette papers (cleaner and greener cigarette papers, no doubt).

Paperboard-to-tears in fact, as CLW sells bleached tissues as well.

Here is the better of the bunch, as I rate them: SWM, CLW, RKT, KPPC, BKI, UFS, BZ, IP, VCP

These names have barely declined from their highs, and as such they may still spank downward. And due to that you may catch me unloading and then re-loading, in an attempt to first miss a new slice downward and then to quickly catch the better entry lower. But today's re-wash in the S&P gave the best opportunity yet (as of this writing I am still working adding a 3rd paper name, w/ partial fills only at a very good entry; trying now to work work the rest-in higher). If they do not decline further, then I am on (paper)board with the leading group.

I also put my head on the chopping block and re-entered SNDA today (first time in some time there). Earnings are coming out after the close today. I won't say much here, because it will look really stupid if that name gaps lower 15% tomorrow.

Clearly, I'm about to be ruined. It is September, after all.

Total Position: 100% net-long; 53% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CTSH (7.3%), SWM (7%), MRVL (7%), RJI (6.3%), CYOU (5.2%), CLW (5%), NEU (5%), SNDA (5%), CORE (5%)

Currently Short (according to size): no position

Futures Accounts: no position

CYOU (wouldn't want to be you)

While a pullback may be in the cards short term, or not, it is clear the market is still behaving well...for now.

That may seem a fairly useless statement, but I've little reason to pretend to know more than the most basic truths about this business. The older I get (I am ancient you know) the less I care what I think about any tomorrow. I prefer being 1-step behind, and simply responding.

Ignorance is under-rated.

I'm still out of the country, but looking to swing-trade any reasonable set-ups (long) this week; from a variety of leadership groups. Clearly it is the Chinese growth names which remain the predominate leaders; and within that spectrum it is the Internet Content names which are hottest; and within that group it is the video gaming providers who've cornered their market (see illustration above).

Still!

That means watching the action on CYOU today (reported this AM) and neighbors from the group (NTES, PWRD and SNDA), will be a highlight. CYOU is a volatile leader and before last week it really had never done anything in its young history to concern me. But we saw major-volume selling last week and I am out for now. At the same time I am keen to get involved again if it digests today's report well (and the market and the group remain live, etc.).

Elsewhere, I'm going to try and trade out of BIDU on the up-open here (if it can jack more than a few points), but I see no reason no to then get back aboard on the first reasonable set-up. The price-target was raised there today by Citigroup, which may make for a crafty short-term exit on a gap-up, following the huge day from BIDU on Friday.

Total Position: 100% net-long, 13% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BIDU (7.2%), NTAP (5.8%)

Currently Short (according to size): no current position

Futures Accounts: no current position

Preachy Keen

While I remain committed to blogging very little, the market refuses to let me rest.

I could log my 1000 complaints, except the moves out there are sick; multiple breakouts into and out of earnings reports, and few appear to be failing. I will keep it quiet and just keep trading.

Outside it is beautiful here. Big nature in a million small packages. The Tour starts again today and that will also provide distraction. If you are one of the majority who is rooting for Armstrong to fail and pining every angle for which to criticize, I suggest holding a higher opinion of yourself.

Greatness has a history of being criticized by the rest of us.


Total Position: 100% net-long, 54% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BIDU (9.9%), CYOU (9.1%), EWT (7.3%), MRVL (6.7%), SNDA (6.4%), NTAP (5.4%), TSRA (5%), FFIV (4.9%)

Currently Short (according to size): no current position

Futures Accounts: no current position

same boring location

Pom Payday

Arrived yesterday in Naples and heading to Pompeii now for the day (Vesuvio tomorrow). Overnight futures are down slightly but leadership has remained quite game at the same time that the overall market lumbers in a mild uptrend (my favorite type of action for simply holding onto to winning positions).

As long as this continues I can keep with the plan of holding into the July 4th holiday seasonal strength; with the idea of selling names on Thursday (2nd) [edited] and then early Monday (6th). Given the nature of the recent action (leadership growth behaving very strong under the otherwise quiet surface) there exists a reasonable chance we'll see a strong advance-day for the overall market somewhere in this time frame. If so, I may reduce on strength sooner, in the final 30 minutes of that session.

There are some hurdles, as always, and if we stumble to any significant degree I'll adjust the game-plan and lighten sooner. Potential game-changers include 1.) the potential that the end of the quarter Tuesday will mark short-term highs in leadership stocks; 2.) the monthly employment report due Thursday [edited]; and 3.) anything else which may develop AND strikes a chord in the market.

A final thing I have to be wary of is the possibility of failed breakouts turning into selling routs. Several of my positions now are either breaking-out or poised for a breakout. I live for such problems, but with life in the fast lane eyes must keep alert. If break-outs like RAX and PAR stall and turn below break-out pivot points, I'll let them go ahead of schedule. If SNDA breaks to a new high now, I will look to sell right into it (since the too-far-too-fast advance means the likelihood it will need further consolidation); while if CYOU breaks-out I will try to hang-in for the ride until Friday or Monday (as this one is less mature, it remains a beast so far, and almost any upside is possible.

In other words, neither CYOU nor SNDA has a reasonable base to break-out of just now, yet the younger CYOU has a better chance for getting even more disgusting. I've done well earlier in selling-out at the right moment and then hopping back on for more after pulling back, but on this particular juncture, given the calendar, the general trend and the fact that it has no business now being back to new highs again after such a brief consolidation, why should I get logical and conservative when this name acts like it still wants to surprise?

I expect few entries again this week, while I'm exploring past and future Volcanoes and ultimately then heading out into the Mediterranean. My Twitter works well enough for broadcasting changes in my position, but even those may come late now as I will miss chunks of time (though not opens and closes) and I'll be dealing largely with limit and stop orders intraday.

I'm off.

Total Position: 100% long, 53% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (6.1%), ASIA (5.5%), RAX (5.4%), SNDA (4.9%), WFT (4.7%), TQNT (4.2%), ARST (4.2%), NFLX (4%), LFT (3.8%), MRVL (3.5%), PEET (3.5%), PAR (3.3%)

Currently Short (according to size): no current position

Futures Accounts: no current position

Potential Pivot Point (and a brief game plan)

Still quite busy here, but here is a synopsis now of how I hope to play things for the short-term period. If the market does not cooperate I will have to adjust, obviously. But so far so good...

Today's reversal may create a nice short-term pivot-low.

If so, we may manage to trend higher up into the end of Q-2 and onto the July 4th holiday. That would then provide good seasonal-strength selling opportunities on the Friday-to-Monday; 3rd-to-6th of July.

If not, I'm going to have to lighten-up, using today's lows (in most cases) for benchmarks. In this case I would begin getting defensive and very small, until the market shows better.

I let go a lot of the increased hedge today and at moment am only holding 5.4% SRS for that purpose.

I was down more than the broad market yesterday, even with hedges, as the growth names took it much worse than indices. Volume though was not heavy, nothing really broke significant support, the entire world was expecting this pullback at the same time that the charts of leadership names still look like they should be bought. I couldn't really see anything too ugly yesterday, so I just upped the hedge instead of selling names.

Finally, unless the month of July is a clear trend higher, I'm looking to play it very light, decompress some and get rested for the second-half of the year. I don't want to work hard if the environment of summer is at all choppy; as I have found again and again that a choppy summer environment is both tricky and difficult to prosper Normally, as a result, it is the best time to rest and refresh. By later in August I find the environment to be typically more playable and then September to January is generally money-time, as far as my historical performance.

That last part suggests I'm getting ready for extra-curricular activities. Thus, even if my trading gets boring by the time we hit July 4th, the hunt-and-kill reports posted here will hopefully suffice your personal bloodthirsty appetite.

Total Position: >10-1 net-long (plays >5-1 net-long considering levered SRS), 58% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (increased today, 6.9%), ASIA (6.1%), RAX (4.7%), SWN (4.5%), WFT (4.3%), SNDA (4.3%), TQNT (4.3%), ARST (4.1%), LFT (3.8%), MRVL (3.5%), PEET (3.5%), PAR (3%), AU (2.9%), JDSU (2%)

Currently Short (according to size): SRS-long (5.4%; US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETF SRS represents being dbl-short the US Real Estate index)

Futures Accounts: no current position

Quicknote on my position

In retrospect I should of held onto the larger-sized hedges yesterday, as we're seeing further selling pressure today. That said I'm not completely naked and I have mentioned I will error on the bull side as long as the leadership charts continue to look positive.

Volume is running low and breadth is not so severe today. I'm having trouble reducing the number of longs, which is what I expect to do when weakness continues, because on a case by case basis I cannot see compelling reasons to sell. Tomorrow is Obama's speech regarding new financial reforms or whatnot, which could turn out to be a turning point; we'll see.

I did increase the SRS-hedge and I may go back to upping the TWM-hedge if necessary later in the session; instead of reducing names. And I am happy (oh boy!) to sell any longs breaking down, showing accelerating selling pressure, etc.

Brings a smile, doesn't it?

Dial 1050 for Chump

Total Position: 4.43-to-1 net-long (plays 2.22-to-1 net-long considering levered TWM and SRS), 68% invested

Currently Long (according to size): ASIA (6%), SWN (reloaded today, 4.5%, WFT (4.5%), RAX (4.5%), CYOU (increased today, 4.4%), SNDA (increased today, 4.3%), TQNT (reloaded today, 4.3%), ARST (4.1%), LFT (3.7%), MRVL (3.5%), PEET (3.5%), AU (2.9%), PAR (2.9%), JDSU (2%)

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (7.0%; Russell2k Dbl-short), SRS-long (5.5%; US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts: no current position

Quicknote on Hedge, Wheel-O's and Cramer Dividends

I'm going to be a little busy this week, as such I'll be posting less. I will however continue to Spit-twitt new trades live.

We have something of a pullback, so I'll take a minute and explain how I am hedging for it. First, Friday ended much better here than it began, capped-off in the after-mkt by two lovely set-ups courtesy of Dr. Cramer. I got short HBAN up in the nethersphere (as high as 13.5% above the closing price) and I also got to unload my largest long, TQNT, also in the exosphere (6.325, greater than 9% above the closing price).

So while ravaged, bloody and bitten early Friday (somewhat), I got back to the cave with dignity and well, grace. More Kisses for Cramer. That guy that keeps on giving.

I just let go the Chinese hedge (FXP) and from here I will look to hold my (4) Chinese growth names (CYOU reloaded again today). If tomorrow is down further and there is no sign yet of a bid in the market, I'd prefer to reduce exposure and the number of longs, instead of re-loading another FXP-hedge.

I'm still holding TWM and SRS. Given the severe negative breadth on the day (volume however, is relatively low). I increased TWM intraday, but I expect to back-off the additional shares near the close (sooner if the market catches and keeps a bid). So while I'm closer to flat at the moment, in terms of exposure, I'll go into the night leaning around 3-1 net-long, depending.

If the market still lives, then by tomorrow we'll see something resembling strength. If we are ugly still tomorrow, I'll reduce exposure by shrinking the number of long positions (holding winners first); let the remaining hedges go then according to the action, exposure-long, etc.

And certainly, I don't mean to suggest that the market cannot begin trending downward now (I just need to see it and respond before giving up the easier job of buying leadership in a good market instead). Who can blame me for that?

In fact, my go-to voodoo guy is spinning perpendicular right now and that has me a little nervous (not kidding). The illustrated chart above comes from TX Tornado's post The Wheel. Apparently, price, time and areas of Da Vinci influence are are all in harmony (my description). (SPX 950 was tested on 6/5 at a time/price which was 90 degrees from the 3/6 square and previous resistance).

I don't know what any of that means. Frankly though, I don't need to. When the universe lines up its ducks and starts playing Wheel-O with the markets, I keep my guard up.

Let's see what transpires.

Total Position: 3-to-1 net-long (plays 1.5-to-1 net-long considering levered TWM and SRS), 66% invested

Currently Long (according to size): ASIA (increased today, 6.3%), SWN (reloaded today, 4.7%, WFT (reloaded today, 4.6%), RAX (4.3%), ARST (4.3%), LFT (3.9%), MRVL (3.6%), PEET (3.5%), CYOU (reloaded today, 3.1%), SNDA (2.9%), AU (2.9%), JDSU (2.1%)

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (13.7%; Russell2k Dbl-short), SRS-long (2.7%; US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts: no current position

Pelted (shift towards neutral)

While I've been fiendishly attempting to neutralize exposure, reducing names and adding hedges, my brand of longs today are taking it worst on the tape; especially Chinese-growth ADR's.

Whereas earlier in the week leadership growth was rising, regardless of the rest of the market, today the Dow (for example) is relatively flat while leadership is giving it up considerably.

The market has teeth - even for me.

On the positive side, a slam-thrust down following strong, lengthy moves higher can be bullish action (in that the first hard slice lower very often marks the short-term lows for such stocks going forward). But that is hardly worth praising out-loud when you're being taken out back and flayed. I have somewhat neutralized my position, but frankly the beta of my longs is higher than the hedges, so dollar-for-dollar I'm still a little more long than it looks currently below.

Also encouraging, the reversal on ARST following last night's eps report looms positive. Forward guidance there was an issue, but the market has a different outlook there.

I'll incrementally cower out of this stance if things worsen from here. Otherwise if it does develop such that today's lows on the growth names look to be holding, I'm wearing them from here.

Lovely furs of growth in that case.

Total Position: 2-to-1 net-long (plays 1.18-to1 net-long considering levered TWM, FXP, SRS), 61% invested

Currently Long (according to size): TQNT (5.3%), ASIA (4.5%), RAX (4.5%), ARST (reduced today, 4.4%), LFT (increased today, 4.4%), MRVL (3.6%), PEET (3.6%), SNDA (3.1%), AU (3%), JDSU (2.1%)

Currently Short (according to size): MA (6.6%), TWM-long (6.6%; Russell2k Dbl-short), FXP-long (4.8%, Xinhua China Dbl-short), SRS-long (2.5%; US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the Russell2k index)

Futures Accounts: out of Long Russell-2k Sept, 528.25 ave. (+3.2)

Holding Long (now hella wrong)

I hesitate to say I'm down much less today than this position gained yesterday, since that sort of statement flies from lips of blindfolded fools standing before squads of itchy fingers.

All the same, I'm playing a bit of rope-a-dope here. Daring this market to shoot me.

The Fed's beige book was just released; following the lack-luster 10-yr auction results; following the negative reversal in equities this morning; following coffee stains mounting my rotting teeth.

Nothing more brilliant to say than that, sorry. I may end up hedging and/or reducing before the day is through. If we're not making lower-lows in the final 90 minutes of the day however, I expect to hold pretty much pat.

I re-bot CYOU today under 40. It's still extended, but it's still a monster; until it isn't.

Accounts are back to flat now on the day as the market catches a small bid. I'm really in for it now perhaps. Twitter the fool if you care to follow.

Total Position: 6-to-1 net-long, 56% invested

Currently Long (according to size): TQNT (5.3%), ARST (3.6%), RAX (4.2%), WFT (4.7%), ASIA (4.7%), SWN (4.6%), PEET (3.8%), CYOU (reloaded today 39.96, 3.3%), SNDA (3.4%), AU (3.2%), LFT (2.3%), JDSU (2.2%), FNSR (1.9%)

Currently Short (according to size): ONXX (4.1%), MYGN (3.9%)

Futures Accounts: no current position

Fuzzy Bear Trap? (quicknote on the new week)

Action is further negative so far today, following Friday's reversal lower, but there is nothing yet overly concerning in either market internals or the behavior in leadership stocks.

I wouldn't suggest we're good to reverse higher today and things could deteriorate further certainly, but I am not against adding-back to longs on the weakness. Volume is declining from Friday's pace (constructive) and neither market breadth, Up-to-Down volume ratios, numbers of new 52-wk lows, or really anything else I am seeing point to an imminent rout. Certainly, the ever-bear camp of SKF/FAZ/SRS, etc. is not getting a ton of relief just yet. Tomorrow is another day; further weakness would cause me to increase defense; one step at a time; we'll see.

Easy game ;)

As far as hedges, I shifted from SDS to TWM (as the Russell2k is weakest of the majors on the session).

Total Position: 2.18-to-1 net-long (plays 1.40-to-1 net-long considering levered TWM); 56% invested
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the Russell2k index)

Currently Long (according to size): TQNT (re-increased today, 4.8%), ASIA (4.5%), SWN (4.5%), RAX (4.2%), WFT (4.2%), PEET (3.8%), ARST (3.4%), SNDA (reloaded, 3.1%), AU (reloaded, 3.1%), CYOU (reloaded, 3%)

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (new, 9.9%; Russell2k Dbl-short), ONXX (4%), MYGN (3.9%)

Futures Accounts: covered 20% short Jun NDX, ave. 1476.50; from 1495.75 ave Friday

Killing it Neutral (shift toward mkt-neutral)

While I see no reason at moment to position bearishly. my guard went up today. I was quite busy early, shifting towards market-neutral.

The most troubling action came from the currency markets, in my opinion. On the employment report we saw a big drop in the dollar (rally in the Euro, Pound, etc. at the same time), but that was followed by bigger, and frankly nasty reversals. At this writing the dollar is up significantly and holding, treasuries were slammed, gold is hobbling and (at least) oil is flat now on the day.

This might seem insignificant (and perhaps it will turn out that way), however the currency markets have been leading equities for some months now, by roughly two-days. Two days ago the dollar saw a sharp rally and now today it is following through and we've developed something of an uptrend. If equities are going to remain linked to the currency leadership, then upside for stocks may now be limited; we'll see.

Most traders like to make a lot of of a little (especially those who write and post!) and I don't want to make a big deal out of this. I will react and respond however to changes in the market. If stocks cannot sell-off now, I would be happy to keep pushing leadership long. Yet if we start deteriorating, I'd like to let you in on my latest hunt-and-thrust images and fire like a maddened maniac short. Faster Pussycat Kill Kill - Race the fastest pussycats an they'll beat you...to death.

We'll see.

That's the long way to say that I'm closer to market neutral now and ready to react in either direction, depending. zzzzz

CYOU and SNDA (NTES as well in that group, but I didn't have that one on this rally) are animals still, but they are quite extended at moment and I let them go on the up-open. In the case of CYOU, that lovely powered only 50.2% from the low 10-trading days ago to the early high this morning. I left 2% of that gain behind, having sold too low at 40.08; snort!

I'm still shaking off the 4000 flushes here (having sneezed over 500 times in 3 days now) and I'm heading out for warm warm waters, looking to kill something. Be sure to tune in over the weekend to check-up on the spoils. I've invited Trish, but she's too sophisticated for my kind and currently not answering emails. Her weekends I imagine are spent tanning, shoplifting red sweaters and studying the markets (right!). She's certainly not getting out to Devil's Golf Course to exfoliate with me anytime soon to.

Nail my tongues to the floor why don't you.

Total Position: 1.73-to-1 net-long (plays 1.14-to-1 net-long considering levered SDS); 53% invested
(Note: inverse-ETF SDS represents being dbl-short the sp500 index)

Currently Long (according to size): ASIA (4.6%), SWN (4.6%), WFT (4.5%), RAX (4.3%), PEET (3.9%), ARST (new, 3.4%), TQNT (reduced today, 3.3%),

Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (new, 8.5%; SP500 Dbl-short), ONXX (new, 4.1%), MYGN (new, 3.9%)

Futures Accounts: 10% short Jun NDX, from 1497.00

Nicole and Dimed (out of currency shorts)

I'm in a semi-conscious state. Body aches flaring, nasal-drip flowing, delirious, sleep-deprived eyes waxing, wincing.

You know where this is going. In spite of physical drudgery, I'm free now from Euro-slaps and British Poundings. I'm camping happy.

Once again I slept (sort of) near my machine, watching over my currency shorts like a mother giraffe watches the runt. Talk about a brain drain - all that attention just to try to keep one ugly duckling from not afloating.

I'm fresh, I'm clean, I'm out of that hell and chomping at my psyche bit once more.

Now that I'm not so stuck I've released my jaws from this beast (I told you throughout it wasn't worth it, but I'm a foolish fighter sometimes; capable of attacking great whites...until it hurts). The primary goal of the futures accounts traded here is to push index futures on days where the action is either all-good or all-hell-breaking-loose. Frankly, I'm a better trader at that sort of thing and this currency smack is the latest reminder (I'm a better player than I am a gambler). If you see me Twitting trades in currencies, it had better be a daytrade, and going with the direction of that day's strong momentum. Otherwise I give you permission to rip the sickly, Linton-esque giraffe fuzzflesh from my bony backside and feed it to my stronger brethren. Let someone else make the overnight money!

Equities? Oh yeah, that's going well - what's so interesting about that? Yesterday was the beginning of the much-expected and logical pullback that we all considered so logical and likely. Too bad for you it was over before the day was through, eh?

If you get your opportunity now I suspect you'll wish you hadn't. Which is the same as saying that when this market lets you in easy the move higher is done.

I've studied this pain thing for some thousand years. I do my best to step over the dead bodies of my trading past and prosper now instead. I'll step over you, if you let me; and if I'm really jamming I can step over myself and still be home in time for supper. You are shutting off CNBC because it is inane and annoying. But I am listening to Trish Regan as I write, because she speaks so inversely eloquent I could kiss her all under. Kind of like the big lady that married the really really rich guy who was like one or two hundred years old. She had nothing but smiles for him I'm sure.

You know how the story ends. Okay not that story. No oily dog's going to take my breath away.

-Beast out

Total Position: 100% net-long; 48% invested

Currently Long (according to size): AU (5.5%), CYOU (5.1%), TQNT (new yesterday, 4.7%), ASIA (4.6%), SWN (4.6%), PZZA (4.4%), WFT (4.4%), RAX (4.3%), PEET (3.8%), SNDA (3.3%), NTAP (3.1%)

Currently Short (according to size): no current positions

Futures Accounts: no current position (re-shorted both Euro and BR Pound last night and covered on the ECB news/non-news which hit those markets early this morning)

Mush!

I may have spoke too soon yesterday. Like the end of Grizzly Man, where the guy decides to stay too-long into the pre-hibernation period and that new loner bear comes around whom he has no previous relationship with - that's the bear who eats his ass. No care to what a good guy he is/was. Chomps without reflection.

Well, maybe not that bad. You bears are sweating some. We're all sweating some. Wake me up when one of us is getting eaten.

We're back to murky, mushy action. Retail is taking body shots, following housing revisions and rising foreclosures (apparently, up to 8% of mortgages are on the stretching rack). Otherwise the market remains as half-full as it is half-empty. If you are picking good stocks to play (long or short) then you are doing alright. If you are expecting huge fireworks, then you are living in the wrong month.

I'm flat on the week, somehow!, but daddy still needs a new pair of snowshoes if you know what I mean. I'm focusing long (though lightly invested) until we can actually break this trend. If action waxes uglier now I will have to hedge at least; but so far I remain patient. If we resume higher and leadership is firm, I'll be happy to increase exposure.

I cut-back the Euro short last night and might be happier now if I had let it all go (it has recovered from last night's sell-off). I was bailed-out nicely this week, but if the dollar is truly weakening again I'm not going to take a second ride against the tide there.

Gold is at a 3-month high. I still favor LIHR, which broke out last week on reasonable volume. This has been a nice pair-trade to my dollar short. If you forced me I would admit the gold trade looks better than the dollar short (but what do I know anyway?).

As far as other longs, RIMM and that group of Telecom-Wireless equipment stocks remain quite firm, while the Internet-Content trio of CYOU, SNDA and NTES continue to suggest that institutional money has still got game(rs); and I continue to see ASIA (Asiainfo, from the Internet-Solutions group) as the most powerful, reasonable break-out leadership play. There are other bigger gainers out there, but I'm not swinging for 150% risers who've suddenly cured the need for cancer.

Tread well my friends.

Total Position: 100% net long, 38% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (9.4%), ASIA ( 6.5%), LIHR (6%), SNDA(5.8%), PZZA(4.3%), PEET (2.9%), MRVL(2.9%, reports this evening)

Currently Short (according to size): no current position [was just stopped on MDT]

Futures Accounts:
-Short 20% Jun Euro last night, 1.3683 ave. (covered 10% last night, 1.3793)
-Short 20% Jun BR Pound, 1.5602 ave.

Stuck

When the last trader on Earth sells this dollar, let me know. That's going to set-up a nice trade.

Wait. That guy is me. The dude with a hot-poker stuck to his insides.

Fine, I admit it. I waited a few days, but I admit it. Now I don't even want to make money on this trade - I just want out. That's the psychology of a bad or poorly-timed trade (poorly bench-marked in my case). Now I've got to step over my own dead body to make money here. Who wants to perform like that?

Nature of the beast I guess.

I love my job, don't get me wrong. But it can get ugly. Sticking-out multiple parts in varying directions means occasionally something's going to get whacked. This is why you have got to be disciplined. This is why you can't let a loss get momentum on you.

This is why you want to push on players stuck in such a rut. Push push push until they either break or until some miracle bails them out. They're basically a zit that has one general destiny (pressure will build and build until something pops). I want to be pushing on that zit, I don't want to be the zit.

My futures accounts lately have been the zit.

Okay, okay, it's not all bad. These same zits losing money in futures this week performed very well with equities (still!). We're all shocked at how quickly you can return-to-sender gains in futures - but we're big boys, no? We're still printing money and the other side is still giving it away.

I'm not the only incredibly successful dolt on this planet right now either. The battle between Kobe and Carmelo is epic (if you haven't seen) - an epic war between two guys who are well-matched and uber-determined to out-perform the other. One guy is older, more cold-blooded and experienced, but the other guy is coming-on, bigger and with a longer reach (and frankly, quicker on the ball/boards). Anyhow, Kobe was in the zone of zones late last night; sick, cold-blooded zone - the kind that means he'll eat your children before he blows the opportunity. He was going to make his shot from anywhere on the court and he had demonstrated this several times in the fourth quarter (with Carmelo literally in his face). So when it was down to the final few seconds and his team (Lakers I think) needs 3-points to send it into over-time - the greatest basketball coach of all freaking time designs a play to get the ball to some ancient-glory old guy who throws-up prayers these days from behind the arc. Kobe doesn't even touch the ball. The play was sent somewhere else. No way to cash in like that. Half-off greatness coupon with the expiration date expired. Jaw dropper.

When I saw that, I felt better about having misdirected this currency trade. I gave the ball to Fisher. Fisher didn't eat any little children. I'm sitting here with dollar-off egg on my face.

Fine. Today is that ever-lovely brand of pre-holiday seasonal strength. Only this time the market is a bit suspect coming in, so no whole-hog approach (if we re-cave later in the session it won't be a shocker). I did adjust for this and fortunately my longs today are walking over my shorts (hence, even though I'm still slightly net-short, equity portfolios are up nicely).

Towards the end of the day (or sooner if things should deteriorate) I expect to re-shift back to net-short. This is either a negative or else dull market now, until proven otherwise. I have my views, but I am still not sharing. I will however do my best to keep in stride with it as it develops. One half-step behind in most cases (which is unlike being the only guy left who's long the dollar).

Good long weekend. I'm going to get outside and kill something. I'll be back with my updated kill-list of shorts by Monday night. Don't do what I do - now you know why I'm always saying it/

Total Position: 1.07-to-1 net short (plays 1.19-to-1 net short considering leveraged SKF), 63% invested (NOTE: stepped out of SDS temporarily for seasonal strength. Will likely go into wkend closer to 2-1 net-short, depending).

Currently Long (according to size): ASIA ( 6.7%), CYOU (6.1%), LIHR (5.9%), SNDA (reduced, 5.7%), BKE (3.7%), PEET (2.9%)

Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (temporarily 0%; SP500 Dbl-short), STRA (5.1%), NTRS (new, 4.1%), NDAQ (4.1%), CAL (new, 3.7%), SKF-long (3.6%; Fncl's Dbl-short), MDT (3.5%), FULT (3%), CNO (2.8%), SKYW (2.8%)
(Note: inverse-ETFs SDS and SKF represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts: (still stuck and buried long these)
-Short 30% Jun Euro last night, 1.3683 ave.
-Short 20% Jun BR Pound, 1.5602 ave.

Options (relevant accounts): no position

Ruff and No-Tumble

Volume is running at a higher clip today and leadership is still rallying. So even though the market's overall gains are subtle, under the surface things remain firm.

For now.

I took body shots being net-short most of yesterday, but today is more than making up for it. I made adjustments, both yesterday and earlier today, but I'm still keeping things close to market neutral (although my longs are high-beta).

If oil prices and the Euro vs. Dollar stall-out here, I think the market will soon stall as well. Look for this. If these keep rallying, I'll keep looking for leadership names breaking out of nice set-up consolidations and key them long.

ASIA is the breakout of the day today (highly ranked stock within a highly-ranked and rising relative-strength group, breaking out of a nice looking 6.5-wk base, on a volume pace now about 3.5x's normal). It's less than perfect, but reasonable. Perfect is when RS runs to a new high ahead of the price (RS here is a little below the previous high, even though stock price is now at a NH; so, a negative divergence there); and volume would be nicer if it were running greater than 4x's normal (which it may still manage if it surges last hour). I like above 4x's ave. vol. for an indication of power in a breakout. I'm not complaining, but as such I didn't increase beyond my initial 5% attack as it broke above the 18.63 pivot earlier this session. I hold this much still and will how well it follows through.

SNDA is breaking out today as well. I didn't add from my existing position though, as the base is less than 5-weeks old and volume is not much better than 2x's average. Often it is best to trade out when there is a low-volume breakout (especially given that the previous base was extended in price), but this name has been so powerful in the past I will give it greater respect; risk losing some of the meaty gains there.

CYOU I added to earlier when it was still down on the day, since SNDA had begun exploding up and it made sense CYOU would follow. Better lucky than dumb sometimes. I'm a bit of both, which is why I out-perform most market geniuses.

Also, I'm trading MDT short following earnings released this morning; paying me a small dividend for the 400 some-odd hours I spent updating my working short list posted last night. Scroll down if you dare.

All these boring trades are being spit live via Twitter (for educational purposes only); if you come here only for the pictures then you are on the right page. Otherwise all of this is old news by now.

Blah blah blah - when is the market going to top, right? Watch the Euro. If it turns the equity market should soon follow.

But may as well grab what it is giving in the meantime. The rally may out-live all of us for all I know. That's not a recommendation however. Gotta be too late to make money now. There's only an hour left on the session.

Total Position: 1.42-to-1 net long (plays 1.06-to-1 net long considering leveraged short etf's), 56% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (9.2%), SNDA (6.6%), ASIA (new, 5.3%), WNR (5.3%), DRI (3.8%), PEET (2.8%)

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (reduced to 4.9%; Russell2k Dbl-short), STRA (5.3%), AIPC (4.1%), BKE (3.5%), SRS-long (2.7%; US Real Est. Dbl-short), CNO (2.2%)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts:
-Covered SPX Jun today, 904.50, from 911.75 last night
-Short 20% Jun Euro last night, 1.3577 (no stop at this moment)
-Short 10% Jun BR Pound today, 1.5499 (no stop at this moment)

Options (relevant accounts): 0.4%, Sept GM 2.00 puts, paid 1.57

Bellow Mellow (underwater basket weaving)

Still I refuse to post my thoughts concerning this pullback. But I remain sweet on Trish.

Her highest octave this morning was coincident with the highest prices on the day - imagine that:

"The market is off to the races today with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 44 points!"

44 points is a full half-percent. As I write this, we're down however...a full half-percent.

I know I'm stretching here, but I promised yesterday to show some value (Trish-value). It's a relatively quiet option-expiration session thus far. Trish was never likely to hit a home-run today. She did her standard best. I calculate CNBC and I are roughly even then on the day; some modest compensation received in exchange for having to listen to this barb.

Something's got to pay.

Regarding the current position here, while I did shift away from an aggressive short stance (late Wednesday/early Thursday), I've yet to really cover that side of my position (I had added leadership longs for balance and have not yet covered much in the way of shorts; the reason I am up to 76% invested).

These pivot longs are continuing to work thus far and fortunately for me are out-performing my shorts (in terms of percentage gained), so I have not yet been hit on this mkt-bounce higher (even though I've remained more short than long (and long-winded, sorry)).

If we deteriorate much further the second half today, I will look to lighten the weaker longs to prepare for Monday. Monday's following Op-ex tend towards dreadful when/if the Friday expiration goes poorly.

What's got to pay?

It's Friday my reader friend. I can't leave before the close, since I'm babysitting this tidy group below. But ring that bell in a few hours and I am out the door, ready to roil!

36 hours of spearing, searing, pelting and svelting.

Bone weekend!

Total Position: 1.42-to-1 net short (plays 1.85-to-1 net short considering leverage), 76% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (6.3%), SNDA (5.9%), WNR (5.1%), NFLX (4.1%), PMCS (3.7%), DRI (3.7%)

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (10.8%; Russell2k Dbl-short), AAPL (7.6%), USB (6.4%), STRA (5.1%), AIPC (4.5%), PZZA (4%), BKE (3.4%), SRS-long (3.3%; US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts: Covered SPX Jun Wednesday 880.75, from 912.75; Remain short 40% Jun Euro FX, from 1.3585