Bellow Mellow (underwater basket weaving)

Still I refuse to post my thoughts concerning this pullback. But I remain sweet on Trish.

Her highest octave this morning was coincident with the highest prices on the day - imagine that:

"The market is off to the races today with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 44 points!"

44 points is a full half-percent. As I write this, we're down however...a full half-percent.

I know I'm stretching here, but I promised yesterday to show some value (Trish-value). It's a relatively quiet option-expiration session thus far. Trish was never likely to hit a home-run today. She did her standard best. I calculate CNBC and I are roughly even then on the day; some modest compensation received in exchange for having to listen to this barb.

Something's got to pay.

Regarding the current position here, while I did shift away from an aggressive short stance (late Wednesday/early Thursday), I've yet to really cover that side of my position (I had added leadership longs for balance and have not yet covered much in the way of shorts; the reason I am up to 76% invested).

These pivot longs are continuing to work thus far and fortunately for me are out-performing my shorts (in terms of percentage gained), so I have not yet been hit on this mkt-bounce higher (even though I've remained more short than long (and long-winded, sorry)).

If we deteriorate much further the second half today, I will look to lighten the weaker longs to prepare for Monday. Monday's following Op-ex tend towards dreadful when/if the Friday expiration goes poorly.

What's got to pay?

It's Friday my reader friend. I can't leave before the close, since I'm babysitting this tidy group below. But ring that bell in a few hours and I am out the door, ready to roil!

36 hours of spearing, searing, pelting and svelting.

Bone weekend!

Total Position: 1.42-to-1 net short (plays 1.85-to-1 net short considering leverage), 76% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (6.3%), SNDA (5.9%), WNR (5.1%), NFLX (4.1%), PMCS (3.7%), DRI (3.7%)

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (10.8%; Russell2k Dbl-short), AAPL (7.6%), USB (6.4%), STRA (5.1%), AIPC (4.5%), PZZA (4%), BKE (3.4%), SRS-long (3.3%; US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts: Covered SPX Jun Wednesday 880.75, from 912.75; Remain short 40% Jun Euro FX, from 1.3585

CNBCeethe (value of the anti-genius)

I most certainly still, do not wish to post my thoughts on this pullback.

Days like today are a little funny for me. Not funny ha-ha, but funny strange.

On the one hand, I am forced to neutralize my position some (I cannot keep aggressively short as the market begins to firm). On the other hand though, I want to fire wicked-short, almost out of spite. Thus my actions contradict my desires. The stuff piss and vinegar is made of.

Someone has to pay.

First, in terms of positioning, outlook and the general reason some of you follow this blurb - I have shifted more towards neutral and will continue shifting as long as the market continues firming. The tactic so far has been to add leadership longs, at what may turn out to be decent pivot-entries (so far so good, though not entirely perfect). Late yesterday I did unload short SP500 futures and I did hot-dog out and back into SRS today, saving almost 4% of the decline in that play. But otherwise I have so far held onto shorts (mainly because they are so far working and if we stall-out again soon, they'll continue to work further).

As a consequence of all this, my total size is now greater than 70% (am I boring you yet?), but I am leaning less than 2-1 net short (down from nearly 5-1 net short at one point yesterday, including leveraged 2x's etf's).

New longs include: SNDA, PMCS, NFLX, PEET and addt'l CYOU.
New shorts include BKE and AIPC
Follow my Twittspit for details and further actions.

Back to the spite...

Since I cannot say much more about the market, I may as well preach. Value, my friends, is everywhere. You don't know this, because you don't know how to look for it. For example, I listen incessantly to CNBC. This has been true for years. And Years. This has contributed to a constitution of ever-increasing bile, surging slowly and steadily over too many decades. This is delicate. Unless steam is carefully and dutifully released I am in grave danger of blowing massive harry's. A projectile of bezoared chunks and punching of liquid crystal displays; whereby TV-heads with toxic eloquence finally, ultimately, send me beyond the gilded edge.

Think I'm kidding?

Seriously, imagine the stress of trading markets for a living. Then imagine listening to these numb-yuks while going about your day - every day! You might ask why do it? I know my family is curious. It's a decent question, surely.

I do it for value. There is so much value (in all the wrong places), that I'd be a fool (translation: a sane man) to dismiss it. I'm not going to trade like this and give up that edge. The edge of the anti-genius.

I've spoken of Cramer, so let's leave him out of this one. That value is simple to understand (Cramer gooses stocks higher, giving a temporary, artificial boost and thus an edge by going the other way). But there is better value. And if you have read this far then I suppose I'll let you in on it. However (I caught you moving to the edge of your seat, ha!), since I don't have all day to ramble for bleeding ever, all for your benefit (not true, since I admitted already I need to valve-off some of this bile) I am merely going to paste my IM's with my East Coast contingent from earlier today. This gets across the value I'm teasing you so far about (although in the end it is still a tease, since there is there is no specific gem for today. I will follow-up though, hopefully tomorrow, or at least as soon as it shines next. Did that make sense? I'm telling you about the gems that come forth, but there is no new gem currently beheld - stay tuned)

[exoquarx is me and Eastcrow's name has been modified; to protect the innocent]...

(exoquarx): turn up cnbc. you hear that voice?
(Eastcrow): got it. sell your house short? who is that guy larry?
[Larry Kudlow]
(exoquarx): dont ask
(exoquarx): reagan administration
(exoquarx): gin soaked
(exoquarx): that's not the voice i mean
(exoquarx): this other guy here is the gov'ts patsy (steve leisman)
(exoquarx): the 2nd head from L is actually smart. ignore her.
(exoquarx): Leisman is like a harvard football jock
(exoquarx): but couldnt get into harvard
(exoquarx): they call him their chief economist - which means chief hack.
(Eastcrow): that laugh from larry is something else - new high euro
(exoquarx): ok, bought another restaurant after all. that group leading the day tho
(exoquarx): there she is again - hear that voice?
(Eastcrow): y. i like cpki
(exoquarx): yuk
(Eastcrow): pinapple pizza? Invented in calif
(exoquarx): PZZA going 2b a short soon as well
(exoquarx): you hear the woman asking questions now?
[Trish Reagan]
(Eastcrow): y
(exoquarx): cnbc always has one of these (almost always)
(exoquarx): a tv personality who is now reporting on the mkts
(Eastcrow): oh actualy cpki not looking so good now...
(exoquarx): garbage stock
(Eastcrow): garbage pizza
(exoquarx): ANYtime you hear this woman actually reveal an opinion about the mkt ...
(exoquarx): go the other way
(exoquarx): it's magic
(exoquarx): guy talking now, you mentioned, has studied mkts his whole life
[Larry Kudlow]
(exoquarx): and drunk a lot of gin
(exoquarx): dismiss him
(Eastcrow): really? she like a cramer short?
(exoquarx): no. more magical than cramer short
(exoquarx): cramer moves the stock and that gives you the edge
(exoquarx): this idiot has no clue and when she 'gets-it' and spouts an opinion (or starts shrieking about how amazing something is) get ready for the other direction
(exoquarx): this is religion, spiritual, magic
(exoquarx): unbelievable and totally accurate, in reverse
(exoquarx): when the tv-types who know NOTHING reveal an opinion about the mkt
(exoquarx): you can look for setups the other direction
(exoquarx): this plays on the idea that once everyone has figured it out the move is over
(exoquarx): similar to when the mkt makes cover of Time/Newsweek; move is over
(exoquarx): or at least ready to counter
(Eastcrow): u see the uber bear? Dow to 1000 guy?
(exoquarx): wasnt listening to him, ...the guy just now? missed it
(exoquarx): but my ear is tuned to her, believe me
(Eastcrow): he predicted that the dow was going to 1000
(exoquarx): wow, that's my prediction. back to early 80's; 25 yrs of support there
(exoquarx): what is the driver, he say?
(exoquarx): nuclear?
(exoquarx): he needs nuclear
(exoquarx): big ugly war
(exoquarx): no more people
(exoquarx): doubt he said that tho
(exoquarx): the guys who know something are less useful really
(exoquarx): not that this guy knows anything. i dont know him
(exoquarx): if they are really smart , then i listen
(exoquarx): there's a few
(exoquarx): thank god
(exoquarx): otherwise i'm more interested in the anti-genius
(exoquarx): especially when they get inspired
(exoquarx): this one is beyond annoying
[Trish Reagan again]
(exoquarx): and knows nothing
(exoquarx): more nothing than you think is possible
(exoquarx): anti genius
(exoquarx): those are the people to follow
(exoquarx): this is why i am so angry
(exoquarx): i listen to these people all day for year after year
(exoquarx): makes you want to bite a german shepard
(exoquarx): just to get the stress out
(exoquarx): she's a peach
(exoquarx): there was a women 10 and 15 yrs ago
(exoquarx): wow
(exoquarx): the best ever [Cannot remember her name]
(exoquarx): i could tell by her octave how to trade the mkt
(exoquarx): kind of like when SRS was at the high today
(exoquarx): her octave might go up
(exoquarx): she would drone, drone drone all day
(exoquarx): every day
(exoquarx): but when she began to shriek...
(exoquarx): it was a perfect trade the other way
(exoquarx): i found god
(exoquarx): that's kudlow again.
(exoquarx): gin gin gin
(exoquarx): gulp gulp gulp
(exoquarx): dismiss him
(exoquarx): no value
(Eastcrow): funny women on this show. are you talking about the one with the white blouse (br hair) not the blond in yellow?
(exoquarx): the one with the triangle for a nose
(exoquarx): not the blond
(exoquarx): i ignore her
(exoquarx): not smart enough /not dumb enough
(exoquarx): i mean the one who makes you think low of humanity when she starts squeaking
(exoquarx): i dont know what she's wearing
(exoquarx): i only have sound on
(exoquarx): can't take the pictures
(Eastcrow): lets see if she comes back. now is "power lunch" what ever that is
(Eastcrow): glup glup glup
(exoquarx): power lunch is good-morning america
(exoquarx): waste of time
(exoquarx): only reason to listen is in case news breaks
(exoquarx): otherwise a complete waste
(exoquarx): turn on channel 4 instead
(exoquarx): same shit
(exoquarx): coffee mugs should be in hand
(exoquarx): i want to punch them all
(exoquarx): cant even trade off them
(exoquarx): no value
(exoquarx): SNDA coming on now
...
(exoquarx): there she is
(exoquarx): big value
(exoquarx): triangle nose
(exoquarx): DGI is priced. not really trading tho
(exoquarx): priced 19. we couldnt get any shares - sucks
(Eastcrow): oh there is the one with the nose. to the right?
(exoquarx): dunno
(exoquarx): but i heard her just then
(exoquarx): coffee mug time
(exoquarx): zzzzzzzzz
(Eastcrow): well now I know why you are so screwed up - watching that show for so long.
(exoquarx): here...
(exoquarx): http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Video/080712/nn_regan_xtalk_080712.300w.jpg
(exoquarx): miss piggy
(exoquarx): trish regan
(exoquarx): nice name - trish
(exoquarx): pretty much useless today. no inspired gems
(exoquarx): see if she figures anything out tomorrow
[god willing]

Snort!

Churn while you Earn (scaling further short)

The glass is evolving half-empty at the moment with waters inside churning.

While yesterday it was the NDX flashing distributive action, today it is the NDX and pretty much everything else (sans Medicals). Volume is rising and heavy again today, the pace of which is extreme.

Combine this with today's ugly gap-up and reversal (again, the NDX ugliest in that regard), and you have a genuine toppy, churning tape which in my world suggests some kind of top.

Cute churning action.

I say some kind because I don't know (and I don't pretend to know) whether this is simply a mild pullback before resuming upward again, the beginning of an intermediate-term trend lower, or the latest, greatest decline-to-define-all-declines for futureless generations to come.

Leadership growth charts are looking poor at the moment (some breaking down, many others getting choppy), but nothing too dramatic at this point.

Elements so far then command a bit of respect, perhaps nothing more. I'll continue to let out more short as this develops (thus positioning myself as one dirty, short-bastard by the time blood is seriously flowing, or else keep overall-small; nibbling on dumpster-fare should the downside lack lethal dejection.

Sad story - I tried shorting a couple of Solars gapping 8 and 10% higher (they are 8 and 10% down now on the day; nice swing), but could not get shares borrowed. At-the-money option premiums were too high to go that route, so I've got nothing short in Solar.

I intentionally waited to short the Financials. But GS now, unless it recovers to 36.05 by the close, is set to mark a key-reversal (gapping to a higher-high and then closing at a lower-low); volume is rising there as well. I got GS off short, but it is MS that is perhaps more exciting, since that beast couldn't really rally lately and has lower relative strength. I'm working orders to short MS (>27.70 at moment), but may not manage to get it today; if not, I'll take the first reasonable set-up, regardless of price.

That's it. I don't want to jinx the pullback for you guys by blowing sexy conch calls about colliding wave counts, imploding stars and bloody-green clovers. I suspect tired bears will be reluctant-but-happy to exit quickly now that they see losses finally improving. That's the bitch about being so early - nothing left in the lust tank to take advantage of one's previous dreams, once they start to gel.

Did that make any sense? I'll just try to keep 1-small step behind the market action and let you guys make the smart calls - how's that? Stupid-lucky showing up late to all the finer parties.

Snort.

Total Position: 2.42-to-1 net short, 27% invested

Currently Long (according to size): WNR (4%), CYOU (new, 3.8% - benching on 10-day m.a., post-2pm basis

Currently Short (according to size): AAPL (8%), GS (6.1%), STRA (4.9%)

Futures Accounts: Covered NDX June (unfortunately) at 1405.75 for small profit; looking to re-enter; blew-out on the slice lower today as breadth was then 2-1 positive, but internals have worsened sufficiently since.

Cute churning action.

Buy Polar (scaling into short)

Given that bears are dead (or slightly underwater as some suggest - ha!) I only need to see subtle signs of a top to begin firing short. Risk/reward is favorable, since getting stopped-out at higher highs represents a small-enough loss, while if it is the beginning of an intermediate-term top the potential profit looms considerably larger.

Today is not perfect, but there are enough signs for this trader to scale into shorting:

-Volume has been heavy today and Tuesday without further advance (distribution)
-The NDX led a downward reversal today (NDX is a leading index)
-Sentiment lately is sufficiently bullish/hopeful (thus, sentiment is no longer a positive)
-The majority of leading industry groups today are poorly-ranked, while the clear majority of lagging groups on the day are higher-ranked (bearish tape-action).

This is not enough to pound any tables, blow bold clarion calls, or even warn the widows and orphans their dreams are re-ending. For that we need to see confirmation and momentum; this is nothing more than a potential set-up, perhaps sufficient to begin an attack and then (and only then) scale into something larger as a change in trend is confirmed and momentum takes hold.

Scale into an attack. I am small now and looking to get larger only as the price-direction justifies such action.

And don't do what I do anyway (especially as far as the futures position I'll next discuss). Smarter traders are likely out or even remain long at this point in time. Most of my readership thinks I am a very patient bear - that is because perhaps they have been attacking this beast on and off for 8 weeks now. I don't even know if I'm bearish anymore, to be honest. Nothing is going to surprise me now; in either direction.

More than ever then, I want to follow along as opposed to anticipating. I don't like the idea of thinking I know anything in this market.

I scaled into a reasonable amount of AAPL short today (8%); Apple is now lagging, following a potentially toppy, new-high reversal. At the same time I reloaded WNR long (4%); that one was breaking out of a 12-week base on today's earnings report w/ strong, rising volume; highly-ranked industry group and 96 RS-rank on its own).

I am also scaling into an NDX futures short (in futures-applicable accounts). If I am not stopped-out, I am hoping to hook at least a swing-trade here and possibly something more intermediate-term, depending. I'll convey trades via Twitter, but if you follow along you are following only yourself. I'm not giving advice. If I were, my advice would be not to take advice on futures trading. But I'm not advising that either, since in fact I am not advising anything. Go get a beer.

See? I'm already down now on shorting the NDX - you wanted to follow that? ...such a loser.

At least the WNR is making up for things.

Total Position: 1.85-to-1 net short, 12% invested

Currently Long (according to size): WNR (4.3%)

Currently Short (according to size): AAPL (8%)

Futures Accounts: Short 40% NDX June, ave = 1407.88

Short Swoons (and mere flesh wounds)

The pivot set-up from yesterday did indeed follow-through and bears are left biting this market to death; given their legs now have been lanced. This then sets-up short-side entry# 516 for this rally; I'm reading.

Still, I'll skip the latest ribbon cutting ceremony and catch-up with the bears later, on the way down. In the meantime I would have preferred having greater exposure long; but a fool cannot have everything if he is at least lucky - no complaints here.

I am on the move today and now maybe tomorrow as well. This is a lot of why I am lightly exposed, but I won't give that as an excuse (my excuse remains that the action has been nothing more than murky in the larger scheme of things; certainly ahead of today). If I could re-post yesterday's words, I think it will still count for the present situation. The market is a bit higher, the internals a bit stronger and the bear beer a bit flatter.

All bear chidings aside, I doubt we're on the verge of any tremendous upside in the markets just here, but I still see no reason to attack short with any size until something gets going in that direction.

You black knights still have guts, I'll give you that; it's the arms and legs which might be concerning.

STRA remains my one short at moment and reports before the open tomorrow. I may sweat this, given the continued drop in RS for that industry group, but I'll re-consider in the final 15 minutes. Check the Twitter page in the final minutes today if you care.

Total Position: 4.13-to-1; 31% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (8%), SNDA (5.1%), TSYS (4.4%), WNR (4.2%), ARST (3.2%)

Currently Short (according to size): STRA (5.9%)

Snarky Action (sidelined and dangerous)

The action remains murky from what I see and my position has shrunk now to the point I can mail-it-in for the time being.

My longs stopped working and consequently they are nearly entirely gone. At the same time I am not yet seeing any great set-up here to attack short.

There are a lot of smart minds getting short (again!) and I wont chide them since the long-side this week stopped being such a candy-grab - but at the same time I find everything too mixed and trendless at present. If this is the next great bear set-up then text me when the riches start pouring-in - I'll leave my dumpy dental paradise (below) and come late to the better party.

You guys can make all the money for now.

Being sidelined then, I've packed teeth and brush and I'm leaving shortly (fat-ly as well). I'm embarking on the latest, greatest luxury getaway since the extinction of the Sabertooth. This jaunt's the deeply-discounted Destiny of Doom Dreamaway. They're giving me the special AAA-approved dentist-in-training rate due to poor recent demand - ha! For 3-days and 6-nights I'm allowed to spear anything that moves - I intend to get my fool money's worth.

If I can't kill the market I've got to rip at something. You don't drink this much coffee and just go home to roost.

I'll stand by until something better sets-up.

Total Position: 1.39-to-1, 16% invested

Currently Long (according to size): WNR (4%; will not hold <12.12), CYOU (2.7%; will not hold <23.90,>26.40)

Currently Short (according to size): STRA (9.3%); under the 50-day for STRA looks good (currently 174.34); mammoth HS pattern on wkly-chart.

Off the Hook (getting smaller still)

Shorts are scrambling again today, as the pullback picture has all but evaporated for now.

I dodged a bullet with my short side, as the down-open action flashed sad-little power. I decided since I am getting smaller here I'll cover that side of things and just blow-out the longs then if the market didn't recover.

Better lucky than good, right? Stupid-lucky wins again.

I can brag now, since I am quite a bit smaller and frankly I'm not looking to grow aggressive again anytime soon. The bigger picture now is a bit murky. I'm not thrilled with the longs I have left and I'm not ambitious to short this either. I'll babysit this reduced group whilst preparing my next escape to lands well-under. Every trader needs a rest. Mine looks to be on the weigh.

Keep on the Tweatbeat over there >>> for the blow-by-blowfish history of shrinkage.

Beast out

Total Position: 5.1-to-1 net long, 40% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU, PMCS, WNR, CEO, MYGN, MNRO, FORM, OTEX, CHKP

Currently Short (according to size): STRA (6.5%); under the 50-day for STRA looks good; mammoth HS pattern.

Bear Spring

Too soon to say yet if the bear is back, but not too soon to adjust. I increased my SDS-hedge in the pre-market and added SKF after the regular session failed to find any positive traction 60 minutes in.

Internals are severely negative and while volume on the NYSE is not extreme, the Nasdaq volume rate is running historically high so far.

I'm positioned more short than long for now, but I'm willing to let go longs as it becomes necessary (which presumably increases my exposure short). Anything breaking on rising volume will go. Anything remaining is hedged for now.

If internals remain extreme AND we are not beginning to recover, I will look to short aggressively in the final 75 minutes; for a daytrade. If we do manage to recover later, I'll reduce hedges accordingly. Either way, I'll convey via Twitter.

Total Position: 1.62-1 net long, 72% invested
(Note: accounts are leaning net-short now since leverage of SDS and SKF hedges outweigh long exposure)

Currently Long (according to size): PMCS, NFLX, CEO, MYGN, RJI, WNR, MNRO, BKE, BBY, FORM, CHKP, CYOU

Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short, currently 22.1% position), SKF-long (US Financials Dbl-short, currently 5.3%)
(Note: inverse-ETFs SDS and SKF represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

North Snort (bear is good food)

Well, horseshoe up my ass.

GOOG, GE and C earnings are out of the way, the market dropped, as per bear's predictions. But the option-expiration action simmered into frozen dull drums, drifting drifting drifting until leadership names began quietly raging again on the tape. I'm lucky-still and still making money; loaded to the whale gills on aggressive growth.

However, I have begun phasing downward some; increasing the hedge and decreasing the number of longs. I can't stay too ramped-up for too long and I can't taunt you bears forever before getting bit.

That said, I will hang in net-long until the action forces otherwise (I don't have a target). I'll cut back on emotional thrusts; while culling-out dead wood; and I'm hedging according to present action and my own idiot-lucky determination of present risk (since I have too many names to dump at once, I'll increase the hedge dramatically once needed, allowing me then to let go and/or trim the lesser-performing longs soon thereafter).

I let go the Rimm-long today, as that one tagged the 200-day moving average. I would reconsider a new set-up long above that level (currently stands at 68.34, but is trending slightly downward); I entertained the idea of shorting this one up here today and benching w the 200-day on a closing basis, but it has too much momentum. I'll let you guys make the money on that trade.

GS flashed a negative divergence yesterday, so I blew out my remaining half. If it were my only child I'd hold it longer, but I have enough mealy-mouths left to keep me busy.

And as advertised I'm cutting this short. Action is positive now and that is good because I am out on the weekend already and have other distractions.

I'm deep outside, in some upper ascending triangle of resistance, somewhere North of Nanuvut. I'm skipping Disney-Finlayson Islands here, since I was up most of the night smoking wolves out of an abandoned whale-bone shelter. The wolves weren't too happy, but nor was I. Earlier I tried sleeping in the hull of the boat, ice cracking beneath sleeping bag and boat in unison. This place is too cold, even for my taste. The sky now shifts various shades of wanton pallor as the sun squibs higher.

Up here they bathe in salt water, hacksaw whale ribs in order to skewer other whales, then hefty-bag the cubes for easy Spring storage. I love this place.

Oh, BAC reports before the open Monday. No one would be too surprised to see this rally stall on that beast. I'll be back home for the action. Bears can point to that event now - an even better top for the market ;)



Total Position: 4.35-1 net long, 74% invested
(Note: SDS hedge is leveraged, accts are playing roughly 2.17-to-1 net long at moment)

Currently Long (according to size): PMCS, NFLX, ARST, OTEX, DRI, CEO, MYGN, WNR, RJI, MNRO, BKE, FORM, BBY, CYOU, CHKP

Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short, currently 13.9% position)
(Note: inverse-ETF SDS represents being dbl-short the SP500)

17 Longs (all wrong, but lucky still)

With JPM earnings now out of the way, action today was mixed early, but now reasonably positive. Leadership is humming quietly along, with technology notably strong on the tape again.

Due to the quiet rise of this pivot-rally from yesterday's early lows, I am able to hold patiently; adding here and trimming there but, without big changes. I'm a bit hedged, but remain a mutual fund - loaded with aggressive growth.

Further big drivers on the horizon: GOOG reports tonight, then Citigroup (C) and Generally Electric (GE) before the open tomorrow. Monday is Bank O'merica (BAC) earnings. Mattel (MAT) is also set to report before the open tomorrow. I would take a stab short there ahead of that number (stabbing Barbie in this case), but for the fact that so many uglies are blasting higher on bad news.

Note the fact that AMR was down yesterday morning on earnings, and then rallied only 25% in the span of 10 minutes; a rather effective assault on bears.

I know I don't want to short a tape where losers act like that; one of the reasons I am stupid-lucky and holding half the tape long at moment.

I took profits on half the GS trade, sold 123.74 in the pre-market; I'm holding the other half for now. This tranche (now 4.9%) may end up a core position, depending. I will unload when there is a clear failure, distribution, stalling or break (In either GS or in the mkt); which means if there is no reason to run I will be in this one through to higher-highs and potentially beyond; we'll see how lucky it gets, I don't have a target.

I added a new oil name long into the mix, CEO on the pullback. China seems to be the driver these days still, as so many of the groups rising in relative strength turn up Chinese stock symbols as the strongest names within those groups. Westworlder WNR is my only other oil play in the mix; been in that for some weeks now (except perhaps a day or two). IOC is one I should have held onto, but at least I sold it significantly extended (31-ish a couple of weeks ago). IOC is headquartered in Australia; it's a bit thin and it recently moved onto the NYSE; given all of that I'm ok to let someone else make the money on IOC.

I have orders to sell the RIMM-long a little below the 200-day MA. That may be a stretch for this session (200-day is 68.60 currently), but it could be reached by the after-mkt tonight, depending on GOOG. I will be open to sell within 12 cents of the mark in case we spike on the GOOG report; I'll be gone before then should the price spike that high prior.

I did manage to get back my NFLX later yesterday, and within a 15 cents of the 45.55; this too, is a would-be core position, assuming it doesn't fail in the meantime (now 5.1% sized-position). Yesterday I also reloaded OTEX-long (now 6.7%). This one does looked poised to breakout, but it is thin and now below the 1st pivot-point of 36.40 (I may have bitten-off too-much too-soon here); I will reduce if it cannot get back above 36.40 by tomorrow (sooner if it starts downward from here; below 35.70 or so).

I added to PMCS long today. This one looks poised for a fresh breakout (5.5 wk base); rising to the upper end of its range on strong, rising volume, with earnings due next week (Apr 23, after the close).

I am going to be out this afternoon, traveling early for this weekend. I'm running low on whale blubber (why go solar when you can burn blubber for free?) and subsequently I'll be icefloing in a broad, northerly direction. I'll be posting, but expect light sentencing for the next few days. Trades and allocation will continue to convey via Twitter, but I won't be talking so much. I'll be frozen.

If the market spikes still-higher with emotion I will reduce exposure dramatically. If the tide turns I will increase the hedge dramatically and then look to unload the names going poor on the charts. And if the market just continues onward, slowly and surely taking us up to higher-highs without much in the way of drama, then I will just sit fat, cull here and there and perhaps add to existing winners, etc. etc., yup yup

Total Position: 8-to-1 net long, 79% invested
(Note: SDS hedge is leveraged, accts are playing roughly 4-1 net long at moment)

Currently Long (according to size): OTEX, PMCS, NFLX, GS, ARST, RIMM, DRI, CEO, MYGN, WNR, RJI, MNRO, BKE, FORM, BBY, CYOU, CHKP

Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short, currently 8.9% position)
(Note: inverse-ETF SDS represents being dbl-short the SP500)

Where's the Bear? (cute pullback so far)

They're selling on the (GS) news today and it sure looks...really boring out there.

Never short a dull market, right? Especially if it has been trending higher.

I revised my plan of attack slightly, as the market neither thrust with an emotional burst higher (giving me the chance to get temporarily short), nor did it turn very grim in the gums (giving me fear to flight instead of fight).

We're pulling back some, but like yesterday the action (so far) remains more constructive than anything else. I added back some names long, ahead of plan, and subsequently I made a minor increase to my short-hedge; nothing yet aggressive.

Intel reports tonight and tech is acting decently on the day (on a relative basis; earlier tech was trading higher in the face of an otherwise down-market, not so much at this moment). Perhaps we'll get an emotional rush higher on the heels of INTC. If so, I would likely then increase my hedge dramatically (in order to afford accumulating leadership on a then subsequent pullback; as mentioned in the previous post).

Otherwise I am not looking to hedge aggressively unless and until internals truly turn bearish. If we are going to remain cute and cuddly and pull-back in constructive fashion whereby leading stocks are demonstrating resilience, breadth is far from extreme and bears are squirming due to the meek re-trace profits - then I will more or less hold pat. If I increase my hedge it is only because I am increasing longs at the same time (like this morning). Then when the market looks ready to rise again I let go the hedge (letting go the hedge to move aggressively long is much easier/faster than trying to quickly load-up a dozen stocks long...so I get long the stocks as they set-up and let go the hedge at the moment the overall market looks to turn).

I'm sure I've repeated myself enough by now and if it doesn't make sense yet it never will (not necessarily your fault, I may be totally incompetent for all you know). On top of that, everything here is subject to change depending on the action. So I'll just shut up, update my real moves via Twitt-spit.

I know bears are looking at this and perhaps thinking I am pathetic, ridiculous and indeed incompetent to think that a pullback here will only set-up another leg long. And do you know what the sick thing about that is?

I am all of those things and I don't care if I'm wrong...for a day. You might be totally, utterly right and I am missing on the greatest shorting opportunity since the last greatest shorting opportunity. But I'm the kind of trader who if he vomits in his sleep, he likes to move onto his side. I'm not looking to fight gravity. Bring it on and I'll catch up down the way some.

Note on CYOU - I re-exited again this morning, but am currently looking to re-load again long; somewhere between 26 and 27; we'll see.

2nd Note: I was stopped into a larger TWM position just now, prior to posting. I've adjusted the position here below and I'm closer to market neutral for the moment; still looking to add leadership as names set-up. Pullback now a little less cute, but I'll stick with the basic gist of this post for now.

Total Position: 2.45-to-1 net long, 51% invested
(Note: accts are leaning closer to 1.25-to-1 net long, due to leverage of TWM and SDS hedges)

Currently Long (according to size): ARST, MYGN, RJI, WNR, PMCS, MNRO, BKE, BBY, FORM, CHKP

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell-2k Dbl-short), SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs SDS and TWM represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Carry out the Shorts

While further upside for Monday is far from out of the question, the bang-up session came today. I'm trimming slowly and steadily, the spoils from my ramped-up and unprotected splash aggressive-long.

In other words, stepping over the bodies of dead short people while cutting back an aggressive long stance initiated yesterday.

I'll be traveling later today, to an as of yet undisclosed but thoroughly exotic blood-lust pack-and-Carrie whirlwind spontoon-festoon underwater action adventure thunderland.

As such I'm going to keep this brief. Follow the Twittcast for anything especially relevant from here. I expect to continue trimming; I want to get down to under 3-1 net long, and am looking to short an index near the close; as a partial hedge.

At the moment the action is quieting some, but internals are severe-positive. Hence I am trying to hold out for the close before hedging; via SDS or something similar.

Bone weekend!

Total Position: 3.88-to-1 net long, 66.5% invested

Currently Long (according to size): ARST, CYOU, TSYS, BKE, MYGN, WNR, RJI, MNRO, NFLX, TNDM BBY, CHKP

Currently Short (according to size): GE, AAPL

Bearing the Pain

Bears are feeling it still. I don't want to be a bear as long as it looks like this.

Like it or not, the market is behaving well today; notably resilient on the heels of this week's blast-up.

I reduced yesterday's (new) shorts as a result, and while some of the exit points were poor relative to the day's range, these were presumed hedges; when they were closer to profitable I was holding out of necessity but ultimately unloaded when it was clear they couldn't hold their own water.

Accounts here are still positive today (so far) and this is because the leadership longs are making up for negative recent short trades.

That and a nice entry into DIOD long in the opening minutes.

These blaring-ugly trades can be laughed at via the Twittfit on the right >>> Notice how long my losses are held, relative to gainers. Even if I'm full-out pathetic with fresh-fires, I'm rarely ruined because I keep my broken clocks telling the right time and throw out anything worse.

If I brush aside everything I might think and simplify matters, the simple truth is that 1.) the market is consolidating softly and quietly, which is constructive action; while 2.) Bellwether GS has so far managed to re-take its 200-day moving average today (>115.27); and 3.) when I put on shorts it feels a lot like a pitchfork in my skull, while my long positions have been basically printing money.

That last part is relevant to me and I weight that that highly when analyzing protection, aggression and whether I'll be buying a last-minute plane deal to Boca Bora this weekend; get out to the water for alternative thrills and kills.

I'll be hunting more live longs by scouring the charts this weekend (from whatever location I find myself). The market still behaves like a bull at moment and I'll continue to treat it that way until the bears finally turn this fork around.

Last weekend's list of leadership longs can be viewed here in the meantime.

Total Position: 3.42-to-1 net long, 73% invested

Currently Long (according to size): RJI, PMCS, WNR, NFLX, ARST, CHKP, LFT, MYGN, MNRO, TSYS, DIOD, DRI, IOC

Currently Short (according to size): NTRS, RSH, ELOS, EGO

Strike That (re-illuminate long)

What doesn't kill you only makes you stronger, right?

Bears can't be happy.

The market did gap-lower but demand has since Mobbed sellers. As the major's cannot break down, then we should either chop sideways or else revert higher. I prefer chopping, whereby leadership stocks work quietly higher under an otherwise quiet surface. But if she wants to burn it up instead I won't get nasty (though I will let some of the air out on any emotional blast higher.

I backed-off from (brief) hedging and am back to fully-bloated long (aggressive growth leadership). For the moment I still have half of the JPM short (from yesterday's close), but it is now paired with GS long. Other than that I have RSH and a small amount of EGO short (the latter is no hedge, just a Cramer double-promo fade; hopefully for the ages).

My FMER Cramer-fade from last night was a scalp in the end. I took profits as soon as it was clear the world wasn't going to end again. I still love you though Cramer. And thanks for the tips on buying CELG (for the last few months!). I'm sorry I didn't take that one seriously.

That's the dope on my shorts. But it is the (many) longs that are far more interesting; to this fish at least. I know these names don't appeal to you, that's Okay. I'm just going to sit here quietly and make some money while you guys find better things to do. I've got enough over-roasted coffee to last all week. I can piss in canteens if need be and I just peel-off whale jerky on an as-needed basis.

Yep, the action should get quiet now methinks. I'm thinking nap-time in fact.

The sweat shop then may closed for me today - I'm in monitor mode. I'll spitTwitt changes from here out, but again don't do anything I do (at least not because of anything I have said). Watch a mad-trader blow-up with too many longs for fun and informational porpoises only.

I'm a bloody mutual fund here at the moment. Good trading.

Total Position: 7.85-to-1 net long, 96% invested

Currently Long (according to size): MYGN, NFLX, ARST, RJI, PMCS, MNRO, WNR, SNDA, LFT, NVLS, CHKP, GS, FORM (new), TNDM, TSYS, DRI, IOC

Currently Short (according to size): RSH, JPM, EGO

Copyright LLBAG, 2009 - Locked Loaded and Bloated Aggressive Growth Fund, LTD

Warm Plunge?

Signals are mixed today.

The market internals are dreadful, with 88% of NYSE stocks and 81% of Nasdaq stocks so far declining on the session. The major indices are trading more than 3% lower, led by the NYSE; down closer to 4%.

At the same time though, leadership growth stocks are notably resisting pressure; in fact many of the leadership names have reversed higher today, in spite of the ugly tape.

I increased hedges early, scaling into a large percentage of TWM; which positioned my accounts net-short for the day (accounting for TWM and SRS leverage). At the same time I began covering individual shorts on the weakness, letting go of RSH and ELOS and reducing EGO; and soon began adding new leadership long (NFLX, TNDM and DRI so far).

In other words, I am presently hedged, but when the hedges come off I am suddenly going to be aggressively, almost fully long. This might run counter to the idea that I would sell sell and sell on a break-down in the indices, but frankly I am seeing too much continued strength in the leadership and the sell-off today has only further illuminated this reality.

If they cannot sell on a day like today, they are going to jam higher once pressure subsides. I don't have any comment on when pressure will subside, but with breadth this severely negative I would argue the odds of a reversal for the overall market today is significantly low. And don't do anything I am doing, but I am confident that leadership is going to higher-highs in the not-distant future.

So much for my Friday rant...I guess buying a further pullback may not be jumping in front of an eager bear after all. We'll see.

Currently Long (according to size): MYGN, ARST, NFLX, RJI, TSYS, PMCS, MNRO, WNR, SNDA, IOC, LFT, TNDM, DRI

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell-2k Dbl-short), SRS-long (US Real Est. Dbl-short), AXA, EGO
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Slaying Low

This will be brief, as the market is not exactly inspiring in either direction at the moment.

I've shifted as the market has shifted and I'm up slightly so far on the week, but I'm trying to keep small; currently 1.78-to-1 net long, while only 54% invested.

It seems to me that the bull and bear voices out in the world right now are a lot louder than the market moves. I'm giving the overall action a little credit here, but if I had to tell you where the next big move lies I'd be unhappy to commit. I have my updated lists of eligible Longs and Shorts in hand and I will attack anything credible, but at the moment I'm eying cheap tickets to the harpoon belt and thinking of taking a day or two off and letting you all make the money instead.

Total Position: currently 1.78-to-1 net long, (54% invested)

Currently Long (according to size): ARST, WNR, PMCS, MYGN, SNDA, UGP

Currently Short (according to size): BWA, ALV, ELOS