Wednesday, January 02, 2008

First Grind

My 'opposite-day' scheme was tipped a little in the wrong direction by two untimely analyst calls. AMZN was upgraded and SBUX was downgraded; both by major firms.

I actually blew-out the AMZN trade for a quick, small loss in the pre-session (94.50); since the market was not trading lower. I have held onto the SBUX so far, for the same reason. So far it is acting pretty poorly; I'll be keeping a short leash there.

The solar group is still (mostly) hot so far today, especially the smaller names. I was nervous being short FSLR seeing AKNS up a million % on the pre-mkt tape - and all of the group was getting some activity; all higher. The fact that FSLR is hardly handing me my own head now (it is reversing down early in the regular session at moment), makes me think I may be fine on this plan. This chart looks quite ripe for profit-taking. I may hold out short here until we get the first real slice down; unless the market gets hot again first.

I'm looking for other '07 winners now, where a slice-down looks imminent. In FSLR, or any of the others I might take on, I will cover and take profits on the first significant slice-down. And I won't hold any which insist on continuing to trend higher.

I don't have any serious scenarios for the overall market at the moment. I didn't like the market's action last week, especially the inability to the fade the events in Pakistan, the geopolitical implications and new uncertainties, etc. I may keep things relatively simple for the time being.

OK, I just added 50% to my FSLR short (ave. 266.40; my overall position ave. now is 268.25). The market action is overall sluggish or weak and I am hunting more '07 winners which look like a slice-down might be imminent (did I say that already?). I'm going to keep net-short for the moment (biotechs aside).

[Edit: I went short WFR (ave. 88.78); another extended '07 winner which looks ripe for profit taking. The market is weakening further now and Semi's are acting the worst today].

[Edit: Market worsening still; Naz flirting with breaking the 200-day m.a and GOOG is a few points below the key 50-day m.a., on rising volume. I remain net-short, not counting the ONXX and GENZ (long bio's), but I did add FWLT long (ave. 157.18)- which just cannot sell-off here and remains higher on heavy volume].

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