Thursday, May 28, 2009
I may have spoke too soon yesterday. Like the end of Grizzly Man, where the guy decides to stay too-long into the pre-hibernation period and that new loner bear comes around whom he has no previous relationship with - that's the bear who eats his ass. No care to what a good guy he is/was. Chomps without reflection.
Well, maybe not that bad. You bears are sweating some. We're all sweating some. Wake me up when one of us is getting eaten.
We're back to murky, mushy action. Retail is taking body shots, following housing revisions and rising foreclosures (apparently, up to 8% of mortgages are on the stretching rack). Otherwise the market remains as half-full as it is half-empty. If you are picking good stocks to play (long or short) then you are doing alright. If you are expecting huge fireworks, then you are living in the wrong month.
I'm flat on the week, somehow!, but daddy still needs a new pair of snowshoes if you know what I mean. I'm focusing long (though lightly invested) until we can actually break this trend. If action waxes uglier now I will have to hedge at least; but so far I remain patient. If we resume higher and leadership is firm, I'll be happy to increase exposure.
I cut-back the Euro short last night and might be happier now if I had let it all go (it has recovered from last night's sell-off). I was bailed-out nicely this week, but if the dollar is truly weakening again I'm not going to take a second ride against the tide there.
Gold is at a 3-month high. I still favor LIHR, which broke out last week on reasonable volume. This has been a nice pair-trade to my dollar short. If you forced me I would admit the gold trade looks better than the dollar short (but what do I know anyway?).
As far as other longs, RIMM and that group of Telecom-Wireless equipment stocks remain quite firm, while the Internet-Content trio of CYOU, SNDA and NTES continue to suggest that institutional money has still got game(rs); and I continue to see ASIA (Asiainfo, from the Internet-Solutions group) as the most powerful, reasonable break-out leadership play. There are other bigger gainers out there, but I'm not swinging for 150% risers who've suddenly cured the need for cancer.
Tread well my friends.
Total Position: 100% net long, 38% invested
Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (9.4%), ASIA ( 6.5%), LIHR (6%), SNDA(5.8%), PZZA(4.3%), PEET (2.9%), MRVL(2.9%, reports this evening)
Currently Short (according to size): no current position [was just stopped on MDT]
-Short 20% Jun Euro last night, 1.3683 ave. (covered 10% last night, 1.3793)
-Short 20% Jun BR Pound, 1.5602 ave.