Thursday, August 19, 2010

Updated Position (plus a test of leadership)

It's too late and I'm too far from completing my planned post, so I'll update positions and leave the rest for tomorrow.

I did end up hedging while I was away (shocker), which served fairly well; especially in allowing me to hold into most of my line long.

Tomorrow (Friday), take a note on the trading of CRM. This is an institutional darling and represents a leading stock within a leading group. It traded well following earnings Thursday night - if that holds true Friday it further indicates (to me) the market is only X far away from turning an important push higher. A breakdown in this group (and/or considerable other leadership) could portend a wicked September looming, while continued out-performance of leadership (something we've seen largely still) would suggest September weakness should be bought, not sold.

Something I don't talk enough about is how certain growth names represent a good measurement of hot money flow, which in turn represents a good measurement of money-flow in general. I'll be an idiot and say the next move in CRM will be consistent with move in the broader market; only the broader market will be following. Can this name trade up to and hold higher-highs, or not? CRM should be a tell on market direction; at least now on the heels of Thursday's earnings.

Chump out!

Total Position: Currently 2.33-to-1 net-long, 49% invested

Currently Long (according to size): EWS-Singapore (7.1%);
FFIV (6.6%); CRM (6%); EWZ-Brazil (5.8%); CXO (5.1%); CYT (4.6%); ISLN (3.9%)

Currently Short: TWM-long (Russell-2000 2x's-short, reduced Thursday, 10.2%)
Note: Inverse ETF currently weighted @1.65 x's

Futures: no current position

Follow Centrifugal to fade trades in real time. I can't see a thing from down here.

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