Learn While You Churn

The S&P 500 is now flat for the last 7 weeks; the XLF (Financials) is at the same level as early August; my fingernails have grown throughout, but I keep biting them back and they remain just as short as ever.

A true contrarian has been market-neutral for this period, but unless you've been a seller of straddles or something, that and a cup up coffee still won't buy you four bucks.

The bull market is frustration.

My advise for 95% of you (not me baby!) - unless you have something screaming at your insides, absolutely demanding you get involved, wait and be one-step late to the attack (and back-off abruptly if it doesn't then follow through; like today for the bears). Tops are a process and most of the easy money can be made by simply waiting to pounce; while firing too soon has a way of hampering your animal blood spirits.

If you're bullish and wish to play it that way, find a seat (if there are any still open) and wait for the market to post a proper breakout; hopefully remedying some of the uglier recent divergences while consolidating in the meantime.

For your sake.

Excitement is coming, but apparently not quite yet. We have acted nothing less than fairly awful for several weeks now (aside from some mostly-Chinese small cap growth names) and yet the market has resisted anything serious in terms of downside.

We shall see. I'm holding more short than long (again!), but I'm not really interested in a fight.

What's to learn you ask? The smartest trader in the world lately is the one who took a vacation; away from this arena.

Aggressive Accounts:
-Total Position: ~2-to-1 net-short, considering levered (2x's) TWM hedges
-52% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 20%
Currently Long (according to size): QSII (6.3%), DGW (5.3%), CML (new today, 4.4%), HEAT (reloaded today, 3.5%)
Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, reduced today, 11.9%), HBC (7.9%), SLAB (new today, 5.1%), XLNX (new today, 4.2%), TRLG (new today, 3%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the R2k index)
Futures Accounts: - short 40% Dec NDX, from 1759.75 ave; short 10% Dec SPX, from 1091.75; relevant accts only

Other Accounts:
-Total Position: ~1.4-to-1 net-short, considering levered (2x's) TWM hedge
-38% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 20%
Currently Long (according to size): QSII (6.3%), DGW (5.3%), CML (new today, 4.4%), HEAT (reloaded today, 3.5%)
Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, reduced today, 11.9%), SSG-long (Semiconductor Dbl-short, 6.9%)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM, and SSG represent being dbl-short their respective indices)
Futures Accounts: NA

Slippery Slope (snowpack list of eligible shorts)

The UAE has saved the planet this weekend, coming to the aid of a troubled Dubai World (pictured above).

I for one am really pleased, since I couldn't understand how such a distant, seemingly insignificant default in the Mideast could ski-rope the global markets by the neck and pull it off the mountain.

Ha!

Personally, I don't care in hoot's hell what the catalyst is. If I sneeze and my arm falls off, then I know I'm coming down with a cold, sure. But that's got to be the good news, right?

Futures are higher tonight and the potential for a reasonable gap-up for equities is strong. My eyes are burning from screening a couple thousand charts the last 48 hours, but I'm emerging finally now with my new go-to list of eligible shorts.

I'll key on this as an attack-list throughout the week and key the groups especially which lead us lower on any given session. I'm not trying to short the strongest names in the market. Some of these still show reasonable, overall relative strength (RS), but those few are exhibiting some other negative divergence (and all of the groups below are declining notably in RS for the previous 1-to-6 weeks).

Why am I getting short this market? Do I see the next shoe dropping for the markets?

Ha and Ha! I'm getting short for a variety of technical and psychological indicators (and a hint of fundamentals, but fundamentals have been mostly negative for some time already; you knew that - which is why you were either on the sideline or else getting short some many months ago...let's not go there for your sake).

Severe downside? Oh sure, most definitely most maybe, it will perhaps be serious.

Or not. That's not my game this decade. This is the decade to let the market define the terms. I'm just a trader with smugs and few hugs (I sense you noticed I was getting snarky just now) and why the devil should I pretend to know how this chess board is going to play out six and sixty moves from now?

You keep me posted on that and we'll stay friends, okay?

Anyway, as always, this is not a list of here-and-now shorts, but an eligible list of my personal candidates. This week's screen is focused on the industry groups, both highly and poorly ranked, which have been dropping notably in terms of relative strength (RS). My selection process beyond that is based on divergences, liquidity and more.

Good trading - should be another fun weak(sic!)...

Banks-Money Center:
UBS
BK
HBC
C
MS
BAC
BCS
WFC
JPM
LYG
GS
DB

Finance-Investmnt Brokers:
RJF
IBKR (thin)
LAB (thin)
OXPS
SCHW
MF
NITE
BGCP
CS
BPSG

Finance-REITs:
KIM
LXP
PCL
IRET
FSP
REG
CUZ
DCT
CSE
ANH
UDR
CPT
AMB
DRE
WRE
MPG
FR
RYN
MFA
BXP
VNO
LRY
WRI
BMR
SPG
BDN

Finance-Mortgage Related:
FNM
FRE
OCN

Electronic-Semiconductor Equip:
WFR
ATMI (thin)
MKSI (thin)
FORM
AMAT
VRGY
LRCX
BRKS
KLAC
AEIS
CYMI
NVLS
VSEA

Electronic-Semiconductor Mfg:
ZRAN
IDTI
SIGM
CY
MCHP
XLNX
SPIL
IRF
CRUS
SMTC
NSM
ISIL
AMTL
HIMX
MCRL
ANAD
BRCM
LLTC
STM
DIOD
VLTR
STEC
ONNN
PMCS
TQNT
SLAB
TSRA
SNDK

Telecom-Wireless Equip:
NVTL
ERIC
CMTL
NOK
TRMB
QCOM
RIMM
HSTX
GRMN

Telecom-Svcs:
CBEY
ALSK
LVLT (penny stock)
TNDM

Elec-Component Connector:
MOLX
TNL
IIVI
VSH

Computer-Software Security:
VRSN
SYMC
MFE

Computer-Networking:
ELON
RVSN
PLCM
JNPR
CSCO
BRCD
RVBD

Internet-Software:
RNWK
GIGM
WBSN
ARBA

Commcl Svcs-Schools:
LRN
COCO
APOL
APEI
ESI
STRA
DV
LINC

Apparel-Clothing Mfg:
CRI
TRLG
ZQK (penny stock)
COLM
LIZ
UA

Retail-Clothing/Shoe:
HOTT
BEBE
WTSLA
JOSB
FL
CWTR
ZUMZ
PSUN
NWY
PLCE
SSI
BKE
LTD
ARO
SMRT

Oil/Gas Field Svcs:
NR
WEL
ALY
TRMA
DVR
HOS
TDW
SLB
KEG
HAL
HLX
GLBL
CLB
MDR

Oil/Gas Intl-Exploration:
EGY
NXY
TLM

Metal Ores-Gold/Silver:
AEM
JAG

Machinery-Metal Hdlg/Automation:
HURC
CASC
KTEC
PRCP

Funeral Svcs & Related:
STEI

Medical-Biomed/Biotech:
ITMN
RIGL
CYPB
ALTH
MDCO
VPHM
ALNY
PDLI
GERN
CRXL
ARNA
MATK
REGN
AOB
AMAG
ALKS
BIIB

Quicknote on Developing Action

I'll chime in briefly, since I believe a couple of important elements are now quite clear in the market.

I'm not so interested in the catalyst for this week's negative development (Dubai World) as I am the behavior of the market leading up to it. Action in recent weeks has been clearly distributive and sentiment in recent sessions reached extreme readings. With today's break, even though there is a notable bounce from the opening levels, we have what I would argue as an Intermediate term top now in hand.

This does not, again, suggest the degree of downside and I am not going to sell myself either way on that regard. I prefer to address it as it develops. I'm not against buying stocks on the way down if I am protected and action is favorable (leadership is behaving well, relative to the major indices; charts remain formidable; and signs of accumulation are evident).

I suspect you are looking at the bounce right now. Last night's extremes in the futures markets occurred with very little liquidity, setting up a gap-lower + bounce today; which cannot be surprising. The catalyst, which is not so important, is so far a perfect excuse to buy the gap-lower (sentiment and animal spirits have been very high; we had not yet broken-down in terms of price; many traders chasing performance can argue Dubai is not our problem and they had better buy the weakness).

Upside should be limited though, short-term and as such I believe today is your best bounce to counter. The last hour could go either way, but breadth is extreme enough negative that downside in that last hour, even though we have been only straight up since the open, should not be surprising.

I'm really not so concerned. I'm scaling into a short position here (which, among other things gives me a better ability to accumulate stocks lower if I am so inspired) and I think the levels for benching losses on these shorts is now readily defined (not so far away either, in terms of percentages). Thus the risk/reward equation is rather simple at the moment; for this trader.

Don't do what I do. But as long as we hold our defined highs now, I'm selling strength.

I'll update my position later. If interested you can review the trades live on my Twitter page in the meantime. Good luck out there - keep it simple and keep emotions in check.

Updated Position (very light into Wednesday)

-Total Position: 100% net-long, but only 15% invested

Currently Long (according to size): QSII (6.6%), TLEO (5.5%), DEER (3.1%)

Currently Short (according to size): no position

Futures Accounts: no position

Updated Position (1.5-to-1 net-long; for now)

Monday wrap-up was posted just now at Evil Speculator - HERE.

-Total Position: ~1.5-to-1 net-long, considering levered (2x's) TWM hedges
-55% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 39.5%

Currently Long (according to size): HMIN (5.8%), TLEO (5.6%), QSII (new today, 5%), CYD (increased today, 4.2%), DGW (4.3%), ASIA (4.1%), CRR (4%), RINO (3.3%), DEER (new today, 3.3%)

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 15.4%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective index)

Futures Accounts: -10% Dec Euro, most recently from 1.4864; relevant accts only

Updated Position (+Back Pocket Leadership List of Longs)

My Back-Pocket Leadership List of Longs was posted earlier today at Evil Speculator - HERE.

Aggressive Accounts:
-Total Position: ~1.75-to-1 net-short, considering levered (2x's) TWM and QID hedges
-65% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 29%
Currently Long (according to size): HMIN (5.8%), TLEO (new friday, 5.5%), DGW (4.3%), ASIA (reloaded friday, 4%), CRR (new friday, 3.9%), RINO (3.4%), CYD (2.3%)
Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 16%), QID-long (NDX double-short, 9.7%), AAPL (added aftrmkt friday, 5.3%), COF (increased friday, 5.3%)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and QID represent being dbl-short their respective indices)
Futures Accounts: -short 20% Dec NDX, from 1764.75 friday; short 10% Dec Euro, most recently from 1.4864 re-entry friday; relevant accts only

Other Accounts:
-Total Position: ~1.4-to-1 net-short, considering levered (2x's) TWM, QID and SKF hedges
-57% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 29%
Currently Long (according to size): HMIN (5.8%), TLEO (new friday, 5.5%), DGW (4.3%), ASIA (reloaded friday, 4%), CRR (new friday, 3.9%), RINO (3.4%), CYD (2.3%)
Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 14%), QID-long (NDX double-short, 9.7%), SKF-long (Financials double-short, 4.1%)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM, QID and SKF represent being dbl-short their respective indices)
Futures Accounts: NA

Night Gallery (butterfly dreams and superbee stings)

Updated Position (+Trader's Guide to Sipping Kool Aid)

A Trader's Guide to Sipping Kool Aid was just posted to Evil Speculator here.

I reduced overall exposure to under 50% today, while moving to slightly net-short (for now!). The Chinese growth names kept me from trouble today - tomorrow though, I don't know. Can't say i'm in love with the deteriorating action in the rest of the market.

Total Position: ~1.25-to-1 net-short, considering levered (2x's) TWM hedge
-44.6% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 25%

Currently Long: (according to size): HMIN (reduced today, now 5.7%), DGW (reduced today, now 4.5%), HEAT (reduced today, now 4.4%), HRBN (4.4%), RINO (3.5%), CYD (2.3%)

Currently Short: (according to size): TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 16%), COF (new today, 4%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective index).

Futures Accounts:
-reloaded 20% short Dec Euro, from 1.4922 overnight tonight; relevant accts only

Quicknote on today's negative action

No time to update at moment, but am keeping up live w Twitter feed on right. Suffice to say, no longer net-long here. Either market neutral or net-short, depending on how you want to weigh the double-short TWM.

Internals are severe-negative this session. I'd say this does not bode well for going forward, but it definitely does not bode well for today.

Updated Position (re re re - long baby long!)

It may seem like I'm yo-yo-ing up and down and maybe I am (ha!). Actually I'm just grinding out a subtle living, while trying not to get struck crossing the freeway.

What cannot go down usually goes up and that is my experience. Today's early negative internals forced either faith or action, if you were holding longs; I took action. Later in the session though, it became subtly clear this ship ain't yet ready to sink.

If P then Q, right? Well then, if not-P then not-Q is also true - I'm getting long again.

Long and wrong - bring it on!

Total Position: ~2.25-to-1 net-long, considering levered (2x's) TWM hedge
-49.5% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 39%

Currently Long: (according to size): DGW (increased again today, now 8.1%), HMIN (7.9%), HEAT (looking to reduce tomorrow, now 7.4%), SHOO (5.3%), HRBN (reloaded today, 4.5%), RINO (reloaded today, 3.3%), CYD (2.4%)

Currently Short: (according to size): TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 10.8%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective index).

Futures Accounts:
-no current position (thankfully)

Updated Position (re-shift neutral)

Morning coffee posted over at Evil Speculator today here.

Total Position: roughly market-neutral, considering levered (2x's) TWM and QID hedges
-45.7% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 29%

Currently Long: (according to size): HMIN (7.9%), HEAT (7.1%), DGW (6.6%), SHOO (5.4%), CYD (2.4%)

Currently Short: (according to size): TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 10.8%), QID (new today, 5.5%)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and QID represent being dbl-short their respective indices).

Futures Accounts:
-[Edit: had been stopped earlier on Dec Euro Short, worser level, 1.4983, in relevant accounts. No current futures position]

Updated Position (slight shift long)

I scaled into a modest net-long position today, by adding long and reducing the TWM-hedge.

Some thoughts on new long HEAT (Heatsmart Inc.) were posted earlier today at Evil Speculator here.

Total Position: ~ 1.66-to-1 net-long, considering levered (2x's) TWM hedge
-40% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 29%

Currently Long: (according to size): HMIN (7.9%), HEAT (new today, 6.67%), DGW (increased today, 6.6%), SHOO (5.3%), CYD (2.4%)

Currently Short: (according to size): TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, reduced today, 10.7%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective index).

Futures Accounts:
-10% short Dec Euro: reloaded tonight at 1.4872 (relevant accts)
(Covered 20% Dec Euro today, 1.4830 ave; from 1.49215 ave. previous entry Friday)

Updated Position (+ latest Trader's Guide)

The latest (and timely) Losing Like a Winner: A Trader's Guide was posted just now to Evil Speculator here.

Total Position: roughly market-neutral, considering levered (2x's) TWM hedge
-34% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 20%

Currently Long: (according to size): HMIN (7.8%), SHOO (5.4%), DGW (4.2%), CYD (2.3%)

Currently Short: (according to size): TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 14.2%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective index).

Futures Accounts:
-20% short Dec Euro: now from 1.49215 (relevant accts)

Quicknote (scaling back, keeping neutral)

Unfortunately, I no longer remain an idiot.

It could be worse. I could have been so clever as to be fully short coming into today. I was leaning in that direction up to Friday (in aggressive accounts at least), but I was just stupid enough to neutralize on Friday's ever-bear-trap drop. Futures accounts aside, today has not been so nasty as a result.

Futures have been nasty today, yes.

Going forward, it is going to get interesting, or so I suspect. But my discipline forces me to shrink in spite of my hunger to get busy and make up for being on the wrong side of the tape. I can't self-destruct much from sidelines. The major component necessary for me to get involved (and importantly, to stay involved) is I need to be gaining first (making money) and out-performing second. When that fails, I shrink into a ball, climb a sacred mountain, club a nursing seal pup, or any and everything necessary for me to right my head and be poised to strike again.

For what it's worth, this is my suspicion: Time-wise - we're getting close to an important turn (either from up-to-down or else up-to-sideways, in terms of the major trend). Price-wise - it could get more dramatic (still!) or it could end with today's close; I'm not in the business to predict. Target-wise - a shift downward may not be so extreme (I'm not shouting any Dow Jonestown clarion calls here). There are enough negative divergences to cause concern, but I'll prefer to monitor the health of everything as we decline and decide then whether or not to load up long for the end of the year; or else focus short instead, should the world come undone.

If we just drives higher before driving still higher still - I'll have to come in long again; and hopefully sooner rather than later.

Update on Portfolio (shorts neutralized for now)

Something has changed and some things remain the same. I still don't like the larger picture, but I still must react.

Rather than stepping out of the short-side today and going hunting, I went ahead and picked up several leadership longs, looking for the potential pivot higher. So far so good.

I don't expect any terrific upside, but if I am surprised I would not like to be skewered in my shock. I'm making money at both ends this week, which is nice since I am the one skewering in that case; but I have no pretense for keeping perfect.

Bears can go back to grumbling. Bulls can go back to foaming. I'm just a working stooge trying to eat a worm now and then.

RINO (remains a beast) reported today. I'm foaming some over that one, but still no sign of a 2ndary date. I did trade into SWI today though, with the same outlined strategy. SWI management held 73% of the outstanding shares prior to today's offer; priced at 18.75 and will be benched there, on closing basis.

One note: yesterday aggressive accounts were really 10-to-1 net-short and not 2.5-to-1 as originally posted (I failed to update that part of the position) Some were confused why conservative accounts were twice as short as the aggressive. Today's allocation below now is accurate. It's not like you care, I know, but I have a couple of widows and orphans around here that really do give a damn.

Aggressive Accounts:
-Total Position: ~1.5-to-1 net-short, considering levered (2x's) TWM hedge
-57% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 27.5%
Currently Long: (according to size): HMIN (6.2%), SWI (5.3%), ASIA (5.3%),HRBN (4.6%), RINO (4.2%), CYD (2.2%)
Currently Short: (according to size):
-TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 15.2%), WTW (4.9%), PEGA (4.9%), GS (4.7%), BUSE (covered today, 3.21)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective index).
Futures Accounts:
-20% Short Dec SPX, from 1090.25
-10% short Dec Euro: trading actively - presently short 10% from 1.4885 (updates coming via Twitter here)

Other Accounts:
-Total Position: ~1.33-to-1 net-long, considering levered (2x's) TWM hedge
-38% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 26%
Currently Long: (according to size):HMIN (6.2%), SWI (5.3%), ASIA (5.3%),HRBN (4.6%), RINO (4.2%), CYD (2.2%)
Currently Short: (according to size):
-TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 11.3%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective index).
Futures Accounts: NA

Quicknote (holding short)

Still not in love with the action (leadership remains negative relative to Dow, etc.), and I'm keeping with SPX and NDX closes above October highs as benchmarks for moving aside from short stance (likely moving aside and taking a bit of a break should that end up the case).

That equates to >1101 on SPX + >1781 on NDX.

The dollar is getting a bid today and the Euro is leading on the downside (something new). I covered the Euro futures short last hour, but will re-visit if it doesn't begin to bounce. The currency situation is likely to weigh on stocks now. If not, it is clear few of us know what is going on and I will retrench until I have a better read.

That said, I presume the equity side is about to break. If so, we'll see if there is any follow-through going lower...or not.

Aggressive Accounts:
-Total Position: ~2.5-to-1 net-short, considering levered (2x's) TWM hedge
-28% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 4%
Currently Long (according to size): RINO (3.8%)
Currently Short (according to size):
-TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 15%), WTW (5%), PEGA (5%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective index).
Futures Accounts:
-20% Short Dec SPX, from 1090.25
-Covered 20% Dec Euro, 1.4895 ave. (from 1.4987 ave.)

Other Accounts:
-Total Position: ~5-to-1 net-short, considering levered (2x's) TWM hedge
-12% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 4%
Currently Long (according to size): RINO (3.8%)
Currently Short (according to size):
-TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 11%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective index).
Futures Accounts: NA

Quicknote on Portfolios

I've positioned short now in aggressive, relevant accounts. I'm pinpointing closing at new highs for the SP500 and NDX as benchmarks for maximum loss (maximum before adjusting). I'm looking at a GS close above the 50-day MA (presently 177.80) as a bench for that particular trade.

In other accounts I am slightly net-short, considering the levered TWM position. The slight net-short exposure affords me being able to add onto new long set-ups without having to stick out my neck. Here too, the same benchmarks above will influence this exposure; I will not continue net-short if benchmarks are breached.

Aggressive Accounts:
-Total Position: ~2.5-to-1 net-short, considering levered (2x's) TWM hedge
-32% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 12%
Currently Long (according to size): ASIA (4.3%), HRBN (4.2%), RINO (3.6%)
Currently Short (according to size):
-TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 15%)
-GS (4.7%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective index).
Futures Accounts: 20% Short Dec SPX, from 1090.25 (1-to-3 day trade for relevant accts)

Other Accounts:
-Total Position: ~1.5-to-1 net-short, considering levered (2x's) TWM hedge
-24% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 13%
Currently Long (according to size): HRBN (4.5%), ASIA (4.3%), RINO (3.5%)
Currently Short (according to size):
-TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 11.2%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective index).
Futures Accounts: NA

Process of Illumination (bearcare for dummies)

Process of Illumination (bearcare for dummies) posted earlier at Evil Speculator - here.

-Total Position: ~1.33-to-1 net-short, considering levered (2x's) TWM hedge
-21% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 12%

Currently Long (according to size): ASIA (4.3%), HRBN (4.2%), RINO (3.6%)

Currently Short (according to size):
-TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 8.8%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective index).

Futures Accounts: 20% Short Dec SPX, from 1090.25 (1-to-3 day trade for relevant accts)

A Trader's Guide to Secondary Offerings (Part 2)

The latest Trader's Guide posted earlier today at Evil Speculator here.

Current Holdings:

-Total Position: ~1.3-to-1 net-long, considering levered (2x's) TWM hedge
-24% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 17%

Currently Long (according to size): DGW (5.4%), ASIA (4.1%),HRBN (4.1%), RINO (3.7%)

Currently Short (according to size):
-TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 6.8%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective index).

Futures Accounts: no current position