Short Swoons (and mere flesh wounds)

The pivot set-up from yesterday did indeed follow-through and bears are left biting this market to death; given their legs now have been lanced. This then sets-up short-side entry# 516 for this rally; I'm reading.

Still, I'll skip the latest ribbon cutting ceremony and catch-up with the bears later, on the way down. In the meantime I would have preferred having greater exposure long; but a fool cannot have everything if he is at least lucky - no complaints here.

I am on the move today and now maybe tomorrow as well. This is a lot of why I am lightly exposed, but I won't give that as an excuse (my excuse remains that the action has been nothing more than murky in the larger scheme of things; certainly ahead of today). If I could re-post yesterday's words, I think it will still count for the present situation. The market is a bit higher, the internals a bit stronger and the bear beer a bit flatter.

All bear chidings aside, I doubt we're on the verge of any tremendous upside in the markets just here, but I still see no reason to attack short with any size until something gets going in that direction.

You black knights still have guts, I'll give you that; it's the arms and legs which might be concerning.

STRA remains my one short at moment and reports before the open tomorrow. I may sweat this, given the continued drop in RS for that industry group, but I'll re-consider in the final 15 minutes. Check the Twitter page in the final minutes today if you care.

Total Position: 4.13-to-1; 31% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (8%), SNDA (5.1%), TSYS (4.4%), WNR (4.2%), ARST (3.2%)

Currently Short (according to size): STRA (5.9%)

CYOU (wouldn't want to be you)

While nothing but nothing says we're in for better than muddy, mirky water still, we did see a bit of upside reversal early today, following the low-volume decline from yesterday. That draws some promise now for a pivot long; let's see how it shapes up.

I let out a little line long coming off the reversal, just in case this runs. If we re-reverse lower today, something I doubt at this writing, then it might just be exciting to get short this market after all. That would be something new - an actual downtrend of more than several hours.

So IF IF IF you guys can gain any momentum downward, I'll be coming late to the party. Right now though I see nothing but Hopeful and Mopeful over there in the corner sipping flat beer from plastic cups, grumbling about market manipulation; how certain swine should be in jail while other swine just may accelerate and take prices where they really want to go; ought to be; etc. etc. etc.

I hate that kind of party, let me know when things heat up. At moment bear balloons need further helium.

CYOU , which I have been trading decently, is live again today; knocking above it's (young) all-time high on strong, rising volume. While this IPO's base is only a couple of weeks young, it has held like a rock during each recent down-draft and now has shot to new all-time highs today in both price and relative strength (RS). CYOU reports Monday before the open. If I could design it, it would rally through to Monday morning and then see profit taking after a further gap-up at Monday's open (somewhere between 33 and 35). Either way I'm looking to reduce by the close of Friday; although I'm happy to reduce on spikes higher now and add then again on pullbacks. Currently I'm holding 8% long CYOU .

TSYS reports Thursday after the close and is set-up for a potential breakout here. Volume was perfect yesterday (strong, rising volume as it rallied to the upper end of a very nice, 10-wk base), but there is not yet a new high in RS (ideal is to see a NH in RS ahead of a breakout) and today is not yet on pace to top yesterday in terms of volume. The pivot for breakout here is 10.19. I'll be looking to increase my position above that level (currently long 3.2%).

I decided against travel today. I remain lightly invested overall and I may still travel tomorrow; which would put me out of commission for most of the day, depending.

Total Position: 3.15-to-1; 25% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (8%), WNR (4.2%), ARST (3.3%), TSYS (3.2%)

Currently Short (according to size): STRA (5.9%)

Carry out the Shorts

While further upside for Monday is far from out of the question, the bang-up session came today. I'm trimming slowly and steadily, the spoils from my ramped-up and unprotected splash aggressive-long.

In other words, stepping over the bodies of dead short people while cutting back an aggressive long stance initiated yesterday.

I'll be traveling later today, to an as of yet undisclosed but thoroughly exotic blood-lust pack-and-Carrie whirlwind spontoon-festoon underwater action adventure thunderland.

As such I'm going to keep this brief. Follow the Twittcast for anything especially relevant from here. I expect to continue trimming; I want to get down to under 3-1 net long, and am looking to short an index near the close; as a partial hedge.

At the moment the action is quieting some, but internals are severe-positive. Hence I am trying to hold out for the close before hedging; via SDS or something similar.

Bone weekend!

Total Position: 3.88-to-1 net long, 66.5% invested

Currently Long (according to size): ARST, CYOU, TSYS, BKE, MYGN, WNR, RJI, MNRO, NFLX, TNDM BBY, CHKP

Currently Short (according to size): GE, AAPL

Rearranging Deck Chairs (short here for now)

Whatever I think about the market just now doesn't mean a great deal and it is subject to change rapidly anyhow. So let's just discuss more how I am positioning and less what the bigger picture paints.

I shifted short in the pre-market again and this time it looks like I will stick with that; for now. Later in the week however is the Good Friday holiday and as such we might see some seasonal strength come in on Thursday. It is possible I will ease back long by Thursday, depending.

I'm having a good session, especially considering that I was considerably net-long when I woke up (I changed that stance abruptly, as yesterday's less than stellar attempt at a reversal was going to be gapped right out of the picture today).

Good luck seeing the same kind of recovery today.

I sold several longs early in the regular session, but I did make one bothersome mistake. I managed a terrific entry long yesterday in the aftermkt on the new ipo CYOU. I mentioned then (via Twittspit) that >22 was really a better buy, but then today I went and sold it at 22.20 early in the session (grabbing the quick profit as I was nervous about my overly-long exposure and was selling things quickly, perhaps abruptly). Since then it has managed to take out the day-1 high and with strong, rising volume. This name hails from a leading group (same group as SNDA and NTES) and one of my favorite trades is to get long an ipo when it takes out the day-1 high (getting above that level demonstrates that buying demand is greater than the profit-taking supply; from those who got in on the ipo price and then are flipping to lock in quick, handsome profits; momentum and demand are greater than anything that can stop it).

If the market is going to manage a standard pause before re-climbing higher again (too soon to say and a bit ambitious perhaps) then CYOU is the type of new leadership I will jam hard with for the remainder of its first several weeks (or until it stops leading).

I bot back the same size of CYOU at 22.92 and am wearing that one still; we'll see what happens.

Total Position: 1.1-to-1 net long, 77% invested
(Note: though the position is slightly net-long, technically it is leaning notably short due to leverage of the 2x's short-hedges TWM and SRS; TWM-weight is >15% at the moment)

Currently Long (according to size): TSYS, ARST, MNRO, NFLX, CHKP, RJI, MYGN, CYOU, DRI

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell-2k Dbl-short), GE, AAPL, VNO, SRS-long (US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Bearing the Pain

Bears are feeling it still. I don't want to be a bear as long as it looks like this.

Like it or not, the market is behaving well today; notably resilient on the heels of this week's blast-up.

I reduced yesterday's (new) shorts as a result, and while some of the exit points were poor relative to the day's range, these were presumed hedges; when they were closer to profitable I was holding out of necessity but ultimately unloaded when it was clear they couldn't hold their own water.

Accounts here are still positive today (so far) and this is because the leadership longs are making up for negative recent short trades.

That and a nice entry into DIOD long in the opening minutes.

These blaring-ugly trades can be laughed at via the Twittfit on the right >>> Notice how long my losses are held, relative to gainers. Even if I'm full-out pathetic with fresh-fires, I'm rarely ruined because I keep my broken clocks telling the right time and throw out anything worse.

If I brush aside everything I might think and simplify matters, the simple truth is that 1.) the market is consolidating softly and quietly, which is constructive action; while 2.) Bellwether GS has so far managed to re-take its 200-day moving average today (>115.27); and 3.) when I put on shorts it feels a lot like a pitchfork in my skull, while my long positions have been basically printing money.

That last part is relevant to me and I weight that that highly when analyzing protection, aggression and whether I'll be buying a last-minute plane deal to Boca Bora this weekend; get out to the water for alternative thrills and kills.

I'll be hunting more live longs by scouring the charts this weekend (from whatever location I find myself). The market still behaves like a bull at moment and I'll continue to treat it that way until the bears finally turn this fork around.

Last weekend's list of leadership longs can be viewed here in the meantime.

Total Position: 3.42-to-1 net long, 73% invested

Currently Long (according to size): RJI, PMCS, WNR, NFLX, ARST, CHKP, LFT, MYGN, MNRO, TSYS, DIOD, DRI, IOC

Currently Short (according to size): NTRS, RSH, ELOS, EGO

Strike That (re-illuminate long)

What doesn't kill you only makes you stronger, right?

Bears can't be happy.

The market did gap-lower but demand has since Mobbed sellers. As the major's cannot break down, then we should either chop sideways or else revert higher. I prefer chopping, whereby leadership stocks work quietly higher under an otherwise quiet surface. But if she wants to burn it up instead I won't get nasty (though I will let some of the air out on any emotional blast higher.

I backed-off from (brief) hedging and am back to fully-bloated long (aggressive growth leadership). For the moment I still have half of the JPM short (from yesterday's close), but it is now paired with GS long. Other than that I have RSH and a small amount of EGO short (the latter is no hedge, just a Cramer double-promo fade; hopefully for the ages).

My FMER Cramer-fade from last night was a scalp in the end. I took profits as soon as it was clear the world wasn't going to end again. I still love you though Cramer. And thanks for the tips on buying CELG (for the last few months!). I'm sorry I didn't take that one seriously.

That's the dope on my shorts. But it is the (many) longs that are far more interesting; to this fish at least. I know these names don't appeal to you, that's Okay. I'm just going to sit here quietly and make some money while you guys find better things to do. I've got enough over-roasted coffee to last all week. I can piss in canteens if need be and I just peel-off whale jerky on an as-needed basis.

Yep, the action should get quiet now methinks. I'm thinking nap-time in fact.

The sweat shop then may closed for me today - I'm in monitor mode. I'll spitTwitt changes from here out, but again don't do anything I do (at least not because of anything I have said). Watch a mad-trader blow-up with too many longs for fun and informational porpoises only.

I'm a bloody mutual fund here at the moment. Good trading.

Total Position: 7.85-to-1 net long, 96% invested

Currently Long (according to size): MYGN, NFLX, ARST, RJI, PMCS, MNRO, WNR, SNDA, LFT, NVLS, CHKP, GS, FORM (new), TNDM, TSYS, DRI, IOC

Currently Short (according to size): RSH, JPM, EGO

Copyright LLBAG, 2009 - Locked Loaded and Bloated Aggressive Growth Fund, LTD

Quicknote (slight darkward shift)

I shifted away from my aggressive-long stance and into the general direction of neutral, ahead of the final trading hour and increasingly so into today's negative close.

Gone for now are GS and TSYS longs. New shorts included a healthy degree of JPM (7%), RSH (4.6%) and...

After the close I was able to grab another financial short, new Cramer-promo FMER (5% position); complete with a 4% premium to the closing price.

Praise be Cramer.

Futures are selling some tonight, as GM is apparently going goose eggs. Tomorrow will be interesting. I have a little protection now - if the market can't regain any strength within the first 90 minutes I'm returning to the dark side. Otherwise I'm content to let go of the new hedges and roll long with the in-crowd yet some more.

Worst case for me, financials rock higher while growth names get nailed early. That would start my new quarter off wrong.

Pimp my Twitt for all the finer details >>>

Total Position: 4-to-1 net long, 93% invested

Currently Long (according to size): MYGN, NFLX, ARST, RJI, MNRO, PMCS, WNR, SNDA, CHKP, NVLS, LFT, TNDM, DRI, IOC

Currently Short (according to size): JPM, FMER, RSH, EGO

Warm Plunge?

Signals are mixed today.

The market internals are dreadful, with 88% of NYSE stocks and 81% of Nasdaq stocks so far declining on the session. The major indices are trading more than 3% lower, led by the NYSE; down closer to 4%.

At the same time though, leadership growth stocks are notably resisting pressure; in fact many of the leadership names have reversed higher today, in spite of the ugly tape.

I increased hedges early, scaling into a large percentage of TWM; which positioned my accounts net-short for the day (accounting for TWM and SRS leverage). At the same time I began covering individual shorts on the weakness, letting go of RSH and ELOS and reducing EGO; and soon began adding new leadership long (NFLX, TNDM and DRI so far).

In other words, I am presently hedged, but when the hedges come off I am suddenly going to be aggressively, almost fully long. This might run counter to the idea that I would sell sell and sell on a break-down in the indices, but frankly I am seeing too much continued strength in the leadership and the sell-off today has only further illuminated this reality.

If they cannot sell on a day like today, they are going to jam higher once pressure subsides. I don't have any comment on when pressure will subside, but with breadth this severely negative I would argue the odds of a reversal for the overall market today is significantly low. And don't do anything I am doing, but I am confident that leadership is going to higher-highs in the not-distant future.

So much for my Friday rant...I guess buying a further pullback may not be jumping in front of an eager bear after all. We'll see.

Currently Long (according to size): MYGN, ARST, NFLX, RJI, TSYS, PMCS, MNRO, WNR, SNDA, IOC, LFT, TNDM, DRI

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell-2k Dbl-short), SRS-long (US Real Est. Dbl-short), AXA, EGO
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Root Ripping Action (tape remains positive)

Today is perfect. Perfect and boring.

Perfect because the internals are clearly positive (again), my portfolio is flying, and yet the majors are only quietly higher. Having had my share of sharp sticks in the eyes, I can attest - this is better.

Obviously we see the market action only as it refers to our current position, right? If I were positioned short I should see today's action as ridiculous, unfounded and bound to fail any bar now, yes?

I say this because I know how easy it is to be subjective, to see every chart and move in the light which best justifies our (losing!) position. Bears know what I'm talking about.

Naturally, this defines me as some smug bull barker who is talking out of his ass and is going to have a new one torn very very soon and the only reason it hasn't happened yet is that I was saved again yesterday by the Plunge Protection Team (PPT), etc. etc.

Truth is, I'm never really bullish. I can say that with honesty, since I trained myself for years to hate all stocks. It's true - I hate them all. If I ever find myself getting sweet on a name, I immediately kick it out of the portfolio; not kidding.

In fact, I despise this entire game. If I could make a living, I'd rather have root canal! As it is I'll never have root canal because I hate dentists also - those shinny-toothed, silver-haired rats, gassed-up and rummaging inside endless rotten mouths with all that new dental technology. God I hate the dentists - let someone else have proper teeth.

Okay, I was lying to you just then about dentists. Those creeps are really nice beneath that graying skin, I am sure. But stocks I hate - long or short.

Don't fall in love with your position and/or outlook, my friend. That is the message.

Some note on my (dreaded) position: MYGN gapped-up on a 2-1 stock split. I sold at the open and bot back closer to the breakout pivot. I am happy to continue with this name above that pivot of 44.20; SNDA gave me a re-entry long as it was downgraded by a small firm. I'm re-building this one (sold yesterday), beginning at the 10-day and scaling-in higher (still small, 3.4% at this writing. Note, I scale-in higher, not lower); TSYS is attempting to breakout and I reloaded that one again long. This one a bit thin, but today's volume is running > 2x's normal and rising from yesterday's rising vol. I will not hold this at the close if below the 9.93 pivot; ARST, which I loathe to hold already is attempting a breakout. I would be initiating long here, but I have already a 7.7% position and may not increase, depending; RSH, which I re-entered short yesterday is ramming higher on the heels of BBY's blast-up. I'm holding in so far, content to use the 50-day MA as a bench on closing basis (currently 10.02). If it's to close slightly above that level, but volume remains low and not rising > yesterday, I will take it overnight anyway; Oh yeah, I was able to finish Cramer fade EGO, short in the premkt >9.60 ave. Scroll to previous post for full monty on someone i love - JC.

Refer to the Twitt-trough for keeping up with my hated trades. Good luck out there.

Total Position: currently 3.14-to-1 net long, (86.5% invested)

Currently Long (according to size): RJI, MYGN, ARST, GS, TSYS, PMCS, WNR, MNRO, IOC, SNDA

Currently Short (according to size): AXA, RSH, EGO, ELOS