Update on Portfolio (further in both directions)

I did add to new-leadership in the second half of the session, but I increased my SRS-hedge at the same time. I'm similarly hedged then, as far as weightings, but now hold a larger position underneath (trade-fills are on Twitter feed on right).

If we crush further tomorrow, I'm going to be exposed some, unless I can finagle a larger hedge at an opportune time (I'll be up early tomorrow, looking at sales tags around the world). But at the same time with one simple cover I can be fully long and sufficiently large; by unloading SRS. Being able to position immediately fully long would be advantageous in the very small chance the market doesn't continue straight down here and make so many professionals so brilliant for saying so.

Today was not watershed in terms of Advances vs. Declines, Up/Down ratios, and certainly not in the number of new 52-week lows. But volume was significant on the negative reversal.

Total Position: plays roughly 2-to-1 net-long (considering levered SRS); 55% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CTSH (7.4%), RJI (6.3%), CLW (5.2%), CYOU (5.1%), GNW (5.1%), CORE (5.1%), SWM (5%), MRVL (4.4%)

Currently Short (according to size): SRS-long (US Real Est. Dbl-short; (11.9% position)
(Note: inverse-ETF SRS represents being dbl-short the respective index)

Futures Accounts: no position

Quicknote (hedged some - eyeing otherwise)

The good news - 450 CNBC shouts and counting, that the market correction is under way. Logic dictates downside legs will be limited; we'll see.

The bad news - a rather ugly reversal on good news (again, but worse this time + strong, rising volume), a strengthening dollar (and lower commodity prices), exploding volatility and a perceptible downtrend now in the indices.

While I got whipped a bit today, I am excited that I can now start scaling into newer leadership (ex: SWM) on a slice downward. Not rushing in just yet; but perhaps a little more at the close, depending.

And I've taken on a decent amount now of SRS (Commercial Real Estate Ultrashort), to afford the undertaking.

In a nutshell, still rather lean overall at the moment, but happy to see everyone clearing out when the market has only corrected a few percent.

Total Position: plays roughly 2-to-1 net-long (considering levered SRS); 42% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CTSH (7.4%), RJI (6.3%), CYOU (5.1%), CORE (5.1%), SWM (5%), MRVL (4.4%)

Currently Short (according to size): SRS-long (US Real Est. Dbl-short; (8.2% position)
(Note: inverse-ETF SRS represents being dbl-short the respective index)

Futures Accounts: no position

Vesuviusness (leaving the country for now)

Apologies for the lack of recent posts, but get used to it Señor Chase - I'm about to blow this coup.

Tomorrow I leave for the land of Ferrari's, Fellini's and Fems. This year's version of my annual Rest-and-Refresh, Rot-not and Reconnoiter; well-east of Wall Street's. I'll be in Rome on Monday and climbing into volcanoes by the weekend.

I will do my best to upload along the way - understand that lava may be dormant from time to time.

My accounts currently hold 10 longs (roughly 48% of portfolios).
Each hold a single hedge, TWM (13.6% of portfolio).

-I let go anything which became questionable (oils for now and a gold position).
-Aside from PEET, I'm left with Tech and Internet (which frankly is acting best).
-I have a tight stop (presently) placed for the TWM-hedge near 41.50 (this is indeed tight, but Friday began very strong, gave up more than half the gains and then finished reasonably well; I feel rather confident that should Monday start-off strong, the market will drive higher throughout the session. I'm not calling for a strong Monday (slightly doubting it at moment), but only that after Friday's pivot-up and then slowing-down some, we will not give it up a second time if the market opens more than a little upward; hence the tight stop on the bench.
-I have stops in mind for every long, but frankly most of these are going to count only in the last 90 minutes of trading. For ex., ASIA may see a slice downward, but I don't want an open stop anywhere close since it may indeed recover the same day. Most stops I have open at moment are far away in price - the real bench is tighter, but if I cannot witness it live I need to give them until the final 90 min or so trading; dependent on volume, price action, RS, etc.
-I let go the SRS as the real estate muck (IYR) began taking out highs late Friday. SRS is higher beta and if the IYR runs higher now Monday, SRS will normally see a 5-15% decline (I don't want this name if going down). If the market looks bad though, SRS with a simultaneous stop placed is an easy way for me to neutralize pressure; hence if the world is for sale in the premkt on Monday, I may put SRS back-on here before the open.

At the moment I still think leadership is acting well, while the market is acting so-so (although it is acting better than the current perception out there, imo).

On Friday, July 3rd and Monday 6th, I'm looking to go light (sooner if the environment returns tricky or difficult). This is as I mentioned before - unload into seasonal strength...then take some rest unless the market continues steadily and measurably upward. I arrive in France then on July 7th. If the market is refusing to let me rest, I'll be there for it. If it is typical, quiet July fare, I'll stick with the plan of resting-up for the second half.

Adventures will be posted - even if trading is light. Get outside!

Total Position: 3.17-to-1 net-long (plays ~2.25-1 net-long considering levered TWM), 57% invested

Currently Long (according to size): ASIA (6.1%), CYOU (5.1%), RAX (5%), SNDA (4.4%), ARST (4.3%), TQNT (4.1%), LFT (3.9%), MRVL (3.5%), PEET (3.5%), PAR (3.1%)

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (13.6%; Russell2k Dbl-short),
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the Russell 2000)

Futures Accounts: no current position

Quicknote on my position

In retrospect I should of held onto the larger-sized hedges yesterday, as we're seeing further selling pressure today. That said I'm not completely naked and I have mentioned I will error on the bull side as long as the leadership charts continue to look positive.

Volume is running low and breadth is not so severe today. I'm having trouble reducing the number of longs, which is what I expect to do when weakness continues, because on a case by case basis I cannot see compelling reasons to sell. Tomorrow is Obama's speech regarding new financial reforms or whatnot, which could turn out to be a turning point; we'll see.

I did increase the SRS-hedge and I may go back to upping the TWM-hedge if necessary later in the session; instead of reducing names. And I am happy (oh boy!) to sell any longs breaking down, showing accelerating selling pressure, etc.

Brings a smile, doesn't it?

Dial 1050 for Chump

Total Position: 4.43-to-1 net-long (plays 2.22-to-1 net-long considering levered TWM and SRS), 68% invested

Currently Long (according to size): ASIA (6%), SWN (reloaded today, 4.5%, WFT (4.5%), RAX (4.5%), CYOU (increased today, 4.4%), SNDA (increased today, 4.3%), TQNT (reloaded today, 4.3%), ARST (4.1%), LFT (3.7%), MRVL (3.5%), PEET (3.5%), AU (2.9%), PAR (2.9%), JDSU (2%)

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (7.0%; Russell2k Dbl-short), SRS-long (5.5%; US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts: no current position

Quicknote on Hedge, Wheel-O's and Cramer Dividends

I'm going to be a little busy this week, as such I'll be posting less. I will however continue to Spit-twitt new trades live.

We have something of a pullback, so I'll take a minute and explain how I am hedging for it. First, Friday ended much better here than it began, capped-off in the after-mkt by two lovely set-ups courtesy of Dr. Cramer. I got short HBAN up in the nethersphere (as high as 13.5% above the closing price) and I also got to unload my largest long, TQNT, also in the exosphere (6.325, greater than 9% above the closing price).

So while ravaged, bloody and bitten early Friday (somewhat), I got back to the cave with dignity and well, grace. More Kisses for Cramer. That guy that keeps on giving.

I just let go the Chinese hedge (FXP) and from here I will look to hold my (4) Chinese growth names (CYOU reloaded again today). If tomorrow is down further and there is no sign yet of a bid in the market, I'd prefer to reduce exposure and the number of longs, instead of re-loading another FXP-hedge.

I'm still holding TWM and SRS. Given the severe negative breadth on the day (volume however, is relatively low). I increased TWM intraday, but I expect to back-off the additional shares near the close (sooner if the market catches and keeps a bid). So while I'm closer to flat at the moment, in terms of exposure, I'll go into the night leaning around 3-1 net-long, depending.

If the market still lives, then by tomorrow we'll see something resembling strength. If we are ugly still tomorrow, I'll reduce exposure by shrinking the number of long positions (holding winners first); let the remaining hedges go then according to the action, exposure-long, etc.

And certainly, I don't mean to suggest that the market cannot begin trending downward now (I just need to see it and respond before giving up the easier job of buying leadership in a good market instead). Who can blame me for that?

In fact, my go-to voodoo guy is spinning perpendicular right now and that has me a little nervous (not kidding). The illustrated chart above comes from TX Tornado's post The Wheel. Apparently, price, time and areas of Da Vinci influence are are all in harmony (my description). (SPX 950 was tested on 6/5 at a time/price which was 90 degrees from the 3/6 square and previous resistance).

I don't know what any of that means. Frankly though, I don't need to. When the universe lines up its ducks and starts playing Wheel-O with the markets, I keep my guard up.

Let's see what transpires.

Total Position: 3-to-1 net-long (plays 1.5-to-1 net-long considering levered TWM and SRS), 66% invested

Currently Long (according to size): ASIA (increased today, 6.3%), SWN (reloaded today, 4.7%, WFT (reloaded today, 4.6%), RAX (4.3%), ARST (4.3%), LFT (3.9%), MRVL (3.6%), PEET (3.5%), CYOU (reloaded today, 3.1%), SNDA (2.9%), AU (2.9%), JDSU (2.1%)

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (13.7%; Russell2k Dbl-short), SRS-long (2.7%; US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts: no current position

Fuzzy Bear Trap? (quicknote on the new week)

Action is further negative so far today, following Friday's reversal lower, but there is nothing yet overly concerning in either market internals or the behavior in leadership stocks.

I wouldn't suggest we're good to reverse higher today and things could deteriorate further certainly, but I am not against adding-back to longs on the weakness. Volume is declining from Friday's pace (constructive) and neither market breadth, Up-to-Down volume ratios, numbers of new 52-wk lows, or really anything else I am seeing point to an imminent rout. Certainly, the ever-bear camp of SKF/FAZ/SRS, etc. is not getting a ton of relief just yet. Tomorrow is another day; further weakness would cause me to increase defense; one step at a time; we'll see.

Easy game ;)

As far as hedges, I shifted from SDS to TWM (as the Russell2k is weakest of the majors on the session).

Total Position: 2.18-to-1 net-long (plays 1.40-to-1 net-long considering levered TWM); 56% invested
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the Russell2k index)

Currently Long (according to size): TQNT (re-increased today, 4.8%), ASIA (4.5%), SWN (4.5%), RAX (4.2%), WFT (4.2%), PEET (3.8%), ARST (3.4%), SNDA (reloaded, 3.1%), AU (reloaded, 3.1%), CYOU (reloaded, 3%)

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (new, 9.9%; Russell2k Dbl-short), ONXX (4%), MYGN (3.9%)

Futures Accounts: covered 20% short Jun NDX, ave. 1476.50; from 1495.75 ave Friday

Bellow Mellow (underwater basket weaving)

Still I refuse to post my thoughts concerning this pullback. But I remain sweet on Trish.

Her highest octave this morning was coincident with the highest prices on the day - imagine that:

"The market is off to the races today with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 44 points!"

44 points is a full half-percent. As I write this, we're down however...a full half-percent.

I know I'm stretching here, but I promised yesterday to show some value (Trish-value). It's a relatively quiet option-expiration session thus far. Trish was never likely to hit a home-run today. She did her standard best. I calculate CNBC and I are roughly even then on the day; some modest compensation received in exchange for having to listen to this barb.

Something's got to pay.

Regarding the current position here, while I did shift away from an aggressive short stance (late Wednesday/early Thursday), I've yet to really cover that side of my position (I had added leadership longs for balance and have not yet covered much in the way of shorts; the reason I am up to 76% invested).

These pivot longs are continuing to work thus far and fortunately for me are out-performing my shorts (in terms of percentage gained), so I have not yet been hit on this mkt-bounce higher (even though I've remained more short than long (and long-winded, sorry)).

If we deteriorate much further the second half today, I will look to lighten the weaker longs to prepare for Monday. Monday's following Op-ex tend towards dreadful when/if the Friday expiration goes poorly.

What's got to pay?

It's Friday my reader friend. I can't leave before the close, since I'm babysitting this tidy group below. But ring that bell in a few hours and I am out the door, ready to roil!

36 hours of spearing, searing, pelting and svelting.

Bone weekend!

Total Position: 1.42-to-1 net short (plays 1.85-to-1 net short considering leverage), 76% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (6.3%), SNDA (5.9%), WNR (5.1%), NFLX (4.1%), PMCS (3.7%), DRI (3.7%)

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (10.8%; Russell2k Dbl-short), AAPL (7.6%), USB (6.4%), STRA (5.1%), AIPC (4.5%), PZZA (4%), BKE (3.4%), SRS-long (3.3%; US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts: Covered SPX Jun Wednesday 880.75, from 912.75; Remain short 40% Jun Euro FX, from 1.3585

CNBCeethe (value of the anti-genius)

I most certainly still, do not wish to post my thoughts on this pullback.

Days like today are a little funny for me. Not funny ha-ha, but funny strange.

On the one hand, I am forced to neutralize my position some (I cannot keep aggressively short as the market begins to firm). On the other hand though, I want to fire wicked-short, almost out of spite. Thus my actions contradict my desires. The stuff piss and vinegar is made of.

Someone has to pay.

First, in terms of positioning, outlook and the general reason some of you follow this blurb - I have shifted more towards neutral and will continue shifting as long as the market continues firming. The tactic so far has been to add leadership longs, at what may turn out to be decent pivot-entries (so far so good, though not entirely perfect). Late yesterday I did unload short SP500 futures and I did hot-dog out and back into SRS today, saving almost 4% of the decline in that play. But otherwise I have so far held onto shorts (mainly because they are so far working and if we stall-out again soon, they'll continue to work further).

As a consequence of all this, my total size is now greater than 70% (am I boring you yet?), but I am leaning less than 2-1 net short (down from nearly 5-1 net short at one point yesterday, including leveraged 2x's etf's).

New longs include: SNDA, PMCS, NFLX, PEET and addt'l CYOU.
New shorts include BKE and AIPC
Follow my Twittspit for details and further actions.

Back to the spite...

Since I cannot say much more about the market, I may as well preach. Value, my friends, is everywhere. You don't know this, because you don't know how to look for it. For example, I listen incessantly to CNBC. This has been true for years. And Years. This has contributed to a constitution of ever-increasing bile, surging slowly and steadily over too many decades. This is delicate. Unless steam is carefully and dutifully released I am in grave danger of blowing massive harry's. A projectile of bezoared chunks and punching of liquid crystal displays; whereby TV-heads with toxic eloquence finally, ultimately, send me beyond the gilded edge.

Think I'm kidding?

Seriously, imagine the stress of trading markets for a living. Then imagine listening to these numb-yuks while going about your day - every day! You might ask why do it? I know my family is curious. It's a decent question, surely.

I do it for value. There is so much value (in all the wrong places), that I'd be a fool (translation: a sane man) to dismiss it. I'm not going to trade like this and give up that edge. The edge of the anti-genius.

I've spoken of Cramer, so let's leave him out of this one. That value is simple to understand (Cramer gooses stocks higher, giving a temporary, artificial boost and thus an edge by going the other way). But there is better value. And if you have read this far then I suppose I'll let you in on it. However (I caught you moving to the edge of your seat, ha!), since I don't have all day to ramble for bleeding ever, all for your benefit (not true, since I admitted already I need to valve-off some of this bile) I am merely going to paste my IM's with my East Coast contingent from earlier today. This gets across the value I'm teasing you so far about (although in the end it is still a tease, since there is there is no specific gem for today. I will follow-up though, hopefully tomorrow, or at least as soon as it shines next. Did that make sense? I'm telling you about the gems that come forth, but there is no new gem currently beheld - stay tuned)

[exoquarx is me and Eastcrow's name has been modified; to protect the innocent]...

(exoquarx): turn up cnbc. you hear that voice?
(Eastcrow): got it. sell your house short? who is that guy larry?
[Larry Kudlow]
(exoquarx): dont ask
(exoquarx): reagan administration
(exoquarx): gin soaked
(exoquarx): that's not the voice i mean
(exoquarx): this other guy here is the gov'ts patsy (steve leisman)
(exoquarx): the 2nd head from L is actually smart. ignore her.
(exoquarx): Leisman is like a harvard football jock
(exoquarx): but couldnt get into harvard
(exoquarx): they call him their chief economist - which means chief hack.
(Eastcrow): that laugh from larry is something else - new high euro
(exoquarx): ok, bought another restaurant after all. that group leading the day tho
(exoquarx): there she is again - hear that voice?
(Eastcrow): y. i like cpki
(exoquarx): yuk
(Eastcrow): pinapple pizza? Invented in calif
(exoquarx): PZZA going 2b a short soon as well
(exoquarx): you hear the woman asking questions now?
[Trish Reagan]
(Eastcrow): y
(exoquarx): cnbc always has one of these (almost always)
(exoquarx): a tv personality who is now reporting on the mkts
(Eastcrow): oh actualy cpki not looking so good now...
(exoquarx): garbage stock
(Eastcrow): garbage pizza
(exoquarx): ANYtime you hear this woman actually reveal an opinion about the mkt ...
(exoquarx): go the other way
(exoquarx): it's magic
(exoquarx): guy talking now, you mentioned, has studied mkts his whole life
[Larry Kudlow]
(exoquarx): and drunk a lot of gin
(exoquarx): dismiss him
(Eastcrow): really? she like a cramer short?
(exoquarx): no. more magical than cramer short
(exoquarx): cramer moves the stock and that gives you the edge
(exoquarx): this idiot has no clue and when she 'gets-it' and spouts an opinion (or starts shrieking about how amazing something is) get ready for the other direction
(exoquarx): this is religion, spiritual, magic
(exoquarx): unbelievable and totally accurate, in reverse
(exoquarx): when the tv-types who know NOTHING reveal an opinion about the mkt
(exoquarx): you can look for setups the other direction
(exoquarx): this plays on the idea that once everyone has figured it out the move is over
(exoquarx): similar to when the mkt makes cover of Time/Newsweek; move is over
(exoquarx): or at least ready to counter
(Eastcrow): u see the uber bear? Dow to 1000 guy?
(exoquarx): wasnt listening to him, ...the guy just now? missed it
(exoquarx): but my ear is tuned to her, believe me
(Eastcrow): he predicted that the dow was going to 1000
(exoquarx): wow, that's my prediction. back to early 80's; 25 yrs of support there
(exoquarx): what is the driver, he say?
(exoquarx): nuclear?
(exoquarx): he needs nuclear
(exoquarx): big ugly war
(exoquarx): no more people
(exoquarx): doubt he said that tho
(exoquarx): the guys who know something are less useful really
(exoquarx): not that this guy knows anything. i dont know him
(exoquarx): if they are really smart , then i listen
(exoquarx): there's a few
(exoquarx): thank god
(exoquarx): otherwise i'm more interested in the anti-genius
(exoquarx): especially when they get inspired
(exoquarx): this one is beyond annoying
[Trish Reagan again]
(exoquarx): and knows nothing
(exoquarx): more nothing than you think is possible
(exoquarx): anti genius
(exoquarx): those are the people to follow
(exoquarx): this is why i am so angry
(exoquarx): i listen to these people all day for year after year
(exoquarx): makes you want to bite a german shepard
(exoquarx): just to get the stress out
(exoquarx): she's a peach
(exoquarx): there was a women 10 and 15 yrs ago
(exoquarx): wow
(exoquarx): the best ever [Cannot remember her name]
(exoquarx): i could tell by her octave how to trade the mkt
(exoquarx): kind of like when SRS was at the high today
(exoquarx): her octave might go up
(exoquarx): she would drone, drone drone all day
(exoquarx): every day
(exoquarx): but when she began to shriek...
(exoquarx): it was a perfect trade the other way
(exoquarx): i found god
(exoquarx): that's kudlow again.
(exoquarx): gin gin gin
(exoquarx): gulp gulp gulp
(exoquarx): dismiss him
(exoquarx): no value
(Eastcrow): funny women on this show. are you talking about the one with the white blouse (br hair) not the blond in yellow?
(exoquarx): the one with the triangle for a nose
(exoquarx): not the blond
(exoquarx): i ignore her
(exoquarx): not smart enough /not dumb enough
(exoquarx): i mean the one who makes you think low of humanity when she starts squeaking
(exoquarx): i dont know what she's wearing
(exoquarx): i only have sound on
(exoquarx): can't take the pictures
(Eastcrow): lets see if she comes back. now is "power lunch" what ever that is
(Eastcrow): glup glup glup
(exoquarx): power lunch is good-morning america
(exoquarx): waste of time
(exoquarx): only reason to listen is in case news breaks
(exoquarx): otherwise a complete waste
(exoquarx): turn on channel 4 instead
(exoquarx): same shit
(exoquarx): coffee mugs should be in hand
(exoquarx): i want to punch them all
(exoquarx): cant even trade off them
(exoquarx): no value
(exoquarx): SNDA coming on now
...
(exoquarx): there she is
(exoquarx): big value
(exoquarx): triangle nose
(exoquarx): DGI is priced. not really trading tho
(exoquarx): priced 19. we couldnt get any shares - sucks
(Eastcrow): oh there is the one with the nose. to the right?
(exoquarx): dunno
(exoquarx): but i heard her just then
(exoquarx): coffee mug time
(exoquarx): zzzzzzzzz
(Eastcrow): well now I know why you are so screwed up - watching that show for so long.
(exoquarx): here...
(exoquarx): http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Video/080712/nn_regan_xtalk_080712.300w.jpg
(exoquarx): miss piggy
(exoquarx): trish regan
(exoquarx): nice name - trish
(exoquarx): pretty much useless today. no inspired gems
(exoquarx): see if she figures anything out tomorrow
[god willing]

Snort!

Rearranging Deck Chairs (short here for now)

Whatever I think about the market just now doesn't mean a great deal and it is subject to change rapidly anyhow. So let's just discuss more how I am positioning and less what the bigger picture paints.

I shifted short in the pre-market again and this time it looks like I will stick with that; for now. Later in the week however is the Good Friday holiday and as such we might see some seasonal strength come in on Thursday. It is possible I will ease back long by Thursday, depending.

I'm having a good session, especially considering that I was considerably net-long when I woke up (I changed that stance abruptly, as yesterday's less than stellar attempt at a reversal was going to be gapped right out of the picture today).

Good luck seeing the same kind of recovery today.

I sold several longs early in the regular session, but I did make one bothersome mistake. I managed a terrific entry long yesterday in the aftermkt on the new ipo CYOU. I mentioned then (via Twittspit) that >22 was really a better buy, but then today I went and sold it at 22.20 early in the session (grabbing the quick profit as I was nervous about my overly-long exposure and was selling things quickly, perhaps abruptly). Since then it has managed to take out the day-1 high and with strong, rising volume. This name hails from a leading group (same group as SNDA and NTES) and one of my favorite trades is to get long an ipo when it takes out the day-1 high (getting above that level demonstrates that buying demand is greater than the profit-taking supply; from those who got in on the ipo price and then are flipping to lock in quick, handsome profits; momentum and demand are greater than anything that can stop it).

If the market is going to manage a standard pause before re-climbing higher again (too soon to say and a bit ambitious perhaps) then CYOU is the type of new leadership I will jam hard with for the remainder of its first several weeks (or until it stops leading).

I bot back the same size of CYOU at 22.92 and am wearing that one still; we'll see what happens.

Total Position: 1.1-to-1 net long, 77% invested
(Note: though the position is slightly net-long, technically it is leaning notably short due to leverage of the 2x's short-hedges TWM and SRS; TWM-weight is >15% at the moment)

Currently Long (according to size): TSYS, ARST, MNRO, NFLX, CHKP, RJI, MYGN, CYOU, DRI

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell-2k Dbl-short), GE, AAPL, VNO, SRS-long (US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Save Our Bears

How much longer can we punish these under-water bruisers?

While we haven't yet seen any important break yet in the major indices, action is toppy today and the internals negative enough to suggest things won't likely improve before this session is concluded.

Bears are breathing again.

If we surprise and manage to reverse today, it would be important and I would go back to keying long leadership. Without that, it is a question of how dark things shade today and ultimately then what amount of downside follow-through we'll see tomorrow.

I was able to slide myself short here without much damage and at the moment I'm positioned well for the present action. If things deteriorate more dramatically I will begin letting go the long-end of my position, otherwise I am looking for where to add to the right names and when to let go of hedges. Below 810 on the SP500 I would be less ambitious to be buying or adding to longs; below 775 on the SP500, I expect I would be aggressively short.

I sold the IOC today on the positive discovery-news; I added to a winning ARST position on the low-volume slice lower; I have been working RJI and almost finished reducing to ~4%. Keep up on the feedTwitt if you please - just don't do anything I do (at least not because I am doing it).

I'm working on an updated working list for individual shorts, which should be posted by tonight at latest.

Total Position: 1.75-to-1 net long, 83% invested
(Note: though the position is technically net-long, it is leaning notably short, due to leverage of the 2x's short-hedges)

Currently Long (according to size): PMCS, ARST, WNR, NFLX, CHKP, LFT, RJI, MYGN, MNRO, TSYS, DIOD, DRI

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell-2k Dbl-short), SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short), GE, SRS-long (US Real Est. Dbl-short), ELOS, EGO
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM, SDS and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Warm Plunge?

Signals are mixed today.

The market internals are dreadful, with 88% of NYSE stocks and 81% of Nasdaq stocks so far declining on the session. The major indices are trading more than 3% lower, led by the NYSE; down closer to 4%.

At the same time though, leadership growth stocks are notably resisting pressure; in fact many of the leadership names have reversed higher today, in spite of the ugly tape.

I increased hedges early, scaling into a large percentage of TWM; which positioned my accounts net-short for the day (accounting for TWM and SRS leverage). At the same time I began covering individual shorts on the weakness, letting go of RSH and ELOS and reducing EGO; and soon began adding new leadership long (NFLX, TNDM and DRI so far).

In other words, I am presently hedged, but when the hedges come off I am suddenly going to be aggressively, almost fully long. This might run counter to the idea that I would sell sell and sell on a break-down in the indices, but frankly I am seeing too much continued strength in the leadership and the sell-off today has only further illuminated this reality.

If they cannot sell on a day like today, they are going to jam higher once pressure subsides. I don't have any comment on when pressure will subside, but with breadth this severely negative I would argue the odds of a reversal for the overall market today is significantly low. And don't do anything I am doing, but I am confident that leadership is going to higher-highs in the not-distant future.

So much for my Friday rant...I guess buying a further pullback may not be jumping in front of an eager bear after all. We'll see.

Currently Long (according to size): MYGN, ARST, NFLX, RJI, TSYS, PMCS, MNRO, WNR, SNDA, IOC, LFT, TNDM, DRI

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell-2k Dbl-short), SRS-long (US Real Est. Dbl-short), AXA, EGO
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Ice Floed

I slept in today, not getting up until 5:30 Tijuana time; my head was throbbing although I didn't drink a drop last night; my small, net-long position was not going to get any miracles given that Europe was for sale again; my body cleaner since I soaked my head long enough to (hopefully) wash away yesterday's anti-groove; my dog Tripod still happy, even though he has only 3 legs.

It's too bad I'm handcuffed from attacking fresh today, the tape is just ruthless.

Anyway, I've refined rules over the years and I know how to get to the end-game - make sure you cannot self-destruct. The way you do that is to get progressively larger when things are going sublime and get smaller when you suck divine.

I don't kick the dog and I don't kick myself. But I sure as hell don't need to blow-up accounts.

Right now I'm sharpening incisors (I've got 16 of those now) and watching the market as if this was for hobby. I see some amazing things, none of them exactly lovely. I'll pipe in by tonight with some of what I see.

Make some money baby! With or without me.

Total Position: currently 1.08-to-1 net long, (14% invested)
Currenty long (according to size): SNDA (4.3%), IOC (3%)

Currently Short (according to size): AEM (6.6%; going against me today, but I'm not going anywhere on this one just yet)

16 incisors + sharpeners above