Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Understand, when I say I've been on vacation it means more than I was out of town. It means I'm not listening to CNBC.
Today was different. No vacation at all. CNBC piping through the screen here all day. No visual, no insightly text - just pure harmony of heads hamming. I've written enough about this, so I'll just sum it up - I have a hate-love relationship with heads on CNBC.
I got a lot out of CNBC today though. Today there was a clear pattern of agreement. A flowing consensus from heads who know something about the market, heads who no little but shine their darnedest presenting the market and other heads...professionals who know as much as any coinflip can boast.
Now, unfortunately I cannot say much more. Partly because I am a holdout, using this forum only to organize my thinking, but primarily because implying that I know any better - the lonely thinker that I am - that would be dangerous. I don't know shit, see. And I have trained myself very very hard to get this far. I'm certainly not going to waste a lifetime of work now just for you!
So I know nothing. Pure, lovely nothing. If you see me get off track, nudge be back in place. But be sure I was really saying something. I can't afford to be holding opinions. It makes me more reluctant to adjust when the opinion is losing money.
But I do study. And it is true that sometimes things ring a certain way. So when so many can see a little zag approaching (ignoring, I'm inclined to mention, the larger zig which preceded it, and usually then follows...) - when so many know that the rally in equities is "not sustainable," to quote a common phrase, even though it is the best performing market in years...well, why not get excited?
Enjoy your pullback. I have my own measuring sticks and I see what you see. But until proven otherwise, there are bigger zigs than zags right now and they come coincident with the (under-invested) professionals clamoring more over the zags. You can have tomorrow, even if it lasts the next two weeks - and I might protect, perhaps, depending, etc. I'm not immune to pain. I do have a nervous system.
But mostly I'll take the body shots and bears will bite me to death (again!). Mostly I don't want to give up my position for a zaggish pullback that everyone is warning me against. It is a bull market, after all.
Yes, it's been true for several months now, but for the first time in some years we've been in a very good environment for buy-and-hold (intermediate term trading). If the looming calendar waxing September can indeed knock prices lower, I'll be trying to make the most of it. Not by capitalizing on shorting, but by protecting (hedging) where necessary and ultimately using the pullback to position more fully invested for the final quarter.
I've got lists (eligible aggressive-growth longs) and I'll likely refresh these and get something posted tomorrow or Thursday. Don't lose sleep over it.
Zag that beast! I'm going to bed.
Total Position: 100% net-long, 64% invested
Currently Long (according to size): MRVL (8.2%), CTSH (7.5%), BIDU (6.9%), NTAP (5.5%), CPSL 5.5%, CNQR 5.3%, CORE (5.3%), STEC (5.1%), CYOU (5.1%), LFT (4.8%), RAX (4.7%)
Currently Short (according to size): no position
Futures Accounts: no position