Friday, May 28, 2010

Updated Position (+ BP butt-plug strategy)


Still pushing long here, but quite a few adjustments, and I have partially hedged-off the portfolio (so far not aggressively).

Regarding the halving of EWY (S. Korea), this is still an intermediate to long-term objective, but S. Korea is performing worse than Singapore (EWS) since putting these on. I'm looking to increase Singapore then and hopefully will be able to hold remaining Korea as well. I haven't discussed Asia much in recent months, but as it has been, I will continue to put money to work in Asia when the world is for sale. Mainland China is key there, but I am waiting for either out-performance in Shanghai, or else a bigger for sale sign.

Regarding the oil trades (out of OIL and IOC longs today), I am playing these off of BP and the stuffing of a certain hole in the gulf. I'm now on the sidelines, but looking to buy again once bad news develops that golf balls and tires treads are not the BP (butt plug) solution. The long weekend may get in the way of that trade (since news could go negative and return positive before I can trade it), but after re-entering long I'm looking to sell it again short-term once they stop the spew. After the tire-trash is presumed to fail, we should expect to see something like freshly cut (old-forest) redwood trunks stuffed into the thing.

Stopping the spew will not solve this problem, since the problem is oil-well out of hand already, but I assure you there will be short-term relief once the barn door is finally shut.

GG Planet Earth.

As far as the over-all market, I'm not counting on anything (reacting reacting reacting), but we could see the follow-through session Tuesday or so and if so I will be buying again aggressively.

Total Position: Currently 3.37-to-1 net-long; 62% invested

Currently Long (according to size): JPM (6.6%); TGT (6.6%); SBUX (6.3%); AVGO (increased today, 5.4%); EWS-Singapore (5.3%); CRM (5.1%); AKAM (4.3%); EWY-S.Korea (reduced today, 4.2%); CISG (3.4%); ULTA (3.4%)

Currently Short: SDS-long (SP500 Index Dbl-short, 7.6%); APOL (3.5%)
Note: Inverse ETFs currently weighted @1.5 x's (down from 1.65; based on relation to relative beta in long holdings);

Futures: Out 20% Jun SP500, 1099.625 ave.

Twittspit for details

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