One Line of Thought (in 15 pieces)

Well, I'm really in the cone of silence lately.

It's not that I'm not talking. I'm spitting out material up and down lately (still unpublished). I'm posting every trade as well still + some thoughts; for now.

However, I'm not tuned into what anyone is saying about anything here, in terms of the markets; 3 calendar-days and running now.

Are you bullish? Bearish? What are you doing lately? ...I don't really know. I mean, I know in the universal sense - you are WILDLY bullish!! My god you're bullish. Where'd you get those cool moves? No wonder you're bullish.

But in the micro-sense - I don't know in terms of the folks I keep attuned to.

Yes yes, I tuned into CNBC today (during the normal-session anyway). This was not the day to go completely Zen. Seriously, put-to-call numbers are so outrageous right now I had to listen for certain people and certain octave levels; of excitement.

My favorite source there, whose name I cannot apparently mention anymore (I just read my last post, finally. What a smug bastard I'm becoming). Well, this particular gentleman did not show any particularly important levels of excitement. Pretty boring from him lately; and actually, rather boring all around over at that New CNBC these days; in terms of octaves; certain people's octaves; unnamed.

Otherwise I swear on my line I would have unloaded much much more (exposure long). Watch when it happens. I joke about it now, cuz it's fun and I'm into it. But I won't dance around and hope this time it's different. When he goes off I'm moving fast. I'm going to Disneyworld.

Good game market; when he goes off.

That wouldn't make me particularly bearish further out. Not necessarily. I can't say, the bull may roll further or things may just get worse. Telling anyone about that point now would be fool hearty. And I prefer hearty fool...to fool hearty.

As it is, I'm a little short now. I shifted to neutral all through Friday (from ~6-1 long) and I shifted net-short today; currently 1.31-1 net-short. It's a lot short, compared to anything I've been since August, I think, but not too short really.

I'm short enough that I can buy on weakness, instead of having to scramble-sell as this wave transpires, if it transpires at all. And in the event that nothing curls much, I'll let go hedges, accordingly, and paddle-out again; see what's left of the set.

One thing I will admit to though - I'm truly wondering when the year will actually end (if it wasn't today). I say this because I suspect, which is not to say I predict (or know, or think, etc)...

I suspect we're not going out Dec-31 at 2010 market highs.

Send me a line. Curious here what you might think about it.

Total Position: Currently 1.31-to-1 net-short, 107% invested

Currently Long (according to size): NOV (8.3%); PPO (7.3%); CRM (6.7%); NFLX (reduced today, 6.1%); WLT (reduced today, 6%); MCP (sold today); COH (6%); ULTA (6%); OVTI (4.6%)

Currently Short: DXD (long the DJIA dbl-short, 9.9%); SDS (long SP500 dbl-short, 9.9%); CMCSA (8.1%); TNP (7.1%); GMCR (7.1%); DSX (6.9%); GE (6.9%)
(currently weighting DXD and SDS at 1.55 x's, not 2 x's, into the net-long calculation; based on relative beta of longs vs. dbl-short these indices)

Futures: no current position. Traded short 15% March NDX futs Monday for most of today's drop.

Follow Centrifugal to fade trades in real time

Updated Position (ditto december lights)

While I did engage in some sloppy trading this week, I'm back on track now today. Similar to the market itself.

I've been reluctant to believe we'll see a typically ditto December (seasonality has been largely upside-down this year and a chorusing clamor in recent weeks has had my guard on high). But December is here and it's snowing out of the gate thus far; if you know what I mean.

I don't need to think, really. As long as the market moves continue to exhibit traction, I prefer to keep a half-step behind instead. As the market began to slide (and especially as the majority of leadership began acting poorly last week) I shifted gradually towards market neutral and eventually net-short by yesterday's close. Today's bang-up comes on strong, rising-volume though and positive internals are severe (implying the major indices will close at or near highs of the session).

I'm holding several shorts at the moment still. If we're rallying again tomorrow I'll be reducing that side of my line further (I let go TWM-hedges in the opening minutes today). In the meantime I haven't gotten too excessive (currently 2.54-1 net-long).

The first day of December is seasonally strong, but standard year-end seasonal strength does not find it's better gear typically until around the 20th of the month. Again, I don't want to write any scripts, but to respond to the market's actual and present nature. If a downtrend resumes, I won't put my head on any Xmas turkey chopping blocks; not for very long anyway.

As of this writing - the corrective action may be over.

Follow Centrifugal to fade trades in real time

Total Position: Currently 2.54-to-1 net-long, 95% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CRM (8.4%); NOV (7.3%); SBUX (7%); LVS (Reloaded today, 6.4%); ULTA (7.4%); COH (6%); OVTI (increasing to 6%); WBC (added today, 6%); ROSE (5.3%); FTNT (added today, 5.1%); RVBD (3.9%)

Currently Short: TNP (7.1%); DSX (7.1%); ERTS (6.3%); DISH (6.2%)

Futures: no current position