Updated Position (+ BP butt-plug strategy)

Still pushing long here, but quite a few adjustments, and I have partially hedged-off the portfolio (so far not aggressively).

Regarding the halving of EWY (S. Korea), this is still an intermediate to long-term objective, but S. Korea is performing worse than Singapore (EWS) since putting these on. I'm looking to increase Singapore then and hopefully will be able to hold remaining Korea as well. I haven't discussed Asia much in recent months, but as it has been, I will continue to put money to work in Asia when the world is for sale. Mainland China is key there, but I am waiting for either out-performance in Shanghai, or else a bigger for sale sign.

Regarding the oil trades (out of OIL and IOC longs today), I am playing these off of BP and the stuffing of a certain hole in the gulf. I'm now on the sidelines, but looking to buy again once bad news develops that golf balls and tires treads are not the BP (butt plug) solution. The long weekend may get in the way of that trade (since news could go negative and return positive before I can trade it), but after re-entering long I'm looking to sell it again short-term once they stop the spew. After the tire-trash is presumed to fail, we should expect to see something like freshly cut (old-forest) redwood trunks stuffed into the thing.

Stopping the spew will not solve this problem, since the problem is oil-well out of hand already, but I assure you there will be short-term relief once the barn door is finally shut.

GG Planet Earth.

As far as the over-all market, I'm not counting on anything (reacting reacting reacting), but we could see the follow-through session Tuesday or so and if so I will be buying again aggressively.

Total Position: Currently 3.37-to-1 net-long; 62% invested

Currently Long (according to size): JPM (6.6%); TGT (6.6%); SBUX (6.3%); AVGO (increased today, 5.4%); EWS-Singapore (5.3%); CRM (5.1%); AKAM (4.3%); EWY-S.Korea (reduced today, 4.2%); CISG (3.4%); ULTA (3.4%)

Currently Short: SDS-long (SP500 Index Dbl-short, 7.6%); APOL (3.5%)
Note: Inverse ETFs currently weighted @1.5 x's (down from 1.65; based on relation to relative beta in long holdings);

Futures: Out 20% Jun SP500, 1099.625 ave.

Twittspit for details

June Bloom

I hate scenarios. Primarily because they're a clear net-loser over time (-EV), but also because they inevitably become self-important; something not conducive to beating this particular game of animal spirits.

Still, when you get knocked over the head with something, you may as well keep it in mind; especially if you can remain committed to flexibility (the opposite of stubborn, self-righteous, self-important, typical loser traits, etc.).

Having qualified all of that (zzzzzz), here is the picture I'm going to paint (and run like hell from as soon as I'm proven an idiot). Don't think of it as a prediction and don't expect me to take credit for it next week, regardless of how exactly or not it plays out...

I'm getting a little bullish, though not exactly long-term bullish. I'm getting bullish for June, let's leave it at that. We're a few days away now from a respectable follow-through session (An O'Neil confirmation of a new rally). We'll see some amount of re-test (more than likely, but not absolutely necessary, depending on things like whether or not the Euro remains stable), but today should keep more or less firm to the close. Following whatever re-test, back-and-fill feel at lower, but not new-low levels, the rising-volume rally day coming out of that is where the patient traders who are not interested in shorting - should jump in and buy it up. That day may be as soon as Friday, but more likely would come next week, after the Monday holiday. Lower-lows, unless it is a gap and quick recovery back through such levels, means we're still in the shredder and all of this talk was just wasted space; widows and orphans should run far and fast from such a hostile market environment in that case.

I've lightened hedges considerably, for the time being, but I expect to neutralize again before all of this is through; thus accumulating longs for coming out of this, and then letting go the hedge on the follow-through day, once it succeeds in taking place; adjusting like my hair is on fire should the upshot of this post go terribly wrong; reminding me of why I hate predictions.