Thursday, May 14, 2009

CNBCeethe (value of the anti-genius)

I most certainly still, do not wish to post my thoughts on this pullback.

Days like today are a little funny for me. Not funny ha-ha, but funny strange.

On the one hand, I am forced to neutralize my position some (I cannot keep aggressively short as the market begins to firm). On the other hand though, I want to fire wicked-short, almost out of spite. Thus my actions contradict my desires. The stuff piss and vinegar is made of.

Someone has to pay.

First, in terms of positioning, outlook and the general reason some of you follow this blurb - I have shifted more towards neutral and will continue shifting as long as the market continues firming. The tactic so far has been to add leadership longs, at what may turn out to be decent pivot-entries (so far so good, though not entirely perfect). Late yesterday I did unload short SP500 futures and I did hot-dog out and back into SRS today, saving almost 4% of the decline in that play. But otherwise I have so far held onto shorts (mainly because they are so far working and if we stall-out again soon, they'll continue to work further).

As a consequence of all this, my total size is now greater than 70% (am I boring you yet?), but I am leaning less than 2-1 net short (down from nearly 5-1 net short at one point yesterday, including leveraged 2x's etf's).

New longs include: SNDA, PMCS, NFLX, PEET and addt'l CYOU.
New shorts include BKE and AIPC
Follow my Twittspit for details and further actions.

Back to the spite...

Since I cannot say much more about the market, I may as well preach. Value, my friends, is everywhere. You don't know this, because you don't know how to look for it. For example, I listen incessantly to CNBC. This has been true for years. And Years. This has contributed to a constitution of ever-increasing bile, surging slowly and steadily over too many decades. This is delicate. Unless steam is carefully and dutifully released I am in grave danger of blowing massive harry's. A projectile of bezoared chunks and punching of liquid crystal displays; whereby TV-heads with toxic eloquence finally, ultimately, send me beyond the gilded edge.

Think I'm kidding?

Seriously, imagine the stress of trading markets for a living. Then imagine listening to these numb-yuks while going about your day - every day! You might ask why do it? I know my family is curious. It's a decent question, surely.

I do it for value. There is so much value (in all the wrong places), that I'd be a fool (translation: a sane man) to dismiss it. I'm not going to trade like this and give up that edge. The edge of the anti-genius.

I've spoken of Cramer, so let's leave him out of this one. That value is simple to understand (Cramer gooses stocks higher, giving a temporary, artificial boost and thus an edge by going the other way). But there is better value. And if you have read this far then I suppose I'll let you in on it. However (I caught you moving to the edge of your seat, ha!), since I don't have all day to ramble for bleeding ever, all for your benefit (not true, since I admitted already I need to valve-off some of this bile) I am merely going to paste my IM's with my East Coast contingent from earlier today. This gets across the value I'm teasing you so far about (although in the end it is still a tease, since there is there is no specific gem for today. I will follow-up though, hopefully tomorrow, or at least as soon as it shines next. Did that make sense? I'm telling you about the gems that come forth, but there is no new gem currently beheld - stay tuned)

[exoquarx is me and Eastcrow's name has been modified; to protect the innocent]...

(exoquarx): turn up cnbc. you hear that voice?
(Eastcrow): got it. sell your house short? who is that guy larry?
[Larry Kudlow]
(exoquarx): dont ask
(exoquarx): reagan administration
(exoquarx): gin soaked
(exoquarx): that's not the voice i mean
(exoquarx): this other guy here is the gov'ts patsy (steve leisman)
(exoquarx): the 2nd head from L is actually smart. ignore her.
(exoquarx): Leisman is like a harvard football jock
(exoquarx): but couldnt get into harvard
(exoquarx): they call him their chief economist - which means chief hack.
(Eastcrow): that laugh from larry is something else - new high euro
(exoquarx): ok, bought another restaurant after all. that group leading the day tho
(exoquarx): there she is again - hear that voice?
(Eastcrow): y. i like cpki
(exoquarx): yuk
(Eastcrow): pinapple pizza? Invented in calif
(exoquarx): PZZA going 2b a short soon as well
(exoquarx): you hear the woman asking questions now?
[Trish Reagan]
(Eastcrow): y
(exoquarx): cnbc always has one of these (almost always)
(exoquarx): a tv personality who is now reporting on the mkts
(Eastcrow): oh actualy cpki not looking so good now...
(exoquarx): garbage stock
(Eastcrow): garbage pizza
(exoquarx): ANYtime you hear this woman actually reveal an opinion about the mkt ...
(exoquarx): go the other way
(exoquarx): it's magic
(exoquarx): guy talking now, you mentioned, has studied mkts his whole life
[Larry Kudlow]
(exoquarx): and drunk a lot of gin
(exoquarx): dismiss him
(Eastcrow): really? she like a cramer short?
(exoquarx): no. more magical than cramer short
(exoquarx): cramer moves the stock and that gives you the edge
(exoquarx): this idiot has no clue and when she 'gets-it' and spouts an opinion (or starts shrieking about how amazing something is) get ready for the other direction
(exoquarx): this is religion, spiritual, magic
(exoquarx): unbelievable and totally accurate, in reverse
(exoquarx): when the tv-types who know NOTHING reveal an opinion about the mkt
(exoquarx): you can look for setups the other direction
(exoquarx): this plays on the idea that once everyone has figured it out the move is over
(exoquarx): similar to when the mkt makes cover of Time/Newsweek; move is over
(exoquarx): or at least ready to counter
(Eastcrow): u see the uber bear? Dow to 1000 guy?
(exoquarx): wasnt listening to him, ...the guy just now? missed it
(exoquarx): but my ear is tuned to her, believe me
(Eastcrow): he predicted that the dow was going to 1000
(exoquarx): wow, that's my prediction. back to early 80's; 25 yrs of support there
(exoquarx): what is the driver, he say?
(exoquarx): nuclear?
(exoquarx): he needs nuclear
(exoquarx): big ugly war
(exoquarx): no more people
(exoquarx): doubt he said that tho
(exoquarx): the guys who know something are less useful really
(exoquarx): not that this guy knows anything. i dont know him
(exoquarx): if they are really smart , then i listen
(exoquarx): there's a few
(exoquarx): thank god
(exoquarx): otherwise i'm more interested in the anti-genius
(exoquarx): especially when they get inspired
(exoquarx): this one is beyond annoying
[Trish Reagan again]
(exoquarx): and knows nothing
(exoquarx): more nothing than you think is possible
(exoquarx): anti genius
(exoquarx): those are the people to follow
(exoquarx): this is why i am so angry
(exoquarx): i listen to these people all day for year after year
(exoquarx): makes you want to bite a german shepard
(exoquarx): just to get the stress out
(exoquarx): she's a peach
(exoquarx): there was a women 10 and 15 yrs ago
(exoquarx): wow
(exoquarx): the best ever [Cannot remember her name]
(exoquarx): i could tell by her octave how to trade the mkt
(exoquarx): kind of like when SRS was at the high today
(exoquarx): her octave might go up
(exoquarx): she would drone, drone drone all day
(exoquarx): every day
(exoquarx): but when she began to shriek...
(exoquarx): it was a perfect trade the other way
(exoquarx): i found god
(exoquarx): that's kudlow again.
(exoquarx): gin gin gin
(exoquarx): gulp gulp gulp
(exoquarx): dismiss him
(exoquarx): no value
(Eastcrow): funny women on this show. are you talking about the one with the white blouse (br hair) not the blond in yellow?
(exoquarx): the one with the triangle for a nose
(exoquarx): not the blond
(exoquarx): i ignore her
(exoquarx): not smart enough /not dumb enough
(exoquarx): i mean the one who makes you think low of humanity when she starts squeaking
(exoquarx): i dont know what she's wearing
(exoquarx): i only have sound on
(exoquarx): can't take the pictures
(Eastcrow): lets see if she comes back. now is "power lunch" what ever that is
(Eastcrow): glup glup glup
(exoquarx): power lunch is good-morning america
(exoquarx): waste of time
(exoquarx): only reason to listen is in case news breaks
(exoquarx): otherwise a complete waste
(exoquarx): turn on channel 4 instead
(exoquarx): same shit
(exoquarx): coffee mugs should be in hand
(exoquarx): i want to punch them all
(exoquarx): cant even trade off them
(exoquarx): no value
(exoquarx): SNDA coming on now
(exoquarx): there she is
(exoquarx): big value
(exoquarx): triangle nose
(exoquarx): DGI is priced. not really trading tho
(exoquarx): priced 19. we couldnt get any shares - sucks
(Eastcrow): oh there is the one with the nose. to the right?
(exoquarx): dunno
(exoquarx): but i heard her just then
(exoquarx): coffee mug time
(exoquarx): zzzzzzzzz
(Eastcrow): well now I know why you are so screwed up - watching that show for so long.
(exoquarx): here...
(exoquarx): miss piggy
(exoquarx): trish regan
(exoquarx): nice name - trish
(exoquarx): pretty much useless today. no inspired gems
(exoquarx): see if she figures anything out tomorrow
[god willing]

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