Friday, January 04, 2008


It's no Sweet Virginia out there just yet, but I'm getting the first tangs of that snuggly feeling. If we don't pull-up out of this late today, I think it will be Monday. Too many strong stocks are sustaining too strong a relative-strength on the tape. Also, breadth is narrowing (not increasing) and is not at any serious Black-Monday-coming ratio. Sentiment is another positive.

I'm not letting go of this (partial) hedge just yet, but I am pulling in more stock; aggressive growth longs naturally. Some of these won't go down, some are backing down to breakout levels (support) and one is reversing back above the 200-day m.a. Therefore they all have reasonably easy benchmarks for stop-loss (aside from the HOLX - which requires a little deeper drop to know you've done the wrong thing).

I have bot first tranches of LNN (ave. 67.55), AIR (ave. 35.68), BCSI (29.96) and HOLX (ave. 71.58). I'll explain a little about each of these in an edit soon. I expect I will unload something by the end of the day, if not the hedge. At this writing the MICC is the least pleasing situation I have running. I'm reasonably pleased with the action everywhere else in my position.

LNN sells automated agricultural irrigation systems that enhance or stabilize crop production (say no more). This one broke out a couple of weeks ago on major volume and is pulling back to a potential first entry level on light volume.

AIR is in the aviation/aerospace services industry and broke out of the 35-area a couple weeks ago; is now pulling back to that breakout/entry level, on lighter volume.

HOLX is a familiar name here and is bucking the tape; threatening to breakout as soon as the pressure is off. This looks like the classic bar of soap being held under the water. Let go and it vaults higher.

BCSI develops secure web gateways, is a former glory name which is trying to re-reverse/recapture its long-term 200-day m.a. (currently 29.91). It may fail at this (at this writing, things are pressuring further in the mkt and this name is under my bench), but I would call this name a buy for most of remaining January above that 29.90 level. There is a decent short interest in the stock (>11%), so I wouldn't hold it under that key average and I wouldn't be near it approaching earnings, due to release sometime in February. I will sell this today if it closes <29.45 or so, depending on whether or not the market shows any life last hour.]

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