Friday, August 28, 2009

Quicknote (reduced now to 29%)

What doesn't kill you is apt to kill you eventually if it doesn't make you stronger, right?

I'm reducing further now, as the reversal/rally has turned genuinely pale, and on strong (for a summer Friday), rising volume. I'm not interested to get short, but I am getting smaller; will be lean going into September; looking for reasonable entry points on newer leadership.

Total Position: 100% net-long, 29% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CTSH (7.6%), RJI (6.6%), CORE (5.3%), CPSL (5.3%), MRVL (4.6%; reduced by half last night)

Currently Short (according to size):
no position

Futures Accounts: no position

Sun and Shun (more churn than earn)

Bulls and bears can now grumble alike, since the market cannot gain traction in either direction. Today is disappointing in the rally. Breadth on the Nasdaq is clearly negative, on rising volume, coincident with an index which gapped-up to new highs (distributive, or churning action and negative). News is plentiful and positive today and early prices cannot seem to stick. Sentiment has shifted from unison warnings about a correction to a mixture now of that but also jubilant praise over yesterday's reversal and now Intel's upped revenue guidance; and what it all says about a recovery.

Tough to smile when you see all of this and gin-soaked Larry Kudlow is in your ear at the same time, jammering about the brighter than bright future being now universally proven. I have to leave the room to keep from selling more shares.

I'm not hedged, but I did cut back exposure (fortunately in the opening minutes and after-mkt last night - Twittspit feed on the right is the source here for live trade-updates). At this point I'm happy if we can manage a real pullback. I'd like to shift into some newer leaders for the final quarter, assuming we don't break down in greater than normal corrective fashion, and the entry points right here are not so desirable.

Total Position: 100% net-long, 52% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CTSH (7.6%), BIDU (6.9%), RJI (6.6%), STEC (5.4%), CORE (5.3%), CPSL (5.3%), CSIQ (5%), CNQR (5%), MRVL (4.6%; reduced by half last night)

Currently Short (according to size):
no position

Futures Accounts: no position

Thursday, August 27, 2009

New Live Longs (updated partial working-list of aggressive growth leaders, for entertainment only)


Thanks to all the warnings from muttonchummed chopbrains I'm blessed with each day, spewing unified direction on how much we needed to sell this market, now more than ever, since the imminent This Rally is Just Not Sustainable sell-off was brewing brewing brewing!

Now that we're all so rocked! I can get back to my half-ass posts and woe my now-virtually-worthless list of aggressive growth leaders (see below).

Naturally now we'll probably really get wrecked. Don't play any of the below names yourself (not if your reason for buying has anything to do with me. Selling or shorting then, by implication would be allowed, since that is not my recommendation. But I am not recommending you do that either because I am never recommending anything. So beat it wise guy - get a decent job for a change).

And this is not my buy-now list or anything like that. Where and when to buy is a different problem; and one we're not likely to get into anytime soon since the garbage truck was already backed up on Thursday and the market already turned on your dime (we've missed half or more of the move already if I was to reach for a guess, and you still have shorts to cover. Christ).

What we're left with is this partial list of leading growth names I am looking at lately. What a waste. Maybe this will be more useful in a couple of weeks, I don't know. I'm going now for a nap.

Semiconductor Mfg:
TQNT
CREE
STEC
TQNT
MRVL (eps came thurs, aftermkt)
VLTR
FCS
AMCC
CY
BRCM
OVTI
ONNN
PMCS

Paper:
SWM
CLW
RKT

Computer-Data Storage:
NTAP
TDC
WDC

Computer-Sftwr Enterprise
CKSW
SMSI (thin)
ININ (thin)
CTXS
TIBX
CRM
CHINA
SWI

Retail-Whlsle-Computer/Cell:

TECD
CELL

Metal Ores:
IVN
SLT
CCJ
BHP

Banks-Money Center:
TD
GS
RY
BMO
BAC

Banks-Foreign:
IBN

Retail-Clothing/Shoe:
JOSB
ARO
GES
DBRN
ARO
LULU
CHS
TJX


Leisure Services:
PCLN

Medical-Systems/Equip:
ISRG
MELA
NSPH


Insurance-Life:

LFC
FFG
DFG
AEL

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Zag Ho!


Understand, when I say I've been on vacation it means more than I was out of town. It means I'm not listening to CNBC.

Hence Vacation.

Today was different. No vacation at all. CNBC piping through the screen here all day. No visual, no insightly text - just pure harmony of heads hamming. I've written enough about this, so I'll just sum it up - I have a hate-love relationship with heads on CNBC.

I got a lot out of CNBC today though. Today there was a clear pattern of agreement. A flowing consensus from heads who know something about the market, heads who no little but shine their darnedest presenting the market and other heads...professionals who know as much as any coinflip can boast.

Now, unfortunately I cannot say much more. Partly because I am a holdout, using this forum only to organize my thinking, but primarily because implying that I know any better - the lonely thinker that I am - that would be dangerous. I don't know shit, see. And I have trained myself very very hard to get this far. I'm certainly not going to waste a lifetime of work now just for you!

So I know nothing. Pure, lovely nothing. If you see me get off track, nudge be back in place. But be sure I was really saying something. I can't afford to be holding opinions. It makes me more reluctant to adjust when the opinion is losing money.

But I do study. And it is true that sometimes things ring a certain way. So when so many can see a little zag approaching (ignoring, I'm inclined to mention, the larger zig which preceded it, and usually then follows...) - when so many know that the rally in equities is "not sustainable," to quote a common phrase, even though it is the best performing market in years...well, why not get excited?

Enjoy your pullback. I have my own measuring sticks and I see what you see. But until proven otherwise, there are bigger zigs than zags right now and they come coincident with the (under-invested) professionals clamoring more over the zags. You can have tomorrow, even if it lasts the next two weeks - and I might protect, perhaps, depending, etc. I'm not immune to pain. I do have a nervous system.

But mostly I'll take the body shots and bears will bite me to death (again!). Mostly I don't want to give up my position for a zaggish pullback that everyone is warning me against. It is a bull market, after all.

Yes, it's been true for several months now, but for the first time in some years we've been in a very good environment for buy-and-hold (intermediate term trading). If the looming calendar waxing September can indeed knock prices lower, I'll be trying to make the most of it. Not by capitalizing on shorting, but by protecting (hedging) where necessary and ultimately using the pullback to position more fully invested for the final quarter.

I've got lists (eligible aggressive-growth longs) and I'll likely refresh these and get something posted tomorrow or Thursday. Don't lose sleep over it.

Zag that beast! I'm going to bed.

Total Position: 100% net-long, 64% invested

Currently Long (according to size): MRVL (8.2%), CTSH (7.5%), BIDU (6.9%), NTAP (5.5%), CPSL 5.5%, CNQR 5.3%, CORE (5.3%), STEC (5.1%), CYOU (5.1%), LFT (4.8%), RAX (4.7%)

Currently Short (according to size):
no position

Futures Accounts: no position

Monday, August 24, 2009

Tin Can Logic (back from traveling)

Back at my trading desk now, after two months out of the country.

I could say plenty about my trip, as well as current markets, but I'll be brief (...bam!).

Regarding the markets, let's sum it up by highlighting that the investor public and financial media remain fixated on potential negative effects of a weak economy on stocks (especially after such a strong run up) - coincident with action in the market which remains significantly constructive; consolidating at worst. This is a key factor, as the strongest advancing markets historically climb mostly prior to proven improved economic data. By the time the public is aware the economy has certainly improved, the easy money and often the rally altogether is already behind.

The light for the moment remains green for buying and holding. More on this in upcoming posts.

As far as my trip, I'll likely delve more into that, but I'll share this much for now:

In Amsterdam it is easy enough to find an open wifi signal (unlike the majority of my travel this summer). But one secure-network I came across last week had a very catchy name: We're Online - Fuck All of You.

Total Position: 100% net-long, 62% invested

Currently Long (according to size): MRVL (8.2%), BIDU (6.9%), NTAP (5.5%), CPSL 5.5%, CNQR 5.3%, CORE (5.3%), CTSH (5.1%), STEC (5.1%), CYOU (5.1%), LFT (4.8%), RAX (4.7%)

Currently Short (according to size):
no position

Futures Accounts: no position

Friday, August 07, 2009

UWM

Out of half UWM, 24.55. Bench the rest around breakeven (and continue w/ original 1-3 day trade plan)

Twittless (encore encore)

Added initial 5% long CTSH, 34.145 ave.
(now 59% invested; all long)

Twittless (encore)

Added initial 5% long CNQR, 35.70 ave.

Twittless

With Twitter still down, I may as well mention: Added 10% long UWM at 23.44; 1-to-3 day trade.

Quicknote

rStill quiet here as far as posting, but I continue to hold long, quietly; now 39%.

We've seen distribution this week, in the Nasdaq especially. But there are still quite a few volume-breakouts, even on the distribution days themselves, and these have been mostly holding. Action has been weakening overall, but nothing yet too alarming. The glass remains half-full until the market shows worse.

Today we're to gap-higher, following the monthly employment report. If we move back to higher-highs today or Monday, then all remains well and I'll be looking to add further exposure long. If we stall-out, reverse lower, etc., then it may be time to reduce, if not move aside altogether. I'm not interested in shorting until the trend has proven itself negative and the calendar edges closer to September.

I still contend this market is better to be 1-step behind than to anticipate.

Total Position: 100% net-long, 39% invested

Currently Long (according to size): MRVL (8.2%), GS (7.2%), BIDU (7%), CPSL (6%), NTAP (5.8%), CORE (5%)

Currently Short (according to size):
no current position