Friday, December 21, 2007

Wearing My Woot Suit

The Big W forming on the Russell and NYSE (noted Wednesday morning here) is saliva and well - sharp-penciled technicians can now call it confirmed - woot! Actually, the W thing is true in other indices as well, but the broader, smaller indices were weakest before this launch.

We could cool a bit now near-term (certainly now that the technicians are in the room), or we may just keep rising. However, I am not giving up my bloated position in the market yet, confirmation from the late-to-the-party-boys or not - the calendar at the moment says keep adding or sit on your hands.

I'm doing both.

This is saying a lot from me (who?), since you may have noticed the smart thing this year has consistently been to sell the rushes (at least by the close of the day we rush). However, something is fresh-and-different now (smells like a pine fresh deforest) AND next week has the seasonal slatherings of Christmas Present...

I remain bloated - fat -fat -fat - 300 lbs and no muscle!

Seriously - Monday is a half-day, pre-holiday session. It could be slow and boring, but I can (somewhat) assure you the leadership stocks will be up on the day. Unless we choke on all this butter later today, we are in the sweet spot still on Monday. After that is 3 of the most likely days for leadership stocks to rise in the year. You get my (pencil) point.

I'm adding breakout name ANSS here; about 2/3rds complete now at an ave, of 42.36.

ANSS is below my ave. now, not a great sign; I will add further only higher-up. But if it closes below the brkout, lower ~41.50, I will throw it to the wolves and move on - Don't hold breakout plays that cannot hold their brkout.

CEDC is the juciest breaking out today - but it is too far above the trigger-point already. The same happened to me yesterday by the time I caught onto BYI and LNN. The same the day before with some other(s). Tough to keep track - which is a fresh change for the market.

And I am looking to load further any qualified breakouts. To qualify I need 25+% and rising eps growth/rev; a vol pace 3-4 x's normal ave; and I need to buy no more than 2 or 3% (depending on beta) above breakout range.

That criteria eliminates most of the breakouts out there (thank god), which is a large reason I focus so much on poised set-ups (so I can get them leaving the station).

I'm also trimming any trouble here (very little so far). I blew out the SIGM position early today (ave. 61.99), as it took out yesterday's low. There is no buisness in lower-lows for an aggressive growth stock (w/ no news) on a day like today (SIGM has no news I can see without digging into possible others in the biz causing the problem - no time for losers right now). If it holds the breakout and 50-day levels below (~59.30/60.30), I'll reconsider; but I'm culling out deadwood due to having so many names and it was the least live of my too-many positions.

The million or so remaining positions here can be seen in yesterday's post (scroll towards bottom).

New breakouts (most are new today): CEDC, ANSS, BRKR, ICLR, STLD, (low vol), DECK (too small a base), TLEO, XNPT (no vol), FSLR (fresh Cramer-CNBC plug today and low vol - so caution there), BUCY (strong, not enough vol) LKQX, RIG (not enough vol), NBL (low vol), HMSY (low vol), ABAX (too small base), AYE (no vol), MEE (no vol).

[Edit: add AGU]

Poised and perhaps ready: LOGI, ADSK, GENZ, YGE, AAPL, AGU, MCRS, CRZO, MICC (boy, I goofed on letting that go yesterday), VIP, CPLA, GFIG, SUNH, CNQR. Another one I mentioned yesterday, TNH, is still a bit from the breakout - bu it could really fly if it can get above 139 or so. Keep a poisoned dart handy for that small-cap beast.

Normally I don't shop the tiny-caps, but this time of year, in a positive trend, I am happy to fire at the small guys.

There are more but I am busy (huh?). Maybe I will update again today, depending.

[excuse any edit issues - my guy Mable is out today]

Good trading!

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