Classically Trained, for the Revolution

Thursday, January 31, 2008

Clarion Whisper

Forget what have you done for me lately? Rather, what will you do for me tomorrow?

How this market digests bellwether Google's slackluster earnings (out after the close today) and tomorrow's employment report is all we're really concerned with tonight, right?

Reversal of fortunes are rampant lately, as we re-re-reverse curse and course on an almost daily basis. But one thing is clear - the troubled Financial, Consumer and Homebuilder industries are trending higher; regardless of how bad it is out there.

If we choke back tomorrow on hapless jobs and bellwether bungees, it's really only a matter of time before we re-turn these worms higher again. Scrambling shorts are surely playing a role, but there is significant buying going on at the same time, and for the moment both the shorts and the buyers are hoping to buy these stocks lower.

Today saw a confirmation rally day in the Russell 2000. Whether the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 also managed confirmation of a new trend is open for debate. You can make a case for either side, but I think the picture in the R2k is clearest - smaller-cap stocks have now begun a new trend.

I wouldn't call for any new secular trend here. I wouldn't say that in the long-term stocks will always out-perform. We've finally seen the beginning of the end for this old bull and if I could only make one bet for the next three years I would hammer the under.

But we have uber-stimulus, in an election year (pull out the almanac), we have pessimistic barber shop economists spouting from all corners and we see new up-trends developing.

Ideally, I should be pulling up my boat from the Bahamas only now. I'm underwater (wet pussy) instead of calm, cool and fat. But this is now and now is finally starting to click. I'll keep fighting (although in varying degrees based on action) until the major indices print lower-lows, or I blow a gasket; or both at the same time, likely.

Outside of Ag (Fertilizer, Farm Machinery and Agricultural Operations), new leadership is fuzzy at the moment and possibly an indication nothing secular is developing. Metals and Steel, for instance, is not exactly how you expect a new bull tape to print.

Tomorrow will be interesting. The Dry Powder List from last night was blasting Jesus all day, so it stands to reason then we'll see blood in these names tomorrow. That's just the way the ball has been bouncing lately.

However, if there is still a job being created in the world (or if the market doesn't give a poor rat's ass), I won't need it. Not with this bunch.

Current Longs (by size): LNN, JASO, CLP, DBRN, SBUX, BYI, TITN, IRIS, CAF, CUZ

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