New Live-List

The futures are down pretty good tonight. Asia is taking further body shots.

I'm coming in light - if I can sense any sign of firming after the gap-down, I am going to trade into some of the areas I think will reverse and/or hold up the strongest in the market right now.

I spent the weekend looking for this combination: Stocks from groups that are most aided by new, uber-stimulus + No new lows last week + Recent insider buying + High short interest.

At the moment, I don't really mind if some of these are lagging significantly in terms of relative strength, since at the moment most of the power in the market is coming from stocks exhibiting these characteristics. These type stocks held up relatively well on Friday, for instance, giving back only a small amount of the recent gains and on considerably smaller volume. I may take a shot at one or two names at the open, but as soon as I can see these as beginning to reverse, following the down-open firming, or at the very least clearly firming, I will start firing into several. I need to see the continuing resilience (retracement-life) first.

Put another way, If pigs are still swimming Monday, I'm diving in with them.

RETAIL Clothing/Apparel/Shoe:
1. The Retail sectors are one of the areas most aided by the new stimulus and lower rates.
2. This list all show recent strong-to-heavy insider buys.
3. They all have significant short-interest levels.
4. These names did not go to lower-lows on the panic last week (exception CACH briefly.
5. None of these names hold debt.

(Keep an open mind, there are some floozies here, several of which were a short staple for me in '07)

SMRT (6.5% short int; guided lower on 10th and then Chairman bot >$1m stock following)
DBRN (12.5% shorts; they guided lower on Jan 10th and insiders bot heavy on 17-18th)
CHS (8.7% short int; heavy insider buys)
CBK (13% short int; multiple recent month insider buys, though not heavy)
CHRS (14% short int; heavy insider buying)
CACH (8.75% shorts; multiple recent, decent insider buys)
HOTT (yikes, but same theme)


Homebuilder:
NVR (strong relative strength; 28% short int.; Chairman bot >$50M! in stock early Nov; EPS is due here on Tuesday, before the open).
-I left out the rest of the group for now; they are too extended and/or suspect. This appears to be the real quality of the group. I would prefer not buying this below Friday's low, which would be moving back below the 200-day ma.

Finance/REITS:
The Financial REIT group jumped from 107 to 65 of 197 ranked industry groups, IBD.
1. Note that the group was already up to 107 before last week (it was ranked 161 3-mo's ago)
2. There has been consistent and massive insider buying in these stocks (began around Nov., grew in Dec. and still larger in Jan.)
3. These stocks have large short interest (interesting combination, large shorts vs. large insider buys)
4. These stocks had been basing/consolidating for some time, then held their lows in the recent panic.

(I have never bot a REIT in my life. These are unprecedented times indeed!)

HME (decent insider buy Nov07; 15% short int; yield 5.4%; decent relative strength (RS))
CDR (multiple insider buys; 8.5% yield; 8% short int.; ex-divd date 2-6-08)
CUZ ($1M inside buy by Cousins himself; 11.6% short int; 6.3% yield; did trade lower-low)
ALX (enormous insider buying, no divd, 3.5% short int; did briefly trade to lower-low)
JRT (large insider buying; large, 30% short int.; large, 17.4% yield)
CLP (low RS, but enormous insider buying in Dec; 8.6% short int; 8.3% yield)
CBL (low RS; heavy insider buying; 8.7% yield; 7% short int)