Tuesday, April 14, 2009
Where's the Bear? (cute pullback so far)
They're selling on the (GS) news today and it sure looks...really boring out there.
Never short a dull market, right? Especially if it has been trending higher.
I revised my plan of attack slightly, as the market neither thrust with an emotional burst higher (giving me the chance to get temporarily short), nor did it turn very grim in the gums (giving me fear to flight instead of fight).
We're pulling back some, but like yesterday the action (so far) remains more constructive than anything else. I added back some names long, ahead of plan, and subsequently I made a minor increase to my short-hedge; nothing yet aggressive.
Intel reports tonight and tech is acting decently on the day (on a relative basis; earlier tech was trading higher in the face of an otherwise down-market, not so much at this moment). Perhaps we'll get an emotional rush higher on the heels of INTC. If so, I would likely then increase my hedge dramatically (in order to afford accumulating leadership on a then subsequent pullback; as mentioned in the previous post).
Otherwise I am not looking to hedge aggressively unless and until internals truly turn bearish. If we are going to remain cute and cuddly and pull-back in constructive fashion whereby leading stocks are demonstrating resilience, breadth is far from extreme and bears are squirming due to the meek re-trace profits - then I will more or less hold pat. If I increase my hedge it is only because I am increasing longs at the same time (like this morning). Then when the market looks ready to rise again I let go the hedge (letting go the hedge to move aggressively long is much easier/faster than trying to quickly load-up a dozen stocks long...so I get long the stocks as they set-up and let go the hedge at the moment the overall market looks to turn).
I'm sure I've repeated myself enough by now and if it doesn't make sense yet it never will (not necessarily your fault, I may be totally incompetent for all you know). On top of that, everything here is subject to change depending on the action. So I'll just shut up, update my real moves via Twitt-spit.
I know bears are looking at this and perhaps thinking I am pathetic, ridiculous and indeed incompetent to think that a pullback here will only set-up another leg long. And do you know what the sick thing about that is?
I am all of those things and I don't care if I'm wrong...for a day. You might be totally, utterly right and I am missing on the greatest shorting opportunity since the last greatest shorting opportunity. But I'm the kind of trader who if he vomits in his sleep, he likes to move onto his side. I'm not looking to fight gravity. Bring it on and I'll catch up down the way some.
Note on CYOU - I re-exited again this morning, but am currently looking to re-load again long; somewhere between 26 and 27; we'll see.
2nd Note: I was stopped into a larger TWM position just now, prior to posting. I've adjusted the position here below and I'm closer to market neutral for the moment; still looking to add leadership as names set-up. Pullback now a little less cute, but I'll stick with the basic gist of this post for now.
Total Position: 2.45-to-1 net long, 51% invested
(Note: accts are leaning closer to 1.25-to-1 net long, due to leverage of TWM and SDS hedges)
Currently Long (according to size): ARST, MYGN, RJI, WNR, PMCS, MNRO, BKE, BBY, FORM, CHKP
Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell-2k Dbl-short), SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs SDS and TWM represent being dbl-short the respective indices)