Tin Can Logic (back from traveling)

Back at my trading desk now, after two months out of the country.

I could say plenty about my trip, as well as current markets, but I'll be brief (...bam!).

Regarding the markets, let's sum it up by highlighting that the investor public and financial media remain fixated on potential negative effects of a weak economy on stocks (especially after such a strong run up) - coincident with action in the market which remains significantly constructive; consolidating at worst. This is a key factor, as the strongest advancing markets historically climb mostly prior to proven improved economic data. By the time the public is aware the economy has certainly improved, the easy money and often the rally altogether is already behind.

The light for the moment remains green for buying and holding. More on this in upcoming posts.

As far as my trip, I'll likely delve more into that, but I'll share this much for now:

In Amsterdam it is easy enough to find an open wifi signal (unlike the majority of my travel this summer). But one secure-network I came across last week had a very catchy name: We're Online - Fuck All of You.

Total Position: 100% net-long, 62% invested

Currently Long (according to size): MRVL (8.2%), BIDU (6.9%), NTAP (5.5%), CPSL 5.5%, CNQR 5.3%, CORE (5.3%), CTSH (5.1%), STEC (5.1%), CYOU (5.1%), LFT (4.8%), RAX (4.7%)

Currently Short (according to size): no position

Futures Accounts: no position

Added Long (and Mount Deer Doom avoided)

Outside of the Chinese growth stocks, the market showed further resilience yesterday and I'm buying in some on today's early weakness. Nothing too extreme and I've spread-out now between 4 leadership groups.

Trades here are still being fed live via my Twitter page; while commentary on this side remains subdued.

As for the Chinese internet-content/video-gamer names yesterday, in the end action there was suspect at best. CYOU's The Duke of Mount Deer release-date will be delayed, God forbid, and the name remains under pressure. I'm not yet against it, but I've yet to reload any trigger there. While they have yet to break anything significant, volume has been heavy on the decline.

Total Position: 100% net-long, 28% invested

Currently Long (according to size): MRVL (8.2%), BIDU (7.1%), GS (7%), NTAP (5.9%)

Currently Short (according to size): no current position

CYOU (wouldn't want to be you)

While a pullback may be in the cards short term, or not, it is clear the market is still behaving well...for now.

That may seem a fairly useless statement, but I've little reason to pretend to know more than the most basic truths about this business. The older I get (I am ancient you know) the less I care what I think about any tomorrow. I prefer being 1-step behind, and simply responding.

Ignorance is under-rated.

I'm still out of the country, but looking to swing-trade any reasonable set-ups (long) this week; from a variety of leadership groups. Clearly it is the Chinese growth names which remain the predominate leaders; and within that spectrum it is the Internet Content names which are hottest; and within that group it is the video gaming providers who've cornered their market (see illustration above).

Still!

That means watching the action on CYOU today (reported this AM) and neighbors from the group (NTES, PWRD and SNDA), will be a highlight. CYOU is a volatile leader and before last week it really had never done anything in its young history to concern me. But we saw major-volume selling last week and I am out for now. At the same time I am keen to get involved again if it digests today's report well (and the market and the group remain live, etc.).

Elsewhere, I'm going to try and trade out of BIDU on the up-open here (if it can jack more than a few points), but I see no reason no to then get back aboard on the first reasonable set-up. The price-target was raised there today by Citigroup, which may make for a crafty short-term exit on a gap-up, following the huge day from BIDU on Friday.

Total Position: 100% net-long, 13% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BIDU (7.2%), NTAP (5.8%)

Currently Short (according to size): no current position

Futures Accounts: no current position

Preachy Keen

While I remain committed to blogging very little, the market refuses to let me rest.

I could log my 1000 complaints, except the moves out there are sick; multiple breakouts into and out of earnings reports, and few appear to be failing. I will keep it quiet and just keep trading.

Outside it is beautiful here. Big nature in a million small packages. The Tour starts again today and that will also provide distraction. If you are one of the majority who is rooting for Armstrong to fail and pining every angle for which to criticize, I suggest holding a higher opinion of yourself.

Greatness has a history of being criticized by the rest of us.


Total Position: 100% net-long, 54% invested

Currently Long (according to size): BIDU (9.9%), CYOU (9.1%), EWT (7.3%), MRVL (6.7%), SNDA (6.4%), NTAP (5.4%), TSRA (5%), FFIV (4.9%)

Currently Short (according to size): no current position

Futures Accounts: no current position

same boring location