Thursday, January 03, 2008

Solar Candy...and some other good stuff

If I'm understanding this market, I am really beginning to like the prospects for being long aggressive growth in January.

Overall, selling pressure is subsiding (my read, anyway) and many of the stronger sectors (basically the same leaders as in December) are starting to bolt higher.

The bottom line - January is typically a strong month for small/medium aggressive growth stocks and many of these are now breaking out to higher highs; from decent consolidation patterns. And while there are cross-currents out there (including some pockets of horror and malaise), the areas of strength are determined and becoming powerful.

I let go of all shorts in the opening 30 minutes today. I'm adding to longs and surveying for new potential plays.

Given the power in many of the biotech/drug names, I added to GENZ (ave. 75.34). I am looking to possibly add to an already heavy position in ONXX, which looks like a breakout is imminent. I say that, because look at the action in a name like TEVA; which is now on my 'get-this-bugger-soon' list. The biotech group looks live where it is live and should be a decent play for this month (where it is live - be selective).

Building and heavy-construction leader FWLT also looks like a breakout is imminent. I already have a heavy position there, having added more yesterday. This group remains strong, but the leader here is enough for me at the moment.

I added back MICC today (ave. 117.60), as it crossed back above the 10-day and the chart is simply beautiful. The telecom/wireless services group remains mostly very strong and shopping for January shells here is not a bad plan.

The Agri-groups also remain fire-hot. SYT, a new beast, makes chemicals for growing corn (yikes) and other worthless and stupid agri-stuff and is breaking higher; looking very live. This one is on my attack list.

Okay, let's move on to the Insane-Jane - Super Porno Solar Group (Energy Other - Woot!)

I added back to JASO when it was lower today (ave. 72.68). I need more. the solars remain uber-hot (which is a lot of the reason I remain bullish for January) JASO started up late yesterday when the market was still worsening (something which causes salivation glands in me to activate). Now that the market is/might be (ha!) turning, JASO is kicking back in to the upside. Butter butter butter butter - solar butter is better for Poptarts.

AKNS, mentioned yesterday, is the newest porno-long in the solar group (I never got it; quality is a little suspect for me and it is extended now). CSIQ still looks very powerful and barely pulled back on the market weakness. SOLF and ASTI also remain insanely hot (suspect quality). STP, SPWR, FSLR, ESLR and YGE remain merely...hot. I haven't mentioned this in a while, but this group reminds me of when the networking stocks were young and hot, when CSCO was a budding baby and wouldn't trend lower no matter how much pressure the market in the early 90's could throw at it. Obviously, there is going to be a lot of shuffling with these solars and some of them will eat your grand children's dowry money (go to ZERO), but the industry-group as a whole has arrived and it is the real deal.

We'll be eating out of solar toasters and driving solar hot dog carts, surfing solar chuck wagons and driving Miss Daisy solar Continentals soon enough...judging by the money flow into this stuff this last 12 months now.

Solar is a beast. I've got solar girdle panels on order from Solar Macy's. Solar candy from Barton's, WWF solar dolls off of Ebay. This group is apparently going to soak up all the market hot-money this month, so it's apparently solar suicide for the shorts.

HOKU, which has some technology I don't understand (somehow related to the solar group), is breaking out. This name has an enormous short position (~25%), so I'm likely passing there. The shorts tend to do their homework and I tend to avoid being long any big short-interest stocks. The chart here is interesting though.

Ok, I just added back my YGE position at 38.75. This one is doing pretty strong volume today and is beginning to resolve higher. We'll see if it can't go mid evil on the tape here.

Current Position (all long and according to size) [ONXX, FWLT, MICC, GENZ, C, COH, JASO, YGE, SBUX, CAF] ...note, C, SBUX and COH are the losers-for-wk-1 play. Will be gone soon enough and sooner if the market is not firming here.

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