Well, I'm really in the cone of silence lately.
It's not that I'm not talking. I'm spitting out material up and down lately (still unpublished). I'm posting every trade as well still + some thoughts; for now.
However, I'm not tuned into what anyone is saying about anything here, in terms of the markets; 3 calendar-days and running now.
Are you bullish? Bearish? What are you doing lately? ...I don't really know. I mean, I know in the universal sense - you are WILDLY bullish!! My god you're bullish. Where'd you get those cool moves? No wonder you're bullish.
But in the micro-sense - I don't know in terms of the folks I keep attuned to.
Yes yes, I tuned into CNBC today (during the normal-session anyway). This was not the day to go completely Zen. Seriously, put-to-call numbers are so outrageous right now I had to listen for certain people and certain octave levels; of excitement.
My favorite source there, whose name I cannot apparently mention anymore (I just read my last post, finally. What a smug bastard I'm becoming). Well, this particular gentleman did not show any particularly important levels of excitement. Pretty boring from him lately; and actually, rather boring all around over at that New CNBC these days; in terms of octaves; certain people's octaves; unnamed.
Otherwise I swear on my line I would have unloaded much much more (exposure long). Watch when it happens. I joke about it now, cuz it's fun and I'm into it. But I won't dance around and hope this time it's different. When he goes off I'm moving fast. I'm going to Disneyworld.
Good game market; when he goes off.
That wouldn't make me particularly bearish further out. Not necessarily. I can't say, the bull may roll further or things may just get worse. Telling anyone about that point now would be fool hearty. And I prefer hearty fool...to fool hearty.
As it is, I'm a little short now. I shifted to neutral all through Friday (from ~6-1 long) and I shifted net-short today; currently 1.31-1 net-short. It's a lot short, compared to anything I've been since August, I think, but not too short really.
I'm short enough that I can buy on weakness, instead of having to scramble-sell as this wave transpires, if it transpires at all. And in the event that nothing curls much, I'll let go hedges, accordingly, and paddle-out again; see what's left of the set.
One thing I will admit to though - I'm truly wondering when the year will actually end (if it wasn't today). I say this because I suspect, which is not to say I predict (or know, or think, etc)...
I suspect we're not going out Dec-31 at 2010 market highs.
Send me a line. Curious here what you might think about it.
Total Position: Currently 1.31-to-1 net-short, 107% invested
Currently Long (according to size): NOV (8.3%); PPO (7.3%); CRM (6.7%); NFLX (reduced today, 6.1%); WLT (reduced today, 6%); MCP (sold today); COH (6%); ULTA (6%); OVTI (4.6%)
Currently Short: DXD (long the DJIA dbl-short, 9.9%); SDS (long SP500 dbl-short, 9.9%); CMCSA (8.1%); TNP (7.1%); GMCR (7.1%); DSX (6.9%); GE (6.9%)
(currently weighting DXD and SDS at 1.55 x's, not 2 x's, into the net-long calculation; based on relative beta of longs vs. dbl-short these indices)
Futures: no current position. Traded short 15% March NDX futs Monday for most of today's drop.
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