Asleep at the Whee-lo (money manager's pullback chamber choir)

Nothing warms me more than a market which moves only higher (seemingly), coincident to a chorus or warnings (daily) why we're going to pull-back - very very shortly; most certainly; since it makes such perfectly logical sense.

Sure sure sure - we have an election on Tuesday and the Fed's QE2 menu releasing Wednesday. We've run up ahead of these events and amply so. Any bum can tell you now we'll sell-off on the news.

So brilliant. May as well sleep-in a little longer.

Meanwhile you are just getting further and further from your benchmark as the market fails to cooperate. You're just too bright for such a ridiculous game, Mr. Manager. You buy your pullback, tough guy. You can even have my shares if you get one, I'm easy. You'll make your year still - there's going to be that year-end rally waiting there at lower levels - just to grace your ass! Christmas turkeys glazing, more full of shit than even you.

Yes yes, I know. Getting cheeky is dangerous sport. Fortunately I'm so old I get away with all kinds of murder. The trick is letting go of your thoughts, beliefs and words pretty much the minute you speak them. I don't even remember what I just said anyway. I could be net-short by the end of the day, I really don't care. Where's my sippy-cup?

At least though I have so many of these guys to tell me what I should be doing. Such peaches.

Kisses

Follow Centrifugal to fade trades in real time

Total Position: Currently 2.8-to-1 net-long, 108% invested (will reduce to ~100% or less by close)

Currently Long (according to size): CRM (10.2%); BVN (8.1%); EWZ-Brazil (7.1%); ULTA (re-increased today, 7%); VALE (6.9%); OVTI (6.7%); PPO (6.1%); LTD (6.1%); MCP (reloaded today, 6%); NFLX (5.8%); COH (5%); DAL (4.9%)

Currently Short: GMCR (could get stopped today, 7.7%); DISH (7.4%); CVS (6.8%); ZMH (7.1%)

Futures: no current position

Quicknote on Action (chinese growth suspect)

The market indeed rocked higher, so I got that right.

Or wrong.

Chinese growth, where I accumulated most of my line, is acting poorly this week. Shanghai is at an almost two month low, down another 2.3% last night. So while US equities continue (so far) to fade the stronger Dollar and have worked back to highs, leadership growth in China is behaving a bit sick; especially in terms of relative strength.

Given that this has been the leadership in the market, it commands some attention. We might see strength in the China names between now and year end (cannot count out the strong seasonal period we're entering, unless/until it becomes clear the market is selling-off in spite of the calendar). But without renewed strength in the higher-growth Chinese plays listed in the US, I wont remain bullish for too long; China or elsewhere.

Total Position: ~3.5-to-1 net-long; 34% invested; Pure longs = 29%

Currently Long (according to size): CML (reduced today, 5.9%), AMZN (5.4%), HMIN (4.9%), CISG (4.1%), RINO (3.7%), HRBN (reduced today, 3%), ULTA (2.2%)

Currently Short (according to size): TWM-long (R2k Dbl-short, reduced today 5.1%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective index)

Futures Accounts: No current position (see the Twittspitt for details)

Sans Hedge (dare the bear)

It's usually the action on the way down that matters most; as far as positioning and allocation.

While I'm no doubt going to get pounded for it tomorrow, following the slew of earnings reporting and subsequent thrashings tonight (Wed, Thurs, etc.), I let go hedges today and am positioned fully long again; albeit only 46% exposed.

I can't say much more than that. If I were stupid enough to get long-only and then chide the other side, I'd be stuffing envelopes for a living.

Tune in tomorrow to see me eaten alive.

-Total Position: 100% net-long
-46% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 46%

Currently Long (according to size): DGW (6.6%), HRBN (6.6%), CFSG (increased today, 6.2%), HMIN (increased yesterday, 6.1%), ULTA (5%), CLW (4.1%), SWM (4%), PTI (3.9%), RINO (3.%)

Currently Short (according to size): no current position

Futures Accounts: no current position

Retail Hell (a trader's guide)

More of the same today. I'm not making much long-side money - since I'm so sick-conservative.

No problem. Not today. Today I'm shopping Sunday underwater hunt-and-grunt getaway packages. I can't leave yet, since I'm keeping on hand tomorrow night for the 90-minute set of Bob Dylan Christmas songs, but after that I'm out of here.

I know you guys like PCLN as a short (I'm still avoiding such frisky behavior, conservative as I am), but I'm a big customer of their product. I love arriving to far-flung corners of the world between 11Pm and midnight local time and getting home a couple of hours before the market's open on Monday.

Given my consumer habits (I'm gnawing on organic pigs knuckles just now, while warming last night's spaghetti, below), I'm pretty much the worst example of "going with what you know." 3-piece woot suits and rubber-band harpoons aren't going to sway the mainstream anytime soon.

What I've noticed though, as far as retail, is that if the stock is hot and I would never consider myself a likely customer of the product, I'm inclined to like the stock even more. Case in point at the moment would be ULTA Salon/Cosmetics (ULTA). The fact that the website is a gross violation of common sense and decency (credit Ignatius J. Reilly), gives me that much more confidence they are onto something I want to be a part of. Similar big winners of the past include things like Nutrisystems, Coach, Dress Barn, Chico's (love the fat-velvet look, btw), Ross from Hell Stores, Dollar in my pocket Tree, Big Lots (god save me), Walmart, True Religion, Barbie, Clap-on Clap-off, Klic-Clack, ZZZ-best Carpet System and Nordic Track!

I think Nordic Track was symbol CML at the time; one of the greatest ride-it up and short-em-down plays from the 1990's. Rubber-band technology (a favorite of mine, harpoon in hand) was the death of them. We loved Nordic Track dearly, but I was going to break my legs on purpose before getting on one of those rat traps.

You are correct, I still don't have much to say regarding the current market. In fact, I'm pulling in a couple of names long today (stepping out for now on SXCI, BCSI and I have silly-priced orders higher-up for a few others). I'm going to get smaller (likely, at least) and prepare for the inevitable underarm armageddon y'all been warning me about.

Actually, earnings begin flooding en mass starting Tuesday. I don't expect anything in particular, especially since I try to not expect just on principal, but given the lack of spirited direction on either side of the market at the moment I see no reason to have my neck out very far.

Undersea however, I intend to extend all appendages; bandaged or otherwise; apperati or not; and expect the worst.

-Total Position: ~2-to-1 net-long
-65% invested overall
-Pure-longs = 50%

Currently Long (according to size): DGW (7%), HRBN (6.7%), SWM (6.2%), WYN (5.3%), ULTA (5%), CLW (4.5%), HMIN (4%), CFSG (3.9%), PTI (3.8%), RINO (3.3%)

Currently Short (according to size):
-TWM-long (Russell 2k Dbl-short, reloaded today, 10%)
(Note: inverse-ETF TWM represents being dbl-short the respective R2k-index).
-TER (5.2%)

Futures Accounts: no current position