Monday, April 06, 2009
Save Our Bears
How much longer can we punish these under-water bruisers?
While we haven't yet seen any important break yet in the major indices, action is toppy today and the internals negative enough to suggest things won't likely improve before this session is concluded.
Bears are breathing again.
If we surprise and manage to reverse today, it would be important and I would go back to keying long leadership. Without that, it is a question of how dark things shade today and ultimately then what amount of downside follow-through we'll see tomorrow.
I was able to slide myself short here without much damage and at the moment I'm positioned well for the present action. If things deteriorate more dramatically I will begin letting go the long-end of my position, otherwise I am looking for where to add to the right names and when to let go of hedges. Below 810 on the SP500 I would be less ambitious to be buying or adding to longs; below 775 on the SP500, I expect I would be aggressively short.
I sold the IOC today on the positive discovery-news; I added to a winning ARST position on the low-volume slice lower; I have been working RJI and almost finished reducing to ~4%. Keep up on the feedTwitt if you please - just don't do anything I do (at least not because I am doing it).
I'm working on an updated working list for individual shorts, which should be posted by tonight at latest.
Total Position: 1.75-to-1 net long, 83% invested
(Note: though the position is technically net-long, it is leaning notably short, due to leverage of the 2x's short-hedges)
Currently Long (according to size): PMCS, ARST, WNR, NFLX, CHKP, LFT, RJI, MYGN, MNRO, TSYS, DIOD, DRI
Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell-2k Dbl-short), SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short), GE, SRS-long (US Real Est. Dbl-short), ELOS, EGO
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM, SDS and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)