Saturday, June 20, 2009
Vesuviusness (leaving the country for now)
Apologies for the lack of recent posts, but get used to it Señor Chase - I'm about to blow this coup.
Tomorrow I leave for the land of Ferrari's, Fellini's and Fems. This year's version of my annual Rest-and-Refresh, Rot-not and Reconnoiter; well-east of Wall Street's. I'll be in Rome on Monday and climbing into volcanoes by the weekend.
I will do my best to upload along the way - understand that lava may be dormant from time to time.
My accounts currently hold 10 longs (roughly 48% of portfolios).
Each hold a single hedge, TWM (13.6% of portfolio).
-I let go anything which became questionable (oils for now and a gold position).
-Aside from PEET, I'm left with Tech and Internet (which frankly is acting best).
-I have a tight stop (presently) placed for the TWM-hedge near 41.50 (this is indeed tight, but Friday began very strong, gave up more than half the gains and then finished reasonably well; I feel rather confident that should Monday start-off strong, the market will drive higher throughout the session. I'm not calling for a strong Monday (slightly doubting it at moment), but only that after Friday's pivot-up and then slowing-down some, we will not give it up a second time if the market opens more than a little upward; hence the tight stop on the bench.
-I have stops in mind for every long, but frankly most of these are going to count only in the last 90 minutes of trading. For ex., ASIA may see a slice downward, but I don't want an open stop anywhere close since it may indeed recover the same day. Most stops I have open at moment are far away in price - the real bench is tighter, but if I cannot witness it live I need to give them until the final 90 min or so trading; dependent on volume, price action, RS, etc.
-I let go the SRS as the real estate muck (IYR) began taking out highs late Friday. SRS is higher beta and if the IYR runs higher now Monday, SRS will normally see a 5-15% decline (I don't want this name if going down). If the market looks bad though, SRS with a simultaneous stop placed is an easy way for me to neutralize pressure; hence if the world is for sale in the premkt on Monday, I may put SRS back-on here before the open.
At the moment I still think leadership is acting well, while the market is acting so-so (although it is acting better than the current perception out there, imo).
On Friday, July 3rd and Monday 6th, I'm looking to go light (sooner if the environment returns tricky or difficult). This is as I mentioned before - unload into seasonal strength...then take some rest unless the market continues steadily and measurably upward. I arrive in France then on July 7th. If the market is refusing to let me rest, I'll be there for it. If it is typical, quiet July fare, I'll stick with the plan of resting-up for the second half.
Adventures will be posted - even if trading is light. Get outside!
Total Position: 3.17-to-1 net-long (plays ~2.25-1 net-long considering levered TWM), 57% invested
Currently Long (according to size): ASIA (6.1%), CYOU (5.1%), RAX (5%), SNDA (4.4%), ARST (4.3%), TQNT (4.1%), LFT (3.9%), MRVL (3.5%), PEET (3.5%), PAR (3.1%)
Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (13.6%; Russell2k Dbl-short),
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the Russell 2000)
Futures Accounts: no current position