Thursday, September 03, 2009

Rock Paper Rock (paper group leading)

Fully long here again, for now at least.

I'll be up early tomorrow, watching life flash before drooping eyelids as anti-jobs data pummels my shares into oblivion. I've been warned now so many times it appears I'm staying back for the hurricane while the rest of the town is on the highway out of here.

Good luck to me. It should be a real barn-burner, right?

Okay, so I am avoiding Retail at least, even though there are several strong charts there. But if Hurricane 10% hits right in the gullet I'll at least not have to bail-out from under the teen-jean sector. Otherwise I'm discounting all better logic and giving premium to the market strength.

We're still holding after the strongest advance in years, at the same time that everyone knows better than to trust it. I'll take that and a 5th cup of coffee to get my performance up.

Paper - Paper is king. I saw this some time ago, even before leaving for summer. But at that point I didn't buy into it (logic is a killer). By the time it was clear I had been missing out on something special, I was in babysit-only mode and not taking on new positions (in-between sipping umbrella drinks). Now though, I've taken this nasty little pullback to load up on bleached paperboad, lightweight linerboard, and fancy cigarette papers (cleaner and greener cigarette papers, no doubt).

Paperboard-to-tears in fact, as CLW sells bleached tissues as well.

Here is the better of the bunch, as I rate them: SWM, CLW, RKT, KPPC, BKI, UFS, BZ, IP, VCP

These names have barely declined from their highs, and as such they may still spank downward. And due to that you may catch me unloading and then re-loading, in an attempt to first miss a new slice downward and then to quickly catch the better entry lower. But today's re-wash in the S&P gave the best opportunity yet (as of this writing I am still working adding a 3rd paper name, w/ partial fills only at a very good entry; trying now to work work the rest-in higher). If they do not decline further, then I am on (paper)board with the leading group.

I also put my head on the chopping block and re-entered SNDA today (first time in some time there). Earnings are coming out after the close today. I won't say much here, because it will look really stupid if that name gaps lower 15% tomorrow.

Clearly, I'm about to be ruined. It is September, after all.

Total Position: 100% net-long; 53% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CTSH (7.3%), SWM (7%), MRVL (7%), RJI (6.3%), CYOU (5.2%), CLW (5%), NEU (5%), SNDA (5%), CORE (5%)

Currently Short (according to size): no position

Futures Accounts: no position

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