Friday, May 22, 2009

Stuck


When the last trader on Earth sells this dollar, let me know. That's going to set-up a nice trade.

Wait. That guy is me. The dude with a hot-poker stuck to his insides.

Fine, I admit it. I waited a few days, but I admit it. Now I don't even want to make money on this trade - I just want out. That's the psychology of a bad or poorly-timed trade (poorly bench-marked in my case). Now I've got to step over my own dead body to make money here. Who wants to perform like that?

Nature of the beast I guess.

I love my job, don't get me wrong. But it can get ugly. Sticking-out multiple parts in varying directions means occasionally something's going to get whacked. This is why you have got to be disciplined. This is why you can't let a loss get momentum on you.

This is why you want to push on players stuck in such a rut. Push push push until they either break or until some miracle bails them out. They're basically a zit that has one general destiny (pressure will build and build until something pops). I want to be pushing on that zit, I don't want to be the zit.

My futures accounts lately have been the zit.

Okay, okay, it's not all bad. These same zits losing money in futures this week performed very well with equities (still!). We're all shocked at how quickly you can return-to-sender gains in futures - but we're big boys, no? We're still printing money and the other side is still giving it away.

I'm not the only incredibly successful dolt on this planet right now either. The battle between Kobe and Carmelo is epic (if you haven't seen) - an epic war between two guys who are well-matched and uber-determined to out-perform the other. One guy is older, more cold-blooded and experienced, but the other guy is coming-on, bigger and with a longer reach (and frankly, quicker on the ball/boards). Anyhow, Kobe was in the zone of zones late last night; sick, cold-blooded zone - the kind that means he'll eat your children before he blows the opportunity. He was going to make his shot from anywhere on the court and he had demonstrated this several times in the fourth quarter (with Carmelo literally in his face). So when it was down to the final few seconds and his team (Lakers I think) needs 3-points to send it into over-time - the greatest basketball coach of all freaking time designs a play to get the ball to some ancient-glory old guy who throws-up prayers these days from behind the arc. Kobe doesn't even touch the ball. The play was sent somewhere else. No way to cash in like that. Half-off greatness coupon with the expiration date expired. Jaw dropper.

When I saw that, I felt better about having misdirected this currency trade. I gave the ball to Fisher. Fisher didn't eat any little children. I'm sitting here with dollar-off egg on my face.

Fine. Today is that ever-lovely brand of pre-holiday seasonal strength. Only this time the market is a bit suspect coming in, so no whole-hog approach (if we re-cave later in the session it won't be a shocker). I did adjust for this and fortunately my longs today are walking over my shorts (hence, even though I'm still slightly net-short, equity portfolios are up nicely).

Towards the end of the day (or sooner if things should deteriorate) I expect to re-shift back to net-short. This is either a negative or else dull market now, until proven otherwise. I have my views, but I am still not sharing. I will however do my best to keep in stride with it as it develops. One half-step behind in most cases (which is unlike being the only guy left who's long the dollar).

Good long weekend. I'm going to get outside and kill something. I'll be back with my updated kill-list of shorts by Monday night. Don't do what I do - now you know why I'm always saying it/

Total Position: 1.07-to-1 net short (plays 1.19-to-1 net short considering leveraged SKF), 63% invested (NOTE: stepped out of SDS temporarily for seasonal strength. Will likely go into wkend closer to 2-1 net-short, depending).

Currently Long (according to size): ASIA ( 6.7%), CYOU (6.1%), LIHR (5.9%), SNDA (reduced, 5.7%), BKE (3.7%), PEET (2.9%)

Currently Short (according to size):
SDS-long (temporarily 0%; SP500 Dbl-short), STRA (5.1%), NTRS (new, 4.1%), NDAQ (4.1%), CAL (new, 3.7%), SKF-long (3.6%; Fncl's Dbl-short), MDT (3.5%), FULT (3%), CNO (2.8%), SKYW (2.8%)
(Note: inverse-ETFs SDS and SKF represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts: (still stuck and buried long these)
-Short 30% Jun Euro last night, 1.3683 ave.
-Short 20% Jun BR Pound,
1.5602 ave.

Options (relevant accounts): no position

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