Friday, April 03, 2009
Bearing the Pain
Bears are feeling it still. I don't want to be a bear as long as it looks like this.
Like it or not, the market is behaving well today; notably resilient on the heels of this week's blast-up.
I reduced yesterday's (new) shorts as a result, and while some of the exit points were poor relative to the day's range, these were presumed hedges; when they were closer to profitable I was holding out of necessity but ultimately unloaded when it was clear they couldn't hold their own water.
Accounts here are still positive today (so far) and this is because the leadership longs are making up for negative recent short trades.
That and a nice entry into DIOD long in the opening minutes.
These blaring-ugly trades can be laughed at via the Twittfit on the right >>> Notice how long my losses are held, relative to gainers. Even if I'm full-out pathetic with fresh-fires, I'm rarely ruined because I keep my broken clocks telling the right time and throw out anything worse.
If I brush aside everything I might think and simplify matters, the simple truth is that 1.) the market is consolidating softly and quietly, which is constructive action; while 2.) Bellwether GS has so far managed to re-take its 200-day moving average today (>115.27); and 3.) when I put on shorts it feels a lot like a pitchfork in my skull, while my long positions have been basically printing money.
That last part is relevant to me and I weight that that highly when analyzing protection, aggression and whether I'll be buying a last-minute plane deal to Boca Bora this weekend; get out to the water for alternative thrills and kills.
I'll be hunting more live longs by scouring the charts this weekend (from whatever location I find myself). The market still behaves like a bull at moment and I'll continue to treat it that way until the bears finally turn this fork around.
Last weekend's list of leadership longs can be viewed here in the meantime.
Total Position: 3.42-to-1 net long, 73% invested
Currently Long (according to size): RJI, PMCS, WNR, NFLX, ARST, CHKP, LFT, MYGN, MNRO, TSYS, DIOD, DRI, IOC
Currently Short (according to size): NTRS, RSH, ELOS, EGO