Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Here Comes the Flush

INTC earnings have flooded the sell-gates in the after-market. Anything and everything tech is getting flayed at moment.

Both the NDX and the S&P 500 will almost certainly test their august lows tomorrow; this will be an important session. If we flush and reverse or flush and at least hold above those August 16th lows by the end of the day, we will have a technical bottom on the heels of reasonable capitulation (trading bottom at least, but likely more than that in my opinion).

If we break the lows, only to break further later in the session, then we merely have a broken market (nothing for me then in the near term - back to nature)

Time of Day is going to be crucial for decision making tomorrow (at least for this trader). I detailed several things I look for to speculate on a potential capitulation/reversal within a damaged tape, prior to the almost-flush session of the 9th (scroll down on that link).

The results will define the opportunity. I'm expecting/hoping non-tech areas of the market put in their lows at the open and catch a bid from there; I have no tech at present.

Late trades today:

I finished the buy of FCSX at the close today (50.60).

I was shaken out of MR (ave. 38.50).

I sold the remaining SYT late (ave. 53.77). Still in LNN, CVI and TITN; fortunately I unloaded TNH on the move yesterday.

I got nervous today Ag could get nailed pretty good here; in similar fashion to the recent drubbing in the Solar group. I'm going to be careful putting new money into Ag short term.

Solar, however, is a group I will buy aggressively later tomorrow if the market survives and that group is of the first to turn higher. Those are a couple of big IFs, but in the case this transpires I think we'll see the biggest, tradable move there.

Medical/Bio/Etc. still appear quite firm. The medical groups dominate my Newer Breakouts and Live Set-Ups lists from over the weekend. There are a few newer names I've found since and some of those listed should now be removed, but I'm not going to spend the time tonight to bring it all up to date. I'm going into deep-freeze meditation instead, between now and tomorrow's (legendary) session.

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