Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Close(d)

Ugly last hour today as the market indices knifed to lower-lows.

Any positive back-and-fill stabilizing pattern we were building was wiped-out and momentum reassured itself as down. The late-day catalyst of AT&T breaking down on econ. slow-down concerns is also a weak catalyst really, but it produced a large bite; a negative (news never matters as much as the reaction to news).

I reduced exposure considerably today, but not totally. I let go of all ONXX, HOLX, LNN, AIR and I trimmed further on TNH (FWLT was unloaded earlier).

I remain positive on HOLX and ONXX, but I prefer to buy them turning back-up (from here, or from lower or from higher - just turning up please) and I am forced now to sell the names making lower lows (due to the market direction/momentum). LNN is also still playable, but could easily knife lower for a day or too from this level. AIR may or may not bounce from here, but that one is now off my eligible list as it is essentially broken (let someone else make the money there).

Names like GENZ and SYT are giving no reason to sell (GENZ upped EPS and revenue guidance today and stayed up on major volume - basically a hero-stock right now). CVI and OII also are giving no reason to sell at moment.

Additionally I held the JASO and in fact I added small positions in YGE and CSIQ late in the session. The solar group was fading this new surge lower; which follows a very healthy flush in the group yesterday; the question is whether they have to endure more market damage. If not, I can't see much in the way of sellers here - they will rally strongly in a firmer market. All of these are small-ish-sized positions (until the complexion in the market improves) and I will sell or hedge this group if reasons develop.

Current Portfolio (by size): GENZ, OII, CVI, JASO, SYT, YGE, CAF, TNH, CSIQ

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