Dry Powder Long-List

The market surged following the Fed's aggressive 50-50 cut and corresponding 'dovish' statement, only to thwack lower in the final hour. The S&P 500 had reversed up 1.7% following the FOMC announcement, but it re-reversed and closed negative by 0.6%; and kept right on going in the after-hours session.

I took a hit, but I pushed-out a fair percentage of my position and I have plenty of dry powder at the moment. Now that I've had several hours to rest and recover, I'm compiling a freshened list of longs to refer to for fresh attacks, assuming we're not deteriorating dramatically.

In the larger picture, only lower-lows in this market will cause me to back off from a long-only bias, as the fundamental picture for so many industry groups is solidly positive now and for the foreseeable future. I'm forced to keep cautious until the technicals improve (I still need a confirmation follow-though day, whereby the market rallies at least 1.5% on rising volume, to get aggressive). But in the meantime I'm willing to attempt selective entries, depending.

Dry Powder Long-List for Thursday/Friday stemming from leading or rising industry groups:

Retail-Apparel/Shoes:
COH
NKE
LULU (14.7% short int. managmnt owns 42% of shares)
SMRT (6.5% short int; guided lower on 10th and then Chairman bot >$1m stock following)
DBRN (12.5% shorts; they guided lower on Jan 10th and insiders bot heavy on 17-18th)
CHS (8.7% short int; heavy insider buys)
CBK (13% short int; multiple recent month insider buys, though not heavy)
CHRS (14% short int; heavy insider buying)
CACH (8.75% shorts; multiple recent, decent insider buys)
HOTT
URBN
ANF
ROST
AEO
CHIC

Retail-Home/Dept/Restaurant:
BBBY
WMT
COST
SBUX (need reversal higher on earnings/thursday)
PFCB (heavy insider buying in November + 37% short int.))




Finance-Investment Bankers:
FCSX
GS
BSC
MER
KBW

Banks:
USB
NTRS
JPM
Insurance:
AFSI
AFL

Transportation-Trans Svcs:
EXPD
PACR
FDX
CSX
KSU
NSC
BNI
RAIL

Steel:
SID
MTL
STLD
TX

AG/FERTILIZER:
LNN
SYT
TITN
CVI (Management holds 74%)
TRA
TNH
DAR
MOS

Homebuilder:
NVR (strong relative strength; 28% short int.; Chairman bot >$50M! in stock early Nov; reported earnings on Tuesday, before the open; reversed higher).


Finance/REITS:
The Financial REIT group jumped from 107 to 65 of 197 ranked industry groups, IBD.
1. Note that the group was already up to 107 before last week (it was ranked 161 3-mo's ago)
2. There has been consistent and massive insider buying in these stocks (began around Nov., grew in Dec. and still larger in Jan.)
3. These stocks have large short interest (interesting combination, large shorts vs. large insider buys)
4. These stocks had been basing/consolidating for some time, then held their lows in the recent panic.

HME (decent insider buy Nov07; 15% short int; yield 5.4%; decent relative strength (RS))
CDR (multiple insider buys; 8.5% yield; 8% short int.; ex-divd date 2-6-08)
CUZ ($1M inside buy by Cousins himself; 11.6% short int; 6.3% yield; did trade lower-low)
ALX (enormous insider buying, no divd, 3.5% short int; did briefly trade to lower-low)
CLP (low RS, but enormous insider buying in Dec; 8.6% short int; 8.3% yield)
CBL (low RS; heavy insider buying; 8.7% yield; 7% short int)