Quicknote on Action (chinese growth suspect)

The market indeed rocked higher, so I got that right.

Or wrong.

Chinese growth, where I accumulated most of my line, is acting poorly this week. Shanghai is at an almost two month low, down another 2.3% last night. So while US equities continue (so far) to fade the stronger Dollar and have worked back to highs, leadership growth in China is behaving a bit sick; especially in terms of relative strength.

Given that this has been the leadership in the market, it commands some attention. We might see strength in the China names between now and year end (cannot count out the strong seasonal period we're entering, unless/until it becomes clear the market is selling-off in spite of the calendar). But without renewed strength in the higher-growth Chinese plays listed in the US, I wont remain bullish for too long; China or elsewhere.

Total Position: ~3.5-to-1 net-long; 34% invested; Pure longs = 29%

Currently Long (according to size): CML (reduced today, 5.9%), AMZN (5.4%), HMIN (4.9%), CISG (4.1%), RINO (3.7%), HRBN (reduced today, 3%), ULTA (2.2%)

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (R2k Dbl-short, reduced today 5.1%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective index)

Futures Accounts: No current position (see the Twittspitt for details)

Update on Portfolio (shorts neutralized for now)

Something has changed and some things remain the same. I still don't like the larger picture, but I still must react.

Rather than stepping out of the short-side today and going hunting, I went ahead and picked up several leadership longs, looking for the potential pivot higher. So far so good.

I don't expect any terrific upside, but if I am surprised I would not like to be skewered in my shock. I'm making money at both ends this week, which is nice since I am the one skewering in that case; but I have no pretense for keeping perfect.

Bears can go back to grumbling. Bulls can go back to foaming. I'm just a working stooge trying to eat a worm now and then.

RINO (remains a beast) reported today. I'm foaming some over that one, but still no sign of a 2ndary date. I did trade into SWI today though, with the same outlined strategy. SWI management held 73% of the outstanding shares prior to today's offer; priced at 18.75 and will be benched there, on closing basis.

One note: yesterday aggressive accounts were really 10-to-1 net-short and not 2.5-to-1 as originally posted (I failed to update that part of the position) Some were confused why conservative accounts were twice as short as the aggressive. Today's allocation below now is accurate. It's not like you care, I know, but I have a couple of widows and orphans around here that really do give a damn.

Aggressive Accounts:
-Total Position: ~1.5-to-1 net-short, considering levered (2x's) TWM hedge
-57% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 27.5%
Currently Long: (according to size): HMIN (6.2%), SWI (5.3%), ASIA (5.3%),HRBN (4.6%), RINO (4.2%), CYD (2.2%)
Currently Short: (according to size):
-TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 15.2%), WTW (4.9%), PEGA (4.9%), GS (4.7%), BUSE (covered today, 3.21)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective index).
Futures Accounts:
-20% Short Dec SPX, from 1090.25
-10% short Dec Euro: trading actively - presently short 10% from 1.4885 (updates coming via Twitter here)

Other Accounts:
-Total Position: ~1.33-to-1 net-long, considering levered (2x's) TWM hedge
-38% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 26%
Currently Long: (according to size):HMIN (6.2%), SWI (5.3%), ASIA (5.3%),HRBN (4.6%), RINO (4.2%), CYD (2.2%)
Currently Short: (according to size):
-TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, 11.3%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective index).
Futures Accounts: NA

At Gravity's End

The question on the Street is evolving now to whether we'll hold and close above Dow 10,000 (that important psychological milestone), or will we see something resembling a pull-back.

I need a new career - more certain than ever now I'm very likely, definitely doomed. My only hope is Trish is off the air when 10k is hit. I'll likely be forced to sell everything if not.

Internals are strongly positive, but not severe today. INTC, JPM and Dow 10k hats are dominating the headlines, but it is the Chinese ADR's which continue dominating leadership growth.

Security software provider Asiainfo (ASIA) is the latest big breakout. ASIA is doing major volume, breaking out of a roughly 6-month base.

I like this thin name Harbin Electric (HRBN) perhaps most. This is the stock that broke out on the news they were buying another company (an accretive deal; I do like breakouts where the catalyst is driven on buying another company).

RINO (Rino International) is the exception today, but that stock was extended beyond extended, so I'm not ready to call an end to the Chinese growth-stock surge just yet. I unloaded the RINO position at the open today (>27). I will likely lay-off now at least until they price the upcoming secondary.

I don't want to speak more than that, sorry. Good luck with your shorts.

-Total Position: 100% net-long
-60% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 60%

Currently Long (according to size): RKT (7.1%), DGW (7%), HRBN (7%), CFSG (6.4%), ASIA (6.2%, going on 7%), HMIN (6.1%), ULTA (5.1%), CLW (4.2%), SWM (4%), PTI (4%), CHBT (3.6%)

Currently Short (according to size): no current position

Futures Accounts: no current position

Sans Hedge (dare the bear)

It's usually the action on the way down that matters most; as far as positioning and allocation.

While I'm no doubt going to get pounded for it tomorrow, following the slew of earnings reporting and subsequent thrashings tonight (Wed, Thurs, etc.), I let go hedges today and am positioned fully long again; albeit only 46% exposed.

I can't say much more than that. If I were stupid enough to get long-only and then chide the other side, I'd be stuffing envelopes for a living.

Tune in tomorrow to see me eaten alive.

-Total Position: 100% net-long
-46% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 46%

Currently Long (according to size): DGW (6.6%), HRBN (6.6%), CFSG (increased today, 6.2%), HMIN (increased yesterday, 6.1%), ULTA (5%), CLW (4.1%), SWM (4%), PTI (3.9%), RINO (3.%)

Currently Short (according to size): no current position

Futures Accounts: no current position

Trinkets and Trims

I've settled down a bit today. Went to bed late, got up early and listening now to Bob Dylan Christmas songs to ramp energy back upward.

As far as the market, it's quiet so far, for a change, so I'm not changing all that much; even if I am increasingly concerned about the ensuing face-plant I'm going to have to dodge once the roof starts caving.

Actually, I prefer this set-up (hence the aggressive allocation). I sit, mostly quiet, climbing up and down my plywood box of worry; convincing myself that I am on guard for disaster when really I am just jamming the throttle forward with whatever amount of thrust I can justify.

Fear is fine, but full fanged fighting is better.

Anyway, enough talk. I'm filling white space again and your tired little eyes have so many place still to run. On your bike - off you go. Come back after the train wreck and look for the carnage. I'll be strung up and spiced, like a carcass of pepper jerky.

...Bob Dylan Christmas songs still in the background.

-Total Position: 11-to-1 net-long
-61% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 56%

Currently Long (according to size): DGW (increased today, 6.8%), SXCI (6.6%), HRBN (6.5%), CFSG (6.4%), SWM (6.1%), BCSI (5.2%), HMIN (reduced today, 5.1%), WYN (new today, 5%), CLW (4.5%), PTI (3.9%)

Currently Short (according to size): TER (5.1%)

Futures Accounts: no current position