Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Seasonal Thyme

The Street rang a bell yesterday.

The smaller, broader indices like the Russell 2000 and the NYSE kicked in and are forming the blissful W-bottom as we speak. If it completes, this implies a run in the smaller arena through and into January. I'm not salting lightly - this is the seasonal young-greens period beginning now and senior maniacs like me are well in-line for the early bird specials.

I mentioned the explicit action in CSIQ, which has further fattened me for winter, but while that one is extreme I'm seeing dozens which are poised to emerge from very nice patterns (and they are not all solars!).

I've piled into first tranches of YGE (ok, that one is solar), SLT and PWRD.

Yesterday I mentioned if GOOG re-captures its 50-day it would be significant (for that stock and for the market as a whole). Naturally I piled large into GOOG above 672.

Let's just say I am loaded now - for BEAR!

A very small/thin name potentially breaking out now is AIR (currently 35.12). I have not fired there, but it did nearly a day's normal volume in the first hour - I might step in before the day is out, depending.

I have 15 names now, so I only want actual and clear breakouts for anything new. And I will drop anything that is not performing, because I am not normally my own mutual fund and I have too many children not to sell the runts who never seem to amount to anything.

Here is the ugly bunch for now, ranked according to size: GOOG, MR, AAPL, ONXX, JASO, MICC, LOGI, SLT, SIGM, FWLT, CAF, TNH, PWRD, YGE, CSIQ...whoa daddy.

If I had to pick only one of these (I wouldn't want that!) based on the power in the chart I'd pick JASO at the moment....still a monster.

And the funny thing is, none of these too-many names are really acting badly today, and the portfolio is up more than a smidgen while the market is lackluster at moment and down. Having no fires to put out on a down day with this many positions is highly unusual. Think about it for a moment - I should be upside-down bleeding while Dianna carves me a new nameplate, but somehow I am spared...well, so far.

Everyone has been complaining about this market (indeed, today's P/C numbers show voluminous disbelief in the upside) and yet we are seeing monster moves out there; confirmations of an intermediate term bottom; and now small-cap out-performance taking hold at a time when those names typically out-perform nicely into January. What do these people want?

I don't need years of visibility to buy a market. If I could make but one bet for the next few years I'd be shorter than Mel Gibson on crutches. I don't need no stinkin' long run.

This is the new and now year-end rally sweathearts (even if it is a smite refined in the teeth) - this is the seasonal sweet-spot. If you can't get long this market because you are worried about all that is buzzing in the fear-tumbler these days, then you need a new hobby (my opinion). And if you are a professional and you can't buy this market here - then you are broken!

Either that or too many of your investors are out-flowing your buying power. I feel that pain brother.

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