Monday, October 25, 2010

Repost - The Contrarian: On Heroes and Chiefs (22 Oct, 1998)

I'm going to start punishing you guys, as an aside, primarily to use you whilst working on a related project. Stop reading now and you're off easy!

You'll see too - I'm old suckers. Old like the fine-rug outlet that's been going out of business in your town for 20 years!

The following is from an early online stock market newsletter (The Contrarian - notes from the wall street underground), published in 1998 and 1999. The material is poorly archived, as it was published pre-Blogger and with a password-protected site. I'm beginning typing it up now because I am using some of the material on a related work. That's what I get for being born too soon - I get to re-type shit 12 years later. I'll be mixing these in with my usual amount of too-little work on the blog here, so just learn how to ignore them as we go forward ;^)
Thursday, October 22nd, 1998
On Heroes and Chiefs

Crash and burn - look out below. Did anyone notice Time and Newsweek nailed the bottom in the market - again! Now, two weeks later, the world is a much saner place, but there's still risk - it's choppy out there; be wary; don't be a hero.

I don't mean to be sarcastic (of course I do) but every time the market started a wave down this week the sentiment immediately crashed. CNBC had been running story after story, question after question, considering the possibility that we're in a bear market bounce, while guest after guest has confirmed that risk still outweighs reward, that we're near the upper end of the market's trading range, and caution is recommended. I'll tell you this: the market has been nothing but up for two weeks, and yet put buying has not let up. Near term pullbacks are going to be short-lived and largely a blue-chip affair. And these same cautious people will see safety in higher prices! It's always that way at a bottom - no one wants to stick their neck out too soon - not until the market proves it can rally 30 or 40%. Yes, give the public 30% and things certainly seems safe again.

I'm still holding plenty of stock, you may have noticed. And according to some I'm about to get nailed. I'm taking on too much risk, especially with these small caps; the Techs; the Biotechs and - God save his soul - the Internet stocks. But I am insane, dear reader. You have come to know that. I even bought back into my gold stocks the last two days.

Okay, speaking of heroes, I can't let this go. It's fire season again. Not a terrible time really, except for all the woo over firemen. I get so sick of these guys, riding around and making big noises - the blowhards. It amazes me how everyone only loves them. "Oh, they worked non-stop for four days battling that blaze - what heroes." Meanwhile, the rest of us work all year long. They get away with murder, I tell you. Hell, half the fires out there must be caused by you know who - firemen!

Then there's the paramedics (you were right to bring them up). They're no better. Out there busting their asses every day saving everyone's lives - bullocks! In New York they will run you down in the street if you don't scramble fast enough; all for some fossil or other they're trying to revive. I wouldn't be so sure. I've seen these people. They hate their jobs like everybody else, and like everybody who hates their job they want revenge; they want sabotage - anything to break up the monotony. And if they're willing to run you over out of sheer boredom, I'd hate to know what they're up to in the back with those suckers they bring in. Just stop with all that noise and and I would despise them only half as much. The Coast Guard, Search and Rescue...thank God I don't have to hear the likes of them. They're worse no doubt.

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