Stuck

When the last trader on Earth sells this dollar, let me know. That's going to set-up a nice trade.

Wait. That guy is me. The dude with a hot-poker stuck to his insides.

Fine, I admit it. I waited a few days, but I admit it. Now I don't even want to make money on this trade - I just want out. That's the psychology of a bad or poorly-timed trade (poorly bench-marked in my case). Now I've got to step over my own dead body to make money here. Who wants to perform like that?

Nature of the beast I guess.

I love my job, don't get me wrong. But it can get ugly. Sticking-out multiple parts in varying directions means occasionally something's going to get whacked. This is why you have got to be disciplined. This is why you can't let a loss get momentum on you.

This is why you want to push on players stuck in such a rut. Push push push until they either break or until some miracle bails them out. They're basically a zit that has one general destiny (pressure will build and build until something pops). I want to be pushing on that zit, I don't want to be the zit.

My futures accounts lately have been the zit.

Okay, okay, it's not all bad. These same zits losing money in futures this week performed very well with equities (still!). We're all shocked at how quickly you can return-to-sender gains in futures - but we're big boys, no? We're still printing money and the other side is still giving it away.

I'm not the only incredibly successful dolt on this planet right now either. The battle between Kobe and Carmelo is epic (if you haven't seen) - an epic war between two guys who are well-matched and uber-determined to out-perform the other. One guy is older, more cold-blooded and experienced, but the other guy is coming-on, bigger and with a longer reach (and frankly, quicker on the ball/boards). Anyhow, Kobe was in the zone of zones late last night; sick, cold-blooded zone - the kind that means he'll eat your children before he blows the opportunity. He was going to make his shot from anywhere on the court and he had demonstrated this several times in the fourth quarter (with Carmelo literally in his face). So when it was down to the final few seconds and his team (Lakers I think) needs 3-points to send it into over-time - the greatest basketball coach of all freaking time designs a play to get the ball to some ancient-glory old guy who throws-up prayers these days from behind the arc. Kobe doesn't even touch the ball. The play was sent somewhere else. No way to cash in like that. Half-off greatness coupon with the expiration date expired. Jaw dropper.

When I saw that, I felt better about having misdirected this currency trade. I gave the ball to Fisher. Fisher didn't eat any little children. I'm sitting here with dollar-off egg on my face.

Fine. Today is that ever-lovely brand of pre-holiday seasonal strength. Only this time the market is a bit suspect coming in, so no whole-hog approach (if we re-cave later in the session it won't be a shocker). I did adjust for this and fortunately my longs today are walking over my shorts (hence, even though I'm still slightly net-short, equity portfolios are up nicely).

Towards the end of the day (or sooner if things should deteriorate) I expect to re-shift back to net-short. This is either a negative or else dull market now, until proven otherwise. I have my views, but I am still not sharing. I will however do my best to keep in stride with it as it develops. One half-step behind in most cases (which is unlike being the only guy left who's long the dollar).

Good long weekend. I'm going to get outside and kill something. I'll be back with my updated kill-list of shorts by Monday night. Don't do what I do - now you know why I'm always saying it/

Total Position: 1.07-to-1 net short (plays 1.19-to-1 net short considering leveraged SKF), 63% invested (NOTE: stepped out of SDS temporarily for seasonal strength. Will likely go into wkend closer to 2-1 net-short, depending).

Currently Long (according to size): ASIA ( 6.7%), CYOU (6.1%), LIHR (5.9%), SNDA (reduced, 5.7%), BKE (3.7%), PEET (2.9%)

Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (temporarily 0%; SP500 Dbl-short), STRA (5.1%), NTRS (new, 4.1%), NDAQ (4.1%), CAL (new, 3.7%), SKF-long (3.6%; Fncl's Dbl-short), MDT (3.5%), FULT (3%), CNO (2.8%), SKYW (2.8%)
(Note: inverse-ETFs SDS and SKF represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts: (still stuck and buried long these)
-Short 30% Jun Euro last night, 1.3683 ave.
-Short 20% Jun BR Pound, 1.5602 ave.

Options (relevant accounts): no position

Bear Spring

Too soon to say yet if the bear is back, but not too soon to adjust. I increased my SDS-hedge in the pre-market and added SKF after the regular session failed to find any positive traction 60 minutes in.

Internals are severely negative and while volume on the NYSE is not extreme, the Nasdaq volume rate is running historically high so far.

I'm positioned more short than long for now, but I'm willing to let go longs as it becomes necessary (which presumably increases my exposure short). Anything breaking on rising volume will go. Anything remaining is hedged for now.

If internals remain extreme AND we are not beginning to recover, I will look to short aggressively in the final 75 minutes; for a daytrade. If we do manage to recover later, I'll reduce hedges accordingly. Either way, I'll convey via Twitter.

Total Position: 1.62-1 net long, 72% invested
(Note: accounts are leaning net-short now since leverage of SDS and SKF hedges outweigh long exposure)

Currently Long (according to size): PMCS, NFLX, CEO, MYGN, RJI, WNR, MNRO, BKE, BBY, FORM, CHKP, CYOU

Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short, currently 22.1% position), SKF-long (US Financials Dbl-short, currently 5.3%)
(Note: inverse-ETFs SDS and SKF represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

North Snort (bear is good food)

Well, horseshoe up my ass.

GOOG, GE and C earnings are out of the way, the market dropped, as per bear's predictions. But the option-expiration action simmered into frozen dull drums, drifting drifting drifting until leadership names began quietly raging again on the tape. I'm lucky-still and still making money; loaded to the whale gills on aggressive growth.

However, I have begun phasing downward some; increasing the hedge and decreasing the number of longs. I can't stay too ramped-up for too long and I can't taunt you bears forever before getting bit.

That said, I will hang in net-long until the action forces otherwise (I don't have a target). I'll cut back on emotional thrusts; while culling-out dead wood; and I'm hedging according to present action and my own idiot-lucky determination of present risk (since I have too many names to dump at once, I'll increase the hedge dramatically once needed, allowing me then to let go and/or trim the lesser-performing longs soon thereafter).

I let go the Rimm-long today, as that one tagged the 200-day moving average. I would reconsider a new set-up long above that level (currently stands at 68.34, but is trending slightly downward); I entertained the idea of shorting this one up here today and benching w the 200-day on a closing basis, but it has too much momentum. I'll let you guys make the money on that trade.

GS flashed a negative divergence yesterday, so I blew out my remaining half. If it were my only child I'd hold it longer, but I have enough mealy-mouths left to keep me busy.

And as advertised I'm cutting this short. Action is positive now and that is good because I am out on the weekend already and have other distractions.

I'm deep outside, in some upper ascending triangle of resistance, somewhere North of Nanuvut. I'm skipping Disney-Finlayson Islands here, since I was up most of the night smoking wolves out of an abandoned whale-bone shelter. The wolves weren't too happy, but nor was I. Earlier I tried sleeping in the hull of the boat, ice cracking beneath sleeping bag and boat in unison. This place is too cold, even for my taste. The sky now shifts various shades of wanton pallor as the sun squibs higher.

Up here they bathe in salt water, hacksaw whale ribs in order to skewer other whales, then hefty-bag the cubes for easy Spring storage. I love this place.

Oh, BAC reports before the open Monday. No one would be too surprised to see this rally stall on that beast. I'll be back home for the action. Bears can point to that event now - an even better top for the market ;)



Total Position: 4.35-1 net long, 74% invested
(Note: SDS hedge is leveraged, accts are playing roughly 2.17-to-1 net long at moment)

Currently Long (according to size): PMCS, NFLX, ARST, OTEX, DRI, CEO, MYGN, WNR, RJI, MNRO, BKE, FORM, BBY, CYOU, CHKP

Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short, currently 13.9% position)
(Note: inverse-ETF SDS represents being dbl-short the SP500)

17 Longs (all wrong, but lucky still)

With JPM earnings now out of the way, action today was mixed early, but now reasonably positive. Leadership is humming quietly along, with technology notably strong on the tape again.

Due to the quiet rise of this pivot-rally from yesterday's early lows, I am able to hold patiently; adding here and trimming there but, without big changes. I'm a bit hedged, but remain a mutual fund - loaded with aggressive growth.

Further big drivers on the horizon: GOOG reports tonight, then Citigroup (C) and Generally Electric (GE) before the open tomorrow. Monday is Bank O'merica (BAC) earnings. Mattel (MAT) is also set to report before the open tomorrow. I would take a stab short there ahead of that number (stabbing Barbie in this case), but for the fact that so many uglies are blasting higher on bad news.

Note the fact that AMR was down yesterday morning on earnings, and then rallied only 25% in the span of 10 minutes; a rather effective assault on bears.

I know I don't want to short a tape where losers act like that; one of the reasons I am stupid-lucky and holding half the tape long at moment.

I took profits on half the GS trade, sold 123.74 in the pre-market; I'm holding the other half for now. This tranche (now 4.9%) may end up a core position, depending. I will unload when there is a clear failure, distribution, stalling or break (In either GS or in the mkt); which means if there is no reason to run I will be in this one through to higher-highs and potentially beyond; we'll see how lucky it gets, I don't have a target.

I added a new oil name long into the mix, CEO on the pullback. China seems to be the driver these days still, as so many of the groups rising in relative strength turn up Chinese stock symbols as the strongest names within those groups. Westworlder WNR is my only other oil play in the mix; been in that for some weeks now (except perhaps a day or two). IOC is one I should have held onto, but at least I sold it significantly extended (31-ish a couple of weeks ago). IOC is headquartered in Australia; it's a bit thin and it recently moved onto the NYSE; given all of that I'm ok to let someone else make the money on IOC.

I have orders to sell the RIMM-long a little below the 200-day MA. That may be a stretch for this session (200-day is 68.60 currently), but it could be reached by the after-mkt tonight, depending on GOOG. I will be open to sell within 12 cents of the mark in case we spike on the GOOG report; I'll be gone before then should the price spike that high prior.

I did manage to get back my NFLX later yesterday, and within a 15 cents of the 45.55; this too, is a would-be core position, assuming it doesn't fail in the meantime (now 5.1% sized-position). Yesterday I also reloaded OTEX-long (now 6.7%). This one does looked poised to breakout, but it is thin and now below the 1st pivot-point of 36.40 (I may have bitten-off too-much too-soon here); I will reduce if it cannot get back above 36.40 by tomorrow (sooner if it starts downward from here; below 35.70 or so).

I added to PMCS long today. This one looks poised for a fresh breakout (5.5 wk base); rising to the upper end of its range on strong, rising volume, with earnings due next week (Apr 23, after the close).

I am going to be out this afternoon, traveling early for this weekend. I'm running low on whale blubber (why go solar when you can burn blubber for free?) and subsequently I'll be icefloing in a broad, northerly direction. I'll be posting, but expect light sentencing for the next few days. Trades and allocation will continue to convey via Twitter, but I won't be talking so much. I'll be frozen.

If the market spikes still-higher with emotion I will reduce exposure dramatically. If the tide turns I will increase the hedge dramatically and then look to unload the names going poor on the charts. And if the market just continues onward, slowly and surely taking us up to higher-highs without much in the way of drama, then I will just sit fat, cull here and there and perhaps add to existing winners, etc. etc., yup yup

Total Position: 8-to-1 net long, 79% invested
(Note: SDS hedge is leveraged, accts are playing roughly 4-1 net long at moment)

Currently Long (according to size): OTEX, PMCS, NFLX, GS, ARST, RIMM, DRI, CEO, MYGN, WNR, RJI, MNRO, BKE, FORM, BBY, CYOU, CHKP

Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short, currently 8.9% position)
(Note: inverse-ETF SDS represents being dbl-short the SP500)

Save Our Bears

How much longer can we punish these under-water bruisers?

While we haven't yet seen any important break yet in the major indices, action is toppy today and the internals negative enough to suggest things won't likely improve before this session is concluded.

Bears are breathing again.

If we surprise and manage to reverse today, it would be important and I would go back to keying long leadership. Without that, it is a question of how dark things shade today and ultimately then what amount of downside follow-through we'll see tomorrow.

I was able to slide myself short here without much damage and at the moment I'm positioned well for the present action. If things deteriorate more dramatically I will begin letting go the long-end of my position, otherwise I am looking for where to add to the right names and when to let go of hedges. Below 810 on the SP500 I would be less ambitious to be buying or adding to longs; below 775 on the SP500, I expect I would be aggressively short.

I sold the IOC today on the positive discovery-news; I added to a winning ARST position on the low-volume slice lower; I have been working RJI and almost finished reducing to ~4%. Keep up on the feedTwitt if you please - just don't do anything I do (at least not because I am doing it).

I'm working on an updated working list for individual shorts, which should be posted by tonight at latest.

Total Position: 1.75-to-1 net long, 83% invested
(Note: though the position is technically net-long, it is leaning notably short, due to leverage of the 2x's short-hedges)

Currently Long (according to size): PMCS, ARST, WNR, NFLX, CHKP, LFT, RJI, MYGN, MNRO, TSYS, DIOD, DRI

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell-2k Dbl-short), SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short), GE, SRS-long (US Real Est. Dbl-short), ELOS, EGO
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM, SDS and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Ice Floed

I slept in today, not getting up until 5:30 Tijuana time; my head was throbbing although I didn't drink a drop last night; my small, net-long position was not going to get any miracles given that Europe was for sale again; my body cleaner since I soaked my head long enough to (hopefully) wash away yesterday's anti-groove; my dog Tripod still happy, even though he has only 3 legs.

It's too bad I'm handcuffed from attacking fresh today, the tape is just ruthless.

Anyway, I've refined rules over the years and I know how to get to the end-game - make sure you cannot self-destruct. The way you do that is to get progressively larger when things are going sublime and get smaller when you suck divine.

I don't kick the dog and I don't kick myself. But I sure as hell don't need to blow-up accounts.

Right now I'm sharpening incisors (I've got 16 of those now) and watching the market as if this was for hobby. I see some amazing things, none of them exactly lovely. I'll pipe in by tonight with some of what I see.

Make some money baby! With or without me.

Total Position: currently 1.08-to-1 net long, (14% invested)
Currenty long (according to size): SNDA (4.3%), IOC (3%)

Currently Short (according to size): AEM (6.6%; going against me today, but I'm not going anywhere on this one just yet)

16 incisors + sharpeners above