Classically Trained, for the Revolution

Showing posts with label pzza. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pzza. Show all posts

Thursday, June 04, 2009

Nicole and Dimed (out of currency shorts)


I'm in a semi-conscious state. Body aches flaring, nasal-drip flowing, delirious, sleep-deprived eyes waxing, wincing.

You know where this is going. In spite of physical drudgery, I'm free now from Euro-slaps and British Poundings. I'm camping happy.

Once again I slept (sort of) near my machine, watching over my currency shorts like a mother giraffe watches the runt. Talk about a brain drain - all that attention just to try to keep one ugly duckling from not afloating.

I'm fresh, I'm clean, I'm out of that hell and chomping at my psyche bit once more.

Now that I'm not so stuck I've released my jaws from this beast (I told you throughout it wasn't worth it, but I'm a foolish fighter sometimes; capable of attacking great whites...until it hurts). The primary goal of the futures accounts traded here is to push index futures on days where the action is either all-good or all-hell-breaking-loose. Frankly, I'm a better trader at that sort of thing and this currency smack is the latest reminder (I'm a better player than I am a gambler). If you see me Twitting trades in currencies, it had better be a daytrade, and going with the direction of that day's strong momentum. Otherwise I give you permission to rip the sickly, Linton-esque giraffe fuzzflesh from my bony backside and feed it to my stronger brethren. Let someone else make the overnight money!

Equities? Oh yeah, that's going well - what's so interesting about that? Yesterday was the beginning of the much-expected and logical pullback that we all considered so logical and likely. Too bad for you it was over before the day was through, eh?

If you get your opportunity now I suspect you'll wish you hadn't. Which is the same as saying that when this market lets you in easy the move higher is done.

I've studied this pain thing for some thousand years. I do my best to step over the dead bodies of my trading past and prosper now instead. I'll step over you, if you let me; and if I'm really jamming I can step over myself and still be home in time for supper. You are shutting off CNBC because it is inane and annoying. But I am listening to Trish Regan as I write, because she speaks so inversely eloquent I could kiss her all under. Kind of like the big lady that married the really really rich guy who was like one or two hundred years old. She had nothing but smiles for him I'm sure.

You know how the story ends. Okay not that story. No oily dog's going to take my breath away.

-Beast out

Total Position: 100% net-long; 48% invested

Currently Long (according to size): AU (5.5%), CYOU (5.1%), TQNT (new yesterday, 4.7%), ASIA (4.6%), SWN (4.6%), PZZA (4.4%), WFT (4.4%), RAX (4.3%), PEET (3.8%), SNDA (3.3%), NTAP (3.1%)

Currently Short (according to size): no current positions


Futures Accounts: no current position (re-shorted both Euro and BR Pound last night and covered on the ECB news/non-news which hit those markets early this morning)

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Mush!


I may have spoke too soon yesterday. Like the end of Grizzly Man, where the guy decides to stay too-long into the pre-hibernation period and that new loner bear comes around whom he has no previous relationship with - that's the bear who eats his ass. No care to what a good guy he is/was. Chomps without reflection.

Well, maybe not that bad. You bears are sweating some. We're all sweating some. Wake me up when one of us is getting eaten.

We're back to murky, mushy action. Retail is taking body shots, following housing revisions and rising foreclosures (apparently, up to 8% of mortgages are on the stretching rack). Otherwise the market remains as half-full as it is half-empty. If you are picking good stocks to play (long or short) then you are doing alright. If you are expecting huge fireworks, then you are living in the wrong month.

I'm flat on the week, somehow!, but daddy still needs a new pair of snowshoes if you know what I mean. I'm focusing long (though lightly invested) until we can actually break this trend. If action waxes uglier now I will have to hedge at least; but so far I remain patient. If we resume higher and leadership is firm, I'll be happy to increase exposure.

I cut-back the Euro short last night and might be happier now if I had let it all go (it has recovered from last night's sell-off). I was bailed-out nicely this week, but if the dollar is truly weakening again I'm not going to take a second ride against the tide there.

Gold is at a 3-month high. I still favor LIHR, which broke out last week on reasonable volume. This has been a nice pair-trade to my dollar short. If you forced me I would admit the gold trade looks better than the dollar short (but what do I know anyway?).

As far as other longs, RIMM and that group of Telecom-Wireless equipment stocks remain quite firm, while the Internet-Content trio of CYOU, SNDA and NTES continue to suggest that institutional money has still got game(rs); and I continue to see ASIA (Asiainfo, from the Internet-Solutions group) as the most powerful, reasonable break-out leadership play. There are other bigger gainers out there, but I'm not swinging for 150% risers who've suddenly cured the need for cancer.

Tread well my friends.

Total Position: 100% net long, 38% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (9.4%), ASIA ( 6.5%), LIHR (6%), SNDA(5.8%), PZZA(4.3%), PEET (2.9%), MRVL(2.9%, reports this evening)

Currently Short (according to size):
no current position [was just stopped on MDT]

Futures Accounts:
-Short 20% Jun Euro last night, 1.3683 ave. (covered 10% last night, 1.3793)
-Short 20% Jun BR Pound, 1.5602 ave.

Friday, May 15, 2009

Bellow Mellow (underwater basket weaving)

Still I refuse to post my thoughts concerning this pullback. But I remain sweet on Trish.

Her highest octave this morning was coincident with the highest prices on the day - imagine that:

"The market is off to the races today with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 44 points!"

44 points is a full half-percent. As I write this, we're down however...a full half-percent.

I know I'm stretching here, but I promised yesterday to show some value (Trish-value). It's a relatively quiet option-expiration session thus far. Trish was never likely to hit a home-run today. She did her standard best. I calculate CNBC and I are roughly even then on the day; some modest compensation received in exchange for having to listen to this barb.

Something's got to pay.

Regarding the current position here, while I did shift away from an aggressive short stance (late Wednesday/early Thursday), I've yet to really cover that side of my position (I had added leadership longs for balance and have not yet covered much in the way of shorts; the reason I am up to 76% invested).

These pivot longs are continuing to work thus far and fortunately for me are out-performing my shorts (in terms of percentage gained), so I have not yet been hit on this mkt-bounce higher (even though I've remained more short than long (and long-winded, sorry)).

If we deteriorate much further the second half today, I will look to lighten the weaker longs to prepare for Monday. Monday's following Op-ex tend towards dreadful when/if the Friday expiration goes poorly.

What's got to pay?

It's Friday my reader friend. I can't leave before the close, since I'm babysitting this tidy group below. But ring that bell in a few hours and I am out the door, ready to roil!

36 hours of spearing, searing, pelting and svelting.

Bone weekend!

Total Position: 1.42-to-1 net short (plays 1.85-to-1 net short considering leverage), 76% invested

Currently Long (according to size): CYOU (6.3%), SNDA (5.9%), WNR (5.1%), NFLX (4.1%), PMCS (3.7%), DRI (3.7%)

Currently Short (according to size):
TWM-long (10.8%; Russell2k Dbl-short), AAPL (7.6%), USB (6.4%), STRA (5.1%), AIPC (4.5%), PZZA (4%), BKE (3.4%), SRS-long (3.3%; US Real Est. Dbl-short)
(Note: inverse-ETFs TWM and SRS represent being dbl-short the respective indices)

Futures Accounts: Covered SPX Jun Wednesday 880.75, from 912.75; Remain short 40% Jun Euro FX, from 1.3585