Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Potential Pivot Point (and a brief game plan)


Still quite busy here, but here is a synopsis now of how I hope to play things for the short-term period. If the market does not cooperate I will have to adjust, obviously. But so far so good...

Today's reversal may create a nice short-term pivot-low.

If so, we may manage to trend higher up into the end of Q-2 and onto the July 4th holiday. That would then provide good seasonal-strength selling opportunities on the Friday-to-Monday; 3rd-to-6th of July.

If not, I'm going to have to lighten-up, using today's lows (in most cases) for benchmarks. In this case I would begin getting defensive and very small, until the market shows better.

I let go a lot of the increased hedge today and at moment am only holding 5.4% SRS for that purpose.

I was down more than the broad market yesterday, even with hedges, as the growth names took it much worse than indices. Volume though was not heavy, nothing really broke significant support, the entire world was expecting this pullback at the same time that the charts of leadership names still look like they should be bought. I couldn't really see anything too ugly yesterday, so I just upped the hedge instead of selling names.

Finally, unless the month of July is a clear trend higher, I'm looking to play it very light, decompress some and get rested for the second-half of the year. I don't want to work hard if the environment of summer is at all choppy; as I have found again and again that a choppy summer environment is both tricky and difficult to prosper Normally, as a result, it is the best time to rest and refresh. By later in August I find the environment to be typically more playable and then September to January is generally money-time, as far as my historical performance.
That last part suggests I'm getting ready for extra-curricular activities. Thus, even if my trading gets boring by the time we hit July 4th, the hunt-and-kill reports posted here will hopefully suffice your personal bloodthirsty appetite.

Total Position: >10-1 net-long (plays >5-1 net-long considering levered SRS), 58% invested


Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (increased today, 6.9%), ASIA (6.1%), RAX (4.7%), SWN (4.5%), WFT (4.3%), SNDA (4.3%), TQNT (4.3%), ARST (4.1%), LFT (3.8%), MRVL (3.5%), PEET (3.5%), PAR (3%), AU (2.9%), JDSU (2%)

Currently Short (according to size):
SRS-long (5.4%; US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETF SRS represents being dbl-short the US Real Estate index)

Futures Accounts: no current position

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