Tuesday, December 04, 2007

Linger Foods

More snores in the market today and I'm up (so far) in the face of it all, so I still sense something is right with this portfolio at this time.

The Nasdaq, NDX and the Russell 2000 all touched their 10-day m.a.'s today and the Dow touched its 200-day. These moving averages are all holding so far and action remains quiet.

I wouldn't be crazy to say we'll see a resumption of the uptrend rather soon now. If not the second half today, perhaps tomorrow. This is as orderly as a pullback gets. Nothing tells me the new up-trend has changed.

However, I'm still not very active and not heavily exposed. I bot a 25% position today in TNH, which touched its 50-day m.a. (finally, I'm long a little fertilizer!). I also bot a 50% position in solar play JASO (ave. 55.86).

I expect I will do some buying in a number places if we do in fact turn up from here. I've got plenty of spots in mind but I don't want to be the only guy at the party, so I'm sitting on my hands still, eating the deviled eggs and Swedish meatballs left-over here from last week.

HOLX is giving an opportunity here. They announced they'll offer $1.3 billion in convertible notes and the stock knocked down 4% early; still down 3% now. I'm holding a 50%-sized position and while today would have been a nicer entry for a first tranche, I'm not going to fear this name anywhere >62 and if it rides back up I expect I'll add another tranche (depending) when I see it >68 or so.

I'm having a good time with the new Cramer stock, PWRD, today. He jacked that one up 9% in a flash last night by opening his mouth. I generally get short his plays for a quick trade when he jams them up 3% or more; in the aftermkt. Then I generally cover the first hour of the following session. That worked beautifully today, but last night I was nervous. I've got the sound off and I'm short this thing just on the graphics, before I have time to digest any of the drool. Trust me, it's better that way. But then I had to stomach the fact that I was now short a Chinese video-gamer, which is also a recent issue (= higher volatility) and has a new product about to launch involving an interactive version of some popular movie set to premier to 300 Billion people (and a Premier). On top of that, this is the group already on fire due to first, ATVI's earnings (last week) and second, the investment/merger of ATVI with the gaming arm of Vivendi.

I sold short PWRD last night at 26.50, covered it in the opening minutes at 26.08, then I went crazy and bot long at 25.86. I only bot 40% of the original short amount, but I might actually hold this one for a bit, depending. It's acting well so far, we'll see. Cramer remains my favorite guy to hate...but I watch him with the volume OFF and for fading set-ups of his big feature of the day. After the first 10 or 15 minutes he is -EV for sure.

At the moment then, I'm long Cramer - I'll be damned.

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