CYOU (wouldn't want to be you)

While a pullback may be in the cards short term, or not, it is clear the market is still behaving well...for now.

That may seem a fairly useless statement, but I've little reason to pretend to know more than the most basic truths about this business. The older I get (I am ancient you know) the less I care what I think about any tomorrow. I prefer being 1-step behind, and simply responding.

Ignorance is under-rated.

I'm still out of the country, but looking to swing-trade any reasonable set-ups (long) this week; from a variety of leadership groups. Clearly it is the Chinese growth names which remain the predominate leaders; and within that spectrum it is the Internet Content names which are hottest; and within that group it is the video gaming providers who've cornered their market (see illustration above).

Still!

That means watching the action on CYOU today (reported this AM) and neighbors from the group (NTES, PWRD and SNDA), will be a highlight. CYOU is a volatile leader and before last week it really had never done anything in its young history to concern me. But we saw major-volume selling last week and I am out for now. At the same time I am keen to get involved again if it digests today's report well (and the market and the group remain live, etc.).

Elsewhere, I'm going to try and trade out of BIDU on the up-open here (if it can jack more than a few points), but I see no reason no to then get back aboard on the first reasonable set-up. The price-target was raised there today by Citigroup, which may make for a crafty short-term exit on a gap-up, following the huge day from BIDU on Friday.

Total Position: 100% net-long, 13% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BIDU (7.2%), NTAP (5.8%)

Currently Short (according to size): no current position

Futures Accounts: no current position

Pom Payday

Arrived yesterday in Naples and heading to Pompeii now for the day (Vesuvio tomorrow). Overnight futures are down slightly but leadership has remained quite game at the same time that the overall market lumbers in a mild uptrend (my favorite type of action for simply holding onto to winning positions).

As long as this continues I can keep with the plan of holding into the July 4th holiday seasonal strength; with the idea of selling names on Thursday (2nd) [edited] and then early Monday (6th). Given the nature of the recent action (leadership growth behaving very strong under the otherwise quiet surface) there exists a reasonable chance we'll see a strong advance-day for the overall market somewhere in this time frame. If so, I may reduce on strength sooner, in the final 30 minutes of that session.

There are some hurdles, as always, and if we stumble to any significant degree I'll adjust the game-plan and lighten sooner. Potential game-changers include 1.) the potential that the end of the quarter Tuesday will mark short-term highs in leadership stocks; 2.) the monthly employment report due Thursday [edited]; and 3.) anything else which may develop AND strikes a chord in the market.

A final thing I have to be wary of is the possibility of failed breakouts turning into selling routs. Several of my positions now are either breaking-out or poised for a breakout. I live for such problems, but with life in the fast lane eyes must keep alert. If break-outs like RAX and PAR stall and turn below break-out pivot points, I'll let them go ahead of schedule. If SNDA breaks to a new high now, I will look to sell right into it (since the too-far-too-fast advance means the likelihood it will need further consolidation); while if CYOU breaks-out I will try to hang-in for the ride until Friday or Monday (as this one is less mature, it remains a beast so far, and almost any upside is possible.

In other words, neither CYOU nor SNDA has a reasonable base to break-out of just now, yet the younger CYOU has a better chance for getting even more disgusting. I've done well earlier in selling-out at the right moment and then hopping back on for more after pulling back, but on this particular juncture, given the calendar, the general trend and the fact that it has no business now being back to new highs again after such a brief consolidation, why should I get logical and conservative when this name acts like it still wants to surprise?

I expect few entries again this week, while I'm exploring past and future Volcanoes and ultimately then heading out into the Mediterranean. My Twitter works well enough for broadcasting changes in my position, but even those may come late now as I will miss chunks of time (though not opens and closes) and I'll be dealing largely with limit and stop orders intraday.

I'm off.

Total Position: 100% long, 53% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (6.1%), ASIA (5.5%), RAX (5.4%), SNDA (4.9%), WFT (4.7%), TQNT (4.2%), ARST (4.2%), NFLX (4%), LFT (3.8%), MRVL (3.5%), PEET (3.5%), PAR (3.3%)

Currently Short (according to size): no current position

Futures Accounts: no current position

Holding Long (now hella wrong)

I hesitate to say I'm down much less today than this position gained yesterday, since that sort of statement flies from lips of blindfolded fools standing before squads of itchy fingers.

All the same, I'm playing a bit of rope-a-dope here. Daring this market to shoot me.

The Fed's beige book was just released; following the lack-luster 10-yr auction results; following the negative reversal in equities this morning; following coffee stains mounting my rotting teeth.

Nothing more brilliant to say than that, sorry. I may end up hedging and/or reducing before the day is through. If we're not making lower-lows in the final 90 minutes of the day however, I expect to hold pretty much pat.

I re-bot CYOU today under 40. It's still extended, but it's still a monster; until it isn't.

Accounts are back to flat now on the day as the market catches a small bid. I'm really in for it now perhaps. Twitter the fool if you care to follow.

Total Position: 6-to-1 net-long, 56% invested

Currently Long (according to size): TQNT (5.3%), ARST (3.6%), RAX (4.2%), WFT (4.7%), ASIA (4.7%), SWN (4.6%), PEET (3.8%), CYOU (reloaded today 39.96, 3.3%), SNDA (3.4%), AU (3.2%), LFT (2.3%), JDSU (2.2%), FNSR (1.9%)

Currently Short (according to size): ONXX (4.1%), MYGN (3.9%)

Futures Accounts: no current position

Anger Ménage (bear market for fish)

Sick-positive action in leadership stocks today. Days like this I don't want to talk too much, so I won't. I save the rants for moments less pristine.

Zero Hedge drummed-up a nice sign-of-the-times video. This guy's not unlike Cramer, really. He just takes a different view on green bleeping shoots...



When I saw that I immediately recalled Tuff Fish, an infamous online poker player from back in the Party Poker days...



Total Position: 5.5-to-1 net-long, 51% invested

Currently Long (according to size): TQNT (5.3%), ASIA (4.7%), SWN (4.6%), WFT (4.5%), RAX (4.2%), PEET (3.8%), ARST (3.6%), SNDA (3.4%), AU (3.2%), CYOU (out for now, 42.12)

Currently Short (according to size): ONXX (4.1%), MYGN (3.9%)

Futures Accounts: no position

Killing it Neutral (shift toward mkt-neutral)

While I see no reason at moment to position bearishly. my guard went up today. I was quite busy early, shifting towards market-neutral.

The most troubling action came from the currency markets, in my opinion. On the employment report we saw a big drop in the dollar (rally in the Euro, Pound, etc. at the same time), but that was followed by bigger, and frankly nasty reversals. At this writing the dollar is up significantly and holding, treasuries were slammed, gold is hobbling and (at least) oil is flat now on the day.

This might seem insignificant (and perhaps it will turn out that way), however the currency markets have been leading equities for some months now, by roughly two-days. Two days ago the dollar saw a sharp rally and now today it is following through and we've developed something of an uptrend. If equities are going to remain linked to the currency leadership, then upside for stocks may now be limited; we'll see.

Most traders like to make a lot of of a little (especially those who write and post!) and I don't want to make a big deal out of this. I will react and respond however to changes in the market. If stocks cannot sell-off now, I would be happy to keep pushing leadership long. Yet if we start deteriorating, I'd like to let you in on my latest hunt-and-thrust images and fire like a maddened maniac short. Faster Pussycat Kill Kill - Race the fastest pussycats an they'll beat you...to death.

We'll see.

That's the long way to say that I'm closer to market neutral now and ready to react in either direction, depending. zzzzz

CYOU and SNDA (NTES as well in that group, but I didn't have that one on this rally) are animals still, but they are quite extended at moment and I let them go on the up-open. In the case of CYOU, that lovely powered only 50.2% from the low 10-trading days ago to the early high this morning. I left 2% of that gain behind, having sold too low at 40.08; snort!

I'm still shaking off the 4000 flushes here (having sneezed over 500 times in 3 days now) and I'm heading out for warm warm waters, looking to kill something. Be sure to tune in over the weekend to check-up on the spoils. I've invited Trish, but she's too sophisticated for my kind and currently not answering emails. Her weekends I imagine are spent tanning, shoplifting red sweaters and studying the markets (right!). She's certainly not getting out to Devil's Golf Course to exfoliate with me anytime soon to.

Nail my tongues to the floor why don't you.

Total Position: 1.73-to-1 net-long (plays 1.14-to-1 net-long considering levered SDS); 53% invested
(Note: inverse-ETF SDS represents being dbl-short the sp500 index)

Currently Long (according to size): ASIA (4.6%), SWN (4.6%), WFT (4.5%), RAX (4.3%), PEET (3.9%), ARST (new, 3.4%), TQNT (reduced today, 3.3%),

Currently Short (according to size): SDS-long (new, 8.5%; SP500 Dbl-short), ONXX (new, 4.1%), MYGN (new, 3.9%)

Futures Accounts: 10% short Jun NDX, from 1497.00

CYOU (fyi)

CYOU is now quite extended, having moved 43% from the low 7-trading days ago to today's intraday high (27.10 t0 38.73).

I have begun trading out and back-in again, but I am looking to keep at least a reduced position if it refuses to consolidate and just continues driving (not out of the question).

Group-neighbor SNDA reports eps tonight. Assuming I haven't exited again before the close, I will look to let-go remaining CYOU shares on that news; then buy back at the first possible set-up (SNDA was reduced here yesterday).