Sunday, June 28, 2009
Arrived yesterday in Naples and heading to Pompeii now for the day (Vesuvio tomorrow). Overnight futures are down slightly but leadership has remained quite game at the same time that the overall market lumbers in a mild uptrend (my favorite type of action for simply holding onto to winning positions).
As long as this continues I can keep with the plan of holding into the July 4th holiday seasonal strength; with the idea of selling names on Thursday (2nd) [edited] and then early Monday (6th). Given the nature of the recent action (leadership growth behaving very strong under the otherwise quiet surface) there exists a reasonable chance we'll see a strong advance-day for the overall market somewhere in this time frame. If so, I may reduce on strength sooner, in the final 30 minutes of that session.
There are some hurdles, as always, and if we stumble to any significant degree I'll adjust the game-plan and lighten sooner. Potential game-changers include 1.) the potential that the end of the quarter Tuesday will mark short-term highs in leadership stocks; 2.) the monthly employment report due Thursday [edited]; and 3.) anything else which may develop AND strikes a chord in the market.
A final thing I have to be wary of is the possibility of failed breakouts turning into selling routs. Several of my positions now are either breaking-out or poised for a breakout. I live for such problems, but with life in the fast lane eyes must keep alert. If break-outs like RAX and PAR stall and turn below break-out pivot points, I'll let them go ahead of schedule. If SNDA breaks to a new high now, I will look to sell right into it (since the too-far-too-fast advance means the likelihood it will need further consolidation); while if CYOU breaks-out I will try to hang-in for the ride until Friday or Monday (as this one is less mature, it remains a beast so far, and almost any upside is possible.
In other words, neither CYOU nor SNDA has a reasonable base to break-out of just now, yet the younger CYOU has a better chance for getting even more disgusting. I've done well earlier in selling-out at the right moment and then hopping back on for more after pulling back, but on this particular juncture, given the calendar, the general trend and the fact that it has no business now being back to new highs again after such a brief consolidation, why should I get logical and conservative when this name acts like it still wants to surprise?
I expect few entries again this week, while I'm exploring past and future Volcanoes and ultimately then heading out into the Mediterranean. My Twitter works well enough for broadcasting changes in my position, but even those may come late now as I will miss chunks of time (though not opens and closes) and I'll be dealing largely with limit and stop orders intraday.
Total Position: 100% long, 53% invested
Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (6.1%), ASIA (5.5%), RAX (5.4%), SNDA (4.9%), WFT (4.7%), TQNT (4.2%), ARST (4.2%), NFLX (4%), LFT (3.8%), MRVL (3.5%), PEET (3.5%), PAR (3.3%)
Currently Short (according to size): no current position
Futures Accounts: no current position