Rock Paper Rock (paper group leading)

Fully long here again, for now at least.

I'll be up early tomorrow, watching life flash before drooping eyelids as anti-jobs data pummels my shares into oblivion. I've been warned now so many times it appears I'm staying back for the hurricane while the rest of the town is on the highway out of here.

Good luck to me. It should be a real barn-burner, right?

Okay, so I am avoiding Retail at least, even though there are several strong charts there. But if Hurricane 10% hits right in the gullet I'll at least not have to bail-out from under the teen-jean sector. Otherwise I'm discounting all better logic and giving premium to the market strength.

We're still holding after the strongest advance in years, at the same time that everyone knows better than to trust it. I'll take that and a 5th cup of coffee to get my performance up.

Paper - Paper is king. I saw this some time ago, even before leaving for summer. But at that point I didn't buy into it (logic is a killer). By the time it was clear I had been missing out on something special, I was in babysit-only mode and not taking on new positions (in-between sipping umbrella drinks). Now though, I've taken this nasty little pullback to load up on bleached paperboad, lightweight linerboard, and fancy cigarette papers (cleaner and greener cigarette papers, no doubt).

Paperboard-to-tears in fact, as CLW sells bleached tissues as well.

Here is the better of the bunch, as I rate them: SWM, CLW, RKT, KPPC, BKI, UFS, BZ, IP, VCP

These names have barely declined from their highs, and as such they may still spank downward. And due to that you may catch me unloading and then re-loading, in an attempt to first miss a new slice downward and then to quickly catch the better entry lower. But today's re-wash in the S&P gave the best opportunity yet (as of this writing I am still working adding a 3rd paper name, w/ partial fills only at a very good entry; trying now to work work the rest-in higher). If they do not decline further, then I am on (paper)board with the leading group.

I also put my head on the chopping block and re-entered SNDA today (first time in some time there). Earnings are coming out after the close today. I won't say much here, because it will look really stupid if that name gaps lower 15% tomorrow.

Clearly, I'm about to be ruined. It is September, after all.

Total Position: 100% net-long; 53% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CTSH (7.3%), SWM (7%), MRVL (7%), RJI (6.3%), CYOU (5.2%), CLW (5%), NEU (5%), SNDA (5%), CORE (5%)

Currently Short (according to size): no position

Futures Accounts: no position

Update on Portfolio (further in both directions)

I did add to new-leadership in the second half of the session, but I increased my SRS-hedge at the same time. I'm similarly hedged then, as far as weightings, but now hold a larger position underneath (trade-fills are on Twitter feed on right).

If we crush further tomorrow, I'm going to be exposed some, unless I can finagle a larger hedge at an opportune time (I'll be up early tomorrow, looking at sales tags around the world). But at the same time with one simple cover I can be fully long and sufficiently large; by unloading SRS. Being able to position immediately fully long would be advantageous in the very small chance the market doesn't continue straight down here and make so many professionals so brilliant for saying so.

Today was not watershed in terms of Advances vs. Declines, Up/Down ratios, and certainly not in the number of new 52-week lows. But volume was significant on the negative reversal.

Total Position: plays roughly 2-to-1 net-long (considering levered SRS); 55% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CTSH (7.4%), RJI (6.3%), CLW (5.2%), CYOU (5.1%), GNW (5.1%), CORE (5.1%), SWM (5%), MRVL (4.4%)

Currently Short (according to size): SRS-long (US Real Est. Dbl-short; (11.9% position)
(Note: inverse-ETF SRS represents being dbl-short the respective index)

Futures Accounts: no position

Quicknote (hedged some - eyeing otherwise)

The good news - 450 CNBC shouts and counting, that the market correction is under way. Logic dictates downside legs will be limited; we'll see.

The bad news - a rather ugly reversal on good news (again, but worse this time + strong, rising volume), a strengthening dollar (and lower commodity prices), exploding volatility and a perceptible downtrend now in the indices.

While I got whipped a bit today, I am excited that I can now start scaling into newer leadership (ex: SWM) on a slice downward. Not rushing in just yet; but perhaps a little more at the close, depending.

And I've taken on a decent amount now of SRS (Commercial Real Estate Ultrashort), to afford the undertaking.

In a nutshell, still rather lean overall at the moment, but happy to see everyone clearing out when the market has only corrected a few percent.

Total Position: plays roughly 2-to-1 net-long (considering levered SRS); 42% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CTSH (7.4%), RJI (6.3%), CYOU (5.1%), CORE (5.1%), SWM (5%), MRVL (4.4%)

Currently Short (according to size): SRS-long (US Real Est. Dbl-short; (8.2% position)
(Note: inverse-ETF SRS represents being dbl-short the respective index)

Futures Accounts: no position