Bear Spring

Too soon to say yet if the bear is back, but not too soon to adjust. I increased my SDS-hedge in the pre-market and added SKF after the regular session failed to find any positive traction 60 minutes in.

Internals are severely negative and while volume on the NYSE is not extreme, the Nasdaq volume rate is running historically high so far.

I'm positioned more short than long for now, but I'm willing to let go longs as it becomes necessary (which presumably increases my exposure short). Anything breaking on rising volume will go. Anything remaining is hedged for now.

If internals remain extreme AND we are not beginning to recover, I will look to short aggressively in the final 75 minutes; for a daytrade. If we do manage to recover later, I'll reduce hedges accordingly. Either way, I'll convey via Twitter.

Total Position: 1.62-1 net long, 72% invested
(Note: accounts are leaning net-short now since leverage of SDS and SKF hedges outweigh long exposure)

Currently Long (according to size): PMCS, NFLX, CEO, MYGN, RJI, WNR, MNRO, BKE, BBY, FORM, CHKP, CYOU

Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short, currently 22.1% position), SKF-long (US Financials Dbl-short, currently 5.3%)
(Note: inverse-ETFs SDS and SKF represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

North Snort (bear is good food)

Well, horseshoe up my ass.

GOOG, GE and C earnings are out of the way, the market dropped, as per bear's predictions. But the option-expiration action simmered into frozen dull drums, drifting drifting drifting until leadership names began quietly raging again on the tape. I'm lucky-still and still making money; loaded to the whale gills on aggressive growth.

However, I have begun phasing downward some; increasing the hedge and decreasing the number of longs. I can't stay too ramped-up for too long and I can't taunt you bears forever before getting bit.

That said, I will hang in net-long until the action forces otherwise (I don't have a target). I'll cut back on emotional thrusts; while culling-out dead wood; and I'm hedging according to present action and my own idiot-lucky determination of present risk (since I have too many names to dump at once, I'll increase the hedge dramatically once needed, allowing me then to let go and/or trim the lesser-performing longs soon thereafter).

I let go the Rimm-long today, as that one tagged the 200-day moving average. I would reconsider a new set-up long above that level (currently stands at 68.34, but is trending slightly downward); I entertained the idea of shorting this one up here today and benching w the 200-day on a closing basis, but it has too much momentum. I'll let you guys make the money on that trade.

GS flashed a negative divergence yesterday, so I blew out my remaining half. If it were my only child I'd hold it longer, but I have enough mealy-mouths left to keep me busy.

And as advertised I'm cutting this short. Action is positive now and that is good because I am out on the weekend already and have other distractions.

I'm deep outside, in some upper ascending triangle of resistance, somewhere North of Nanuvut. I'm skipping Disney-Finlayson Islands here, since I was up most of the night smoking wolves out of an abandoned whale-bone shelter. The wolves weren't too happy, but nor was I. Earlier I tried sleeping in the hull of the boat, ice cracking beneath sleeping bag and boat in unison. This place is too cold, even for my taste. The sky now shifts various shades of wanton pallor as the sun squibs higher.

Up here they bathe in salt water, hacksaw whale ribs in order to skewer other whales, then hefty-bag the cubes for easy Spring storage. I love this place.

Oh, BAC reports before the open Monday. No one would be too surprised to see this rally stall on that beast. I'll be back home for the action. Bears can point to that event now - an even better top for the market ;)



Total Position: 4.35-1 net long, 74% invested
(Note: SDS hedge is leveraged, accts are playing roughly 2.17-to-1 net long at moment)

Currently Long (according to size): PMCS, NFLX, ARST, OTEX, DRI, CEO, MYGN, WNR, RJI, MNRO, BKE, FORM, BBY, CYOU, CHKP

Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short, currently 13.9% position)
(Note: inverse-ETF SDS represents being dbl-short the SP500)

17 Longs (all wrong, but lucky still)

With JPM earnings now out of the way, action today was mixed early, but now reasonably positive. Leadership is humming quietly along, with technology notably strong on the tape again.

Due to the quiet rise of this pivot-rally from yesterday's early lows, I am able to hold patiently; adding here and trimming there but, without big changes. I'm a bit hedged, but remain a mutual fund - loaded with aggressive growth.

Further big drivers on the horizon: GOOG reports tonight, then Citigroup (C) and Generally Electric (GE) before the open tomorrow. Monday is Bank O'merica (BAC) earnings. Mattel (MAT) is also set to report before the open tomorrow. I would take a stab short there ahead of that number (stabbing Barbie in this case), but for the fact that so many uglies are blasting higher on bad news.

Note the fact that AMR was down yesterday morning on earnings, and then rallied only 25% in the span of 10 minutes; a rather effective assault on bears.

I know I don't want to short a tape where losers act like that; one of the reasons I am stupid-lucky and holding half the tape long at moment.

I took profits on half the GS trade, sold 123.74 in the pre-market; I'm holding the other half for now. This tranche (now 4.9%) may end up a core position, depending. I will unload when there is a clear failure, distribution, stalling or break (In either GS or in the mkt); which means if there is no reason to run I will be in this one through to higher-highs and potentially beyond; we'll see how lucky it gets, I don't have a target.

I added a new oil name long into the mix, CEO on the pullback. China seems to be the driver these days still, as so many of the groups rising in relative strength turn up Chinese stock symbols as the strongest names within those groups. Westworlder WNR is my only other oil play in the mix; been in that for some weeks now (except perhaps a day or two). IOC is one I should have held onto, but at least I sold it significantly extended (31-ish a couple of weeks ago). IOC is headquartered in Australia; it's a bit thin and it recently moved onto the NYSE; given all of that I'm ok to let someone else make the money on IOC.

I have orders to sell the RIMM-long a little below the 200-day MA. That may be a stretch for this session (200-day is 68.60 currently), but it could be reached by the after-mkt tonight, depending on GOOG. I will be open to sell within 12 cents of the mark in case we spike on the GOOG report; I'll be gone before then should the price spike that high prior.

I did manage to get back my NFLX later yesterday, and within a 15 cents of the 45.55; this too, is a would-be core position, assuming it doesn't fail in the meantime (now 5.1% sized-position). Yesterday I also reloaded OTEX-long (now 6.7%). This one does looked poised to breakout, but it is thin and now below the 1st pivot-point of 36.40 (I may have bitten-off too-much too-soon here); I will reduce if it cannot get back above 36.40 by tomorrow (sooner if it starts downward from here; below 35.70 or so).

I added to PMCS long today. This one looks poised for a fresh breakout (5.5 wk base); rising to the upper end of its range on strong, rising volume, with earnings due next week (Apr 23, after the close).

I am going to be out this afternoon, traveling early for this weekend. I'm running low on whale blubber (why go solar when you can burn blubber for free?) and subsequently I'll be icefloing in a broad, northerly direction. I'll be posting, but expect light sentencing for the next few days. Trades and allocation will continue to convey via Twitter, but I won't be talking so much. I'll be frozen.

If the market spikes still-higher with emotion I will reduce exposure dramatically. If the tide turns I will increase the hedge dramatically and then look to unload the names going poor on the charts. And if the market just continues onward, slowly and surely taking us up to higher-highs without much in the way of drama, then I will just sit fat, cull here and there and perhaps add to existing winners, etc. etc., yup yup

Total Position: 8-to-1 net long, 79% invested
(Note: SDS hedge is leveraged, accts are playing roughly 4-1 net long at moment)

Currently Long (according to size): OTEX, PMCS, NFLX, GS, ARST, RIMM, DRI, CEO, MYGN, WNR, RJI, MNRO, BKE, FORM, BBY, CYOU, CHKP

Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short, currently 8.9% position)
(Note: inverse-ETF SDS represents being dbl-short the SP500)

Where's the Bear? (cute pullback so far)

They're selling on the (GS) news today and it sure looks...really boring out there.

Never short a dull market, right? Especially if it has been trending higher.

I revised my plan of attack slightly, as the market neither thrust with an emotional burst higher (giving me the chance to get temporarily short), nor did it turn very grim in the gums (giving me fear to flight instead of fight).

We're pulling back some, but like yesterday the action (so far) remains more constructive than anything else. I added back some names long, ahead of plan, and subsequently I made a minor increase to my short-hedge; nothing yet aggressive.

Intel reports tonight and tech is acting decently on the day (on a relative basis; earlier tech was trading higher in the face of an otherwise down-market, not so much at this moment). Perhaps we'll get an emotional rush higher on the heels of INTC. If so, I would likely then increase my hedge dramatically (in order to afford accumulating leadership on a then subsequent pullback; as mentioned in the previous post).

Otherwise I am not looking to hedge aggressively unless and until internals truly turn bearish. If we are going to remain cute and cuddly and pull-back in constructive fashion whereby leading stocks are demonstrating resilience, breadth is far from extreme and bears are squirming due to the meek re-trace profits - then I will more or less hold pat. If I increase my hedge it is only because I am increasing longs at the same time (like this morning). Then when the market looks ready to rise again I let go the hedge (letting go the hedge to move aggressively long is much easier/faster than trying to quickly load-up a dozen stocks long...so I get long the stocks as they set-up and let go the hedge at the moment the overall market looks to turn).

I'm sure I've repeated myself enough by now and if it doesn't make sense yet it never will (not necessarily your fault, I may be totally incompetent for all you know). On top of that, everything here is subject to change depending on the action. So I'll just shut up, update my real moves via Twitt-spit.

I know bears are looking at this and perhaps thinking I am pathetic, ridiculous and indeed incompetent to think that a pullback here will only set-up another leg long. And do you know what the sick thing about that is?

I am all of those things and I don't care if I'm wrong...for a day. You might be totally, utterly right and I am missing on the greatest shorting opportunity since the last greatest shorting opportunity. But I'm the kind of trader who if he vomits in his sleep, he likes to move onto his side. I'm not looking to fight gravity. Bring it on and I'll catch up down the way some.

Note on CYOU - I re-exited again this morning, but am currently looking to re-load again long; somewhere between 26 and 27; we'll see.

2nd Note: I was stopped into a larger TWM position just now, prior to posting. I've adjusted the position here below and I'm closer to market neutral for the moment; still looking to add leadership as names set-up. Pullback now a little less cute, but I'll stick with the basic gist of this post for now.

Total Position: 2.45-to-1 net long, 51% invested
(Note: accts are leaning closer to 1.25-to-1 net long, due to leverage of TWM and SDS hedges)

Currently Long (according to size): ARST, MYGN, RJI, WNR, PMCS, MNRO, BKE, BBY, FORM, CHKP

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (Russell-2k Dbl-short), SDS-long (SP500 Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs SDS and TWM represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Root Ripping Action (tape remains positive)

Today is perfect. Perfect and boring.

Perfect because the internals are clearly positive (again), my portfolio is flying, and yet the majors are only quietly higher. Having had my share of sharp sticks in the eyes, I can attest - this is better.

Obviously we see the market action only as it refers to our current position, right? If I were positioned short I should see today's action as ridiculous, unfounded and bound to fail any bar now, yes?

I say this because I know how easy it is to be subjective, to see every chart and move in the light which best justifies our (losing!) position. Bears know what I'm talking about.

Naturally, this defines me as some smug bull barker who is talking out of his ass and is going to have a new one torn very very soon and the only reason it hasn't happened yet is that I was saved again yesterday by the Plunge Protection Team (PPT), etc. etc.

Truth is, I'm never really bullish. I can say that with honesty, since I trained myself for years to hate all stocks. It's true - I hate them all. If I ever find myself getting sweet on a name, I immediately kick it out of the portfolio; not kidding.

In fact, I despise this entire game. If I could make a living, I'd rather have root canal! As it is I'll never have root canal because I hate dentists also - those shinny-toothed, silver-haired rats, gassed-up and rummaging inside endless rotten mouths with all that new dental technology. God I hate the dentists - let someone else have proper teeth.

Okay, I was lying to you just then about dentists. Those creeps are really nice beneath that graying skin, I am sure. But stocks I hate - long or short.

Don't fall in love with your position and/or outlook, my friend. That is the message.

Some note on my (dreaded) position: MYGN gapped-up on a 2-1 stock split. I sold at the open and bot back closer to the breakout pivot. I am happy to continue with this name above that pivot of 44.20; SNDA gave me a re-entry long as it was downgraded by a small firm. I'm re-building this one (sold yesterday), beginning at the 10-day and scaling-in higher (still small, 3.4% at this writing. Note, I scale-in higher, not lower); TSYS is attempting to breakout and I reloaded that one again long. This one a bit thin, but today's volume is running > 2x's normal and rising from yesterday's rising vol. I will not hold this at the close if below the 9.93 pivot; ARST, which I loathe to hold already is attempting a breakout. I would be initiating long here, but I have already a 7.7% position and may not increase, depending; RSH, which I re-entered short yesterday is ramming higher on the heels of BBY's blast-up. I'm holding in so far, content to use the 50-day MA as a bench on closing basis (currently 10.02). If it's to close slightly above that level, but volume remains low and not rising > yesterday, I will take it overnight anyway; Oh yeah, I was able to finish Cramer fade EGO, short in the premkt >9.60 ave. Scroll to previous post for full monty on someone i love - JC.

Refer to the Twitt-trough for keeping up with my hated trades. Good luck out there.

Total Position: currently 3.14-to-1 net long, (86.5% invested)

Currently Long (according to size): RJI, MYGN, ARST, GS, TSYS, PMCS, WNR, MNRO, IOC, SNDA

Currently Short (according to size): AXA, RSH, EGO, ELOS